IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea12/124884.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is Yield Endogenous to Price? An Empirical Evaluation of Inter- and Intra-Seasonal Corn Yield Response

Author

Listed:
  • Goodwin, Barry K.
  • Marra, Michele C.
  • Piggott, Nicholas E.
  • Mueller, Steffen

Abstract

An extensive empirical literature has examined the behavior of crop yields over time. Corn yields have been characterized by signficant increases reflecting an array of technological developments that have substantially boosted productivity. While much of the focus has been on modeling deterministic and possibly stochastic trends in yields over time, an equally important question involves the extent to which yield changes may occur in response to price. This paper addresses two dimensions of this issue. We first look at the extent to which realized yields (i.e., at harvest) tend to be influenced by planting{time quotes of post{harvest futures contracts. Second, we examine the potential for intra{seasonal responsiveness of yields to significant price swings. The latter response is especially important in light of recent arguments that weather offers identification through instruments that are completely exogenous to market conditions; a view often expressed in terms of a "natural experiment." We challenge this argument by finding that the potential does exist for yields to be affected by significant price changes that occur early in the growing season.

Suggested Citation

  • Goodwin, Barry K. & Marra, Michele C. & Piggott, Nicholas E. & Mueller, Steffen, 2012. "Is Yield Endogenous to Price? An Empirical Evaluation of Inter- and Intra-Seasonal Corn Yield Response," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124884, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea12:124884
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.124884
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/124884/files/Goodwin_Marra_Piggott_Mueller.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.124884?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roman Keeney & Thomas W. Hertel, 2009. "The Indirect Land Use Impacts of United States Biofuel Policies: The Importance of Acreage, Yield, and Bilateral Trade Responses," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(4), pages 895-909.
    2. Choi, Jung-Sup & Helmberger, Peter G., 1993. "How Sensitive Are Crop Yields To Price Changes And Farm Programs?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 25(1), pages 1-8, July.
    3. Huang, Haixiao & Khanna, Madhu, 2010. "An Econometric Analysis of U.S. Crop Yield and Cropland Acreage: Implications for the Impact of Climate Change," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 61527, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Carl H. Nelson & Paul V. Preckel, 1989. "The Conditional Beta Distribution as a Stochastic Production Function," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(2), pages 370-378.
    5. Choi, Jung-Sup & Helmberger, Peter G., 1993. "How Sensitive are Crop Yields to Price Changes and Farm Programs?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 237-244, July.
    6. Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2013. "Identifying Supply and Demand Elasticities of Agricultural Commodities: Implications for the US Ethanol Mandate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2265-2295, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wyatt Thompson & Joe Dewbre & Patrick Westfhoff & Kateryna Schroeder & Simone Pieralli & Ignacio Perez Dominguez, 2017. "Introducing medium-and long-term productivity responses in Aglink-Cosimo," JRC Research Reports JRC105738, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    2. Thomas Hertel & Jevgenijs Steinbuks & Uris Baldos, 2013. "Competition for land in the global bioeconomy," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(s1), pages 129-138, November.
    3. Donato, Romano & Carraro, Alessandro, 2015. "Modelling Acreage, Production and Yield Supply Response to Domestic Price Volatility," 2015 Fourth Congress, June 11-12, 2015, Ancona, Italy 207278, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    4. Thompson, Wyatt & Dewbre, Joe & Pieralli, Simone & Schroeder, Kateryna & Pérez Domínguez, Ignacio & Westhoff, Patrick, 2019. "Long-term crop productivity response and its interaction with cereal markets and energy prices," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 1-9.
    5. Fabio Gaetano Santeramo & Emilia Lamonaca & Francesco Contò & Gianluca Nardone & Antonio Stasi, 2018. "Drivers of grain price volatility: a cursory critical review," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 64(8), pages 347-356.
    6. Fabio Gaetano Santeramo & Emilia Lamonaca, 2019. "On the drivers of global grain price volatility: an empirical investigation," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 65(1), pages 31-42.
    7. Yao, Ling & Chen, Qihui & Wu, Laping, 2018. "Heterogeneous supply response: Does high price expectation attenuate the inverse farm size-productivity relationship in China?," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274363, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid & Jerome Dumortier & Ryan Goodrich, 2020. "Incorporating Sub‐National Brazilian Agricultural Production and Land‐Use into U.S. Biofuel Policy Evaluation," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(3), pages 497-523, September.
    9. Rezwanul Parvez & David C Roberts & David Ripplinger, 2017. "Factors Impacting Crop Acreage Decision: A Case Study of North Dakota Agriculture," Agricultural Development, Sophia, vol. 1(1), pages 16-36.
    10. Hyunseok Kim & GianCarlo Moschini, 2018. "The Dynamics of Supply: U.S. Corn and Soybeans in the Biofuel Era," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 94(4), pages 593-613.
    11. Hertel, Thomas W. & Baldos, Uris Lantz C., 2013. "Looking back to move forward: Evaluating global agricultural land use in integrated assessment models," Conference papers 332383, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    12. Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano, 2017. "Market Fundamentals And International Grain Price Volatility," 2017 International Congress, August 28-September 1, 2017, Parma, Italy 260908, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carriquiry, Miguel & Elobeid, Amani & Goodrich, Ryan, 2016. "Comparing the trends and strength of determinants to deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon in consideration of biofuel policies in Brazil and the United States," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235888, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid & Jerome Dumortier & Ryan Goodrich, 2020. "Incorporating Sub‐National Brazilian Agricultural Production and Land‐Use into U.S. Biofuel Policy Evaluation," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(3), pages 497-523, September.
    3. Shon M Ferguson & Johan Gars, 2020. "Measuring the impact of agricultural production shocks on international trade flows," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 47(3), pages 1094-1132.
    4. Wyatt Thompson & Joe Dewbre & Patrick Westfhoff & Kateryna Schroeder & Simone Pieralli & Ignacio Perez Dominguez, 2017. "Introducing medium-and long-term productivity responses in Aglink-Cosimo," JRC Research Reports JRC105738, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    5. Xie, Lunyu & MacDonald, Sarah L. & Auffhammer, Maximilian & Jaiswal, Deepak & Berck, Peter, 2019. "Environment or food: Modeling future land use patterns of miscanthus for bioenergy using fine scale data," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 225-236.
    6. Boussios, David & Barkley, Andrew P., 2012. "Kansas Grain Supply Response to Economic and Biophysical Factors, 1977-2007," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124385, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Traboulsi, Mohamad Rafic, 2013. "Effect of Climate Change on Supply Response of Florida Citrus Crops 1980-2010," 2013 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2013, Orlando, Florida 143063, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    8. Jouf, C. & Lawson, L.A., 2022. "European farmers’ responses to higher commodity prices: Cropland expansion or forestlands preservation?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    9. Lunyu Xie & Sarah M. Lewis & Maximilian Auffhammer & Peter Berck, 2019. "Heat in the Heartland: Crop Yield and Coverage Response to Climate Change Along the Mississippi River," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(2), pages 485-513, June.
    10. Shahbaz Bhatti & Sarfraz Hassan & Khalid Mushtaq & Kamran Javed, 2020. "Investigation The Impact Of Climate Change On Productivity Of Cotton: Empirical Evidence From Cotton Zone," Big Data In Agriculture (BDA), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 1-4, February.
    11. Asci, Serhat & Borisova, Tatiana & VanSickle, John J., 2015. "Role of economics in developing fertilizer best management practices," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 251-261.
    12. Finger, Robert, 2010. "Evidence of slowing yield growth - The example of Swiss cereal yields," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 175-182, April.
    13. Stephen P. Holland & Jonathan E. Hughes & Christopher R. Knittel & Nathan C. Parker, 2013. "Unintended Consequences of Transportation Carbon Policies: Land-Use, Emissions, and Innovation," NBER Working Papers 19636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. P. Ciaian, 2007. "Land use changes in the EU: Policy and macro impact analysis," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 53(12), pages 565-579.
    15. Thomas, Alban & Chakir, Raja, 2020. "Unintended consequences of environmental policies: the case of set-aside and agricultural intensification," TSE Working Papers 20-1066, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    16. Thomas, Timothy S., 2015. "US maize data reveals adaptation to heat and water stress:," IFPRI discussion papers 1485, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    17. Miljkovic, Dragan & Ripplinger, David & Shaik, Saleem, 2016. "Impact of biofuel policies on the use of land and energy in U.S. agriculture," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1089-1098.
    18. Amalavoyal Chari & Elaine M Liu & Shing-Yi Wang & Yongxiang Wang, 2021. "Property Rights, Land Misallocation, and Agricultural Efficiency in China [Misallocation, Selection and Productivity: A Quantitative Analysis with Panel Data from China]," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 88(4), pages 1831-1862.
    19. Edison, Andy Mulyana & Jie, Ferry & Parton, Kevin A., 2011. "The Analysis Of Supply Response Of Rice Under Risk In Jambi Province," 2011 Conference (55th), February 8-11, 2011, Melbourne, Australia 113736, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    20. Boussios, David & Barkley, Andrew, 2014. "Producer Expectations and the Extensive Margin in Grain Supply Response," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(3), pages 335-356, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crop Production/Industries;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea12:124884. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.