Climate Change’s Influence on Dairy Farming in Punjab, Pakistan: Effects on Milk Production, Farmers’ Views, and Future Adaptation Strategies

The changing climate poses a significant challenge to the dairy industry, particularly in Punjab’s Faisalabad region, a central milk production hub. Rising temperatures and humidity exacerbate heat stress, endangering rural livelihoods. This study quantifies the impacts of these climatic stressors on milk yield, evaluates smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climate risks, and projects future losses to guide adaptive policymaking. By integrating Likert-scale surveys of 450 dairy farmers with advanced panel regression models (including fixed and random effects) and a dynamic panel generalized method of moments (GMM) approach for forecasting, we analyzed eight years of milk production and climate data (2017–2024) under IPCC scenarios (+2 °C, +10% humidity). The results revealed significant declines: a 1 °C temperature increase reduced milk yields by 1.72 L per month ( p < 0.01), while a 1% rise in humidity decreased output by 0.59 L per month ( p < 0.01). Compounded losses under combined stressors reached 2.25 L per month, with hotter regions (Faisalabad’s semi-arid zone) experiencing the steepest declines. Farmers’ perceptions are closely aligned with empirical trends, identifying heat humidity interactions as the most critical risks. To mitigate these losses, adaptive strategies such as heat-resistant cattle breeds, humidity-responsive cooling systems, and targeted financial support for smallholders are critical. This study connects farmers’ insights with econometric modeling to provide practical strategies to enhance resilience in Punjab’s dairy sector.