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Environment or food: Modeling future land use patterns of miscanthus for bioenergy using fine scale data

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  • Xie, Lunyu
  • MacDonald, Sarah L.
  • Auffhammer, Maximilian
  • Jaiswal, Deepak
  • Berck, Peter

Abstract

Using fine-scale panel data and an econometric model, we predict land use change in the Midwestern United States if a new bioenergy crop, Miscanthus × Giganteus (miscanthus), is introduced. To explain farmers' current crop choices, we use a local, limited dependent variable regression based on soil and weather characteristics. To this model, we add miscanthus as a new crop, based on its place dependent BioCro model-predicted yield. We find that the vast majority of land used to grow miscanthus will come from land now used for non-major crops, pasture, woodland, and other uses. This implies that miscanthus can help mitigate climate change by displacing oil usage without causing food conflict.

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  • Xie, Lunyu & MacDonald, Sarah L. & Auffhammer, Maximilian & Jaiswal, Deepak & Berck, Peter, 2019. "Environment or food: Modeling future land use patterns of miscanthus for bioenergy using fine scale data," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 225-236.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:161:y:2019:i:c:p:225-236
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.03.013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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