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Aggregate Stability and Balanced‐Budget Rules

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  • MATTEO F. GHILARDI
  • RAFFAELE ROSSI

Abstract

It has been shown that under perfect competition and a Cobb‐Douglas production function, a basic real business cycle model may exhibit indeterminacy and sunspot fluctuations when income tax rates are determined by a balanced‐budget rule (BBR). This paper introduces in an otherwise standard real business cycle model a more general and data‐coherent class of production functions, namely, a constant elasticity of substitution production function. We show that the degree of substitutability between production factors is a key ingredient to understanding the (de)stabilizing properties of a BBR. Then we calibrate the model consistently with the empirical evidence; that is, we set the elasticity of substitution between labor and capital below unity. We show that compared to the Cobb‐Douglas case, the likelihood of indeterminacy under a BBR is greatly reduced in the U.S., the EU, and the UK.

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  • Matteo F. Ghilardi & Raffaele Rossi, 2014. "Aggregate Stability and Balanced‐Budget Rules," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(8), pages 1787-1809, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:46:y:2014:i:8:p:1787-1809
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12166
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    Cited by:

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    2. McKnight, Stephen, 2017. "Are Consumption Taxes Preferable To Income Taxes For Preventing Macroeconomic Instability?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 1023-1058, June.
    3. David R. Stockman, 2022. "Balanced‐budget rules: Local indeterminacy and bifurcations," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 18(2), pages 109-136, June.
    4. Maxime Menuet & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2019. "The Peril of Fiscal Rules," Post-Print hal-02314996, HAL.
    5. Abad, Nicolas & Seegmuller, Thomas & Venditti, Alain, 2017. "Nonseparable Preferences Do Not Rule Out Aggregate Instability Under Balanced-Budget Rules: A Note," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 259-277, January.
    6. Maxime MENUET & Alexandru MINEA & Patrick VILLIEU, 2017. "Public Debt, Endogenous Growth Cycles and Indeterminacy," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2467, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    7. Nourry, Carine & Seegmuller, Thomas & Venditti, Alain, 2013. "Aggregate instability under balanced-budget consumption taxes: A re-examination," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(5), pages 1977-2006.
    8. Abad, Nicolas & Venditti, Alain, 2021. "A Note On Balanced-Budget Income Taxes And Aggregate (In)Stability In Multi-Sector Economies," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 824-843, April.
    9. Nicolas Abad & Thomas Seegmuller & Alain Venditti, 2012. "Aggregate Instability under Labor Income Taxation and Balanced-Budget Rules: Preferences Matter," AMSE Working Papers 1217, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised Apr 2012.
    10. Murphy, R. & Palan, R., 2015. "Why the UK’s Fiscal Charter is Doomed to Fail: An analysis of Austerity Economics during the First and the Second Cameron Governments," CITYPERC Working Paper Series 2015/03, Department of International Politics, City University London.
    11. Kevin x.d. Huang & Qinglai Meng & Jianpo Xue, 2019. "Capital Income Taxation and Aggregate Instability," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 19-00007, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    12. Micheli, Martin, 2020. "Aggregate stability under a budget rule and labor mobility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 510-519.
    13. Kevin X.D. Huang & Qinglai Meng & Jianpo Xue, 2019. "Capital Income Taxation and Aggregate Instability," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 19-00007, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    14. Vlassis Missos, 2021. "Introducing a Safety Net: The Effects of Neoliberal Policy on Welfare, Poverty, and the Net Social Wage during the Greek Crisis," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 53(1), pages 58-76, March.
    15. Kevin X.D. Huang & Qinglai Meng & Jianpo Xue, 2018. "Balanced‐Budget Rules and Aggregate Instability: The Role of Endogenous Capital Utilization," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(8), pages 1669-1709, December.
    16. Gerasimos T. Soldatos, 2021. "In/Estabilidad bajo el impuesto sobre la renta ideal y el impuesto sobre el consumo ideal," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 44(124), pages 33-42, Enero.
    17. Maxime Menuet & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2019. "Budget Rules, Distortionnary Taxes, and Aggregate Instability: A reappraisal," Working Papers hal-02153856, HAL.
    18. Jianpo Xue & Chong K. Yip, 2015. "Balanced-Budget Rules, Elasticity of Substitution, and Macroeconomic (In)Stability," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 17(2), pages 196-218, April.
    19. Fujisaki, Seiya, 2016. "Aggregate Stability in Monetary Economy with Consumption Tax and Taylor Rule," MPRA Paper 69833, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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