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An Econometric Analysis of U.S. Crop Yield and Cropland Acreage: Implications for the Impact of Climate Change


  • Huang, Haixiao
  • Khanna, Madhu


A SIGNIFICANTLY REVISED/UPDATED AND EDITED VERSION OF THIS PAPER WAS PUBLISHED AS: Citation: Miao, Ruiqing, Madhu Khanna and Haixiao Huang. “Responsiveness of Crop Yield and Acreage to Prices and Climate.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics (2015) doi: 10.1093/ajae/aav025 Abstract: We investigate the effect of crop price and climate variables on rainfed corn and soybean yields and acreage in the United States using a large panel dataset for the 1977–2007 period. Instrumental variables are used to control for endogeneity of prices in yield and acreage regressions, while allowing for spatially auto-correlated errors. We find that an increase in corn price has a statistically significant positive impact on corn yield, but the effect of soybean price on soybean yields is not statistically significant. The estimated price elasticities of corn yield and acreage are 0.23 and 0.45, respectively. Of the increase in corn supply caused by an increase in corn price, we find that 33.8% is due to price-induced yield enhancement and 66.2% is due to price-induced acreage expansion. We also find that the impact of climate change on corn production ranges from −7% to −41% and on soybean ranges from −8% to −45%, depending on the climate change scenarios, time horizon, and global climate models used to predict climate change. We show that the aggregate net impact of omitting price variables is an overestimation of the effect of climate change on corn yield by up to 9% and on soybean yield by up to 15%. Link: kt&keytype=ref

Suggested Citation

  • Huang, Haixiao & Khanna, Madhu, 2010. "An Econometric Analysis of U.S. Crop Yield and Cropland Acreage: Implications for the Impact of Climate Change," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 61527, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea10:61527

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Louise Cord & Quentin Wodon, 2001. "Do Agricultural Programs in Mexico Alleviate Poverty? Evidence from the Ejido Sector," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 38(114), pages 239-256.
    2. Raymond Robertson, 2000. "Wage Shocks and North American Labor-Market Integration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 742-764, September.
    3. Chiquiar, Daniel, 2008. "Globalization, regional wage differentials and the Stolper-Samuelson Theorem: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 70-93, January.
    4. Baylis, Kathy & Garduño-Rivera, Rafael & Piras, Gianfranco, 2012. "The distributional effects of NAFTA in Mexico: Evidence from a panel of municipalities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 286-302.
    5. Paul Winters & Benjamin Davis, 2009. "Designing a Programme to Support Smallholder Agriculture in Mexico: Lessons from PROCAMPO and Oportunidades," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 27(5), pages 617-642, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Raza, Amar & Ahmad, Munir, 2015. "Analysing the Impact of Climate Change on Cotton Productivity in Punjab and Sindh, Pakistan," MPRA Paper 72867, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Attavanich, Witsanu & McCarl, Bruce A. & Fuller, Stephen W. & Vedenov, Dmitry V. & Ahmedov, Zafarbek, 2011. "The Effect of Climate Change on Transportation Flows and Inland Waterways Due to Climate-Induced Shifts in Crop Production Patterns," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 109241, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Woodard, Joshua D. & Chiu Verteramo, Leslie & Miller, Alyssa P., 2015. "Adaptation of U.S. Agricultural Production to Drought and Climate Change," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205903, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association;Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    4. Manzamasso, Hodjo & Acharya, Ram N. & Blayney, Don P., 2016. "Corn and Rice Yield and Acreage Response to Prices, Policy and Climate Factors in Togo," 2016 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2016, San Antonio, Texas 230082, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    5. Donato, Romano & Carraro, Alessandro, 2015. "Modelling Acreage, Production and Yield Supply Response to Domestic Price Volatility," 2015 Fourth Congress, June 11-12, 2015, Ancona, Italy 207278, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    6. Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid & Ryan Goodrich, 2016. "Comparing the trends and strength of determinants to deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon in consideration of biofuel policies in Brazil and the United States," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 16-12, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    7. Meyer, Kevin Michael, 2017. "Three essays on environmental and resource economics," ISU General Staff Papers 201701010800006585, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.


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