IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/ectrin/v32y2024i1p73-107.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Elections hinder firms' access to credit

Author

Listed:
  • Florian Léon
  • Laurent Weill

Abstract

To analyze whether the occurrence of elections affects access to credit for firms, we perform an investigation using firm‐level data covering 44 developed and developing countries. The results show that elections impair access to credit. Specifically, firms have lower access to credit in election years and pre‐election years as elections exacerbate political uncertainty. While higher borrower discouragement is a tangible negative effect of elections, their occurrence per se does not seem to affect loan acceptance by banks. We also document that the negative relationship between elections and credit access is shaped by country and election characteristics as well as firm characteristics.

Suggested Citation

  • Florian Léon & Laurent Weill, 2024. "Elections hinder firms' access to credit," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(1), pages 73-107, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:ectrin:v:32:y:2024:i:1:p:73-107
    DOI: 10.1111/ecot.12377
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecot.12377
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/ecot.12377?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Han, Liang & Fraser, Stuart & Storey, David J., 2009. "Are good or bad borrowers discouraged from applying for loans? Evidence from US small business credit markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 415-424, February.
    2. Gatti, Roberta & Love, Inessa, 2006. "Does access to credit improve productivity ? Evidence from Bulgarian firms," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3921, The World Bank.
    3. Karsten Müller, 2023. "Electoral Cycles in Macroprudential Regulation," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 295-322, November.
    4. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Laeven, Luc & Maksimovic, Vojislav, 2006. "The determinants of financing obstacles," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 932-952, October.
    5. Azzimonti, Marina, 2018. "Partisan conflict and private investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 114-131.
    6. Craig O. Brown & I. Serdar Dinç, 2005. "The Politics of Bank Failures: Evidence from Emerging Markets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(4), pages 1413-1444.
    7. Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1988. "Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 55(1), pages 1-16.
    8. Florian Englmaier & Till Stowasser, 2017. "Electoral Cycles in Savings Bank Lending," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 296-354.
    9. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    10. A. Colin Cameron & Douglas L. Miller, 2015. "A Practitioner’s Guide to Cluster-Robust Inference," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 317-372.
    11. Brandon Julio & Youngsuk Yook, 2012. "Political Uncertainty and Corporate Investment Cycles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 45-84, February.
    12. Scott R. Baker & Aniket Baksy & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Jonathan Rodden, 2020. "Elections, Political Polarization, and Economic Uncertainty," Working Papers 2020-145, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    13. Clarke, George R.G. & Cull, Robert & Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad, 2006. "Foreign bank participation and access to credit across firms in developing countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 774-795, December.
    14. Liu, Wai-Man & Ngo, Phong T.H., 2014. "Elections, political competition and bank failure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 251-268.
    15. Ryan, Robert M. & O’Toole, Conor M. & McCann, Fergal, 2014. "Does bank market power affect SME financing constraints?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 495-505.
    16. Knyazeva, Anzhela & Knyazeva, Diana & Stiglitz, Joseph, 2009. "Ownership changes and access to external financing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1804-1816, October.
    17. William D. Nordhaus, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 42(2), pages 169-190.
    18. Chakravarty, Sugato & Xiang, Meifang, 2013. "The international evidence on discouraged small businesses," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 63-82.
    19. Jun Qian & Philip E. Strahan, 2007. "How Laws and Institutions Shape Financial Contracts: The Case of Bank Loans," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(6), pages 2803-2834, December.
    20. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Zhu, Yun, 2014. "Political uncertainty and bank loan contracting," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 281-286.
    21. Kee‐Hong Bae & Vidhan K. Goyal, 2009. "Creditor Rights, Enforcement, and Bank Loans," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 823-860, April.
    22. Anne-Laure Delatte & Adrien Matray & Noémie Pinardon-Touati, 2020. "Private Credit Under Political Influence: Evidence from France," Working Papers 2020-56, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    23. Greene, William, 2010. "Testing hypotheses about interaction terms in nonlinear models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 291-296, May.
    24. Fafchamps, Marcel & Schündeln, Matthias, 2013. "Local financial development and firm performance: Evidence from Morocco," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 15-28.
    25. Pierre Mandon & Antoine Cazals, 2019. "Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation By Leaders Versus Manipulation By Researchers? Evidence From A Meta‐Regression Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 274-308, February.
    26. Roberta Gatti & Inessa Love, 2008. "Does access to credit improve productivity? Evidence from Bulgaria1," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(3), pages 445-465, July.
    27. Osei-Tutu, Francis & Weill, Laurent, 2023. "Democracy favors access to credit of firms," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    28. Daniel Carvalho, 2014. "The Real Effects of Government-Owned Banks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 577-609, April.
    29. Florian Englmaier & Till Stowasser, 2017. "Electoral Cycles in Savings Bank Lending," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 296-354.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Florian Léon & Laurent Weill, 2021. "Elections Hinder Firms' Access to Credit," Working Papers hal-03462407, HAL.
    2. Florian LEON & Laurent WEILL, 2021. "Elections Hinder Firms’ Access to Credit," Working Papers of LaRGE Research Center 2021-03, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (LaRGE), Université de Strasbourg.
    3. repec:zbw:bofitp:2022_003 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Müller, Karsten, 2019. "Electoral cycles in macroprudential regulation," ESRB Working Paper Series 106, European Systemic Risk Board.
    5. Anne-Laure Delatte & Adrien Matray & Noémie Pinardon-Touati, 2020. "Private Credit Under Political Influence: Evidence from France," Working Papers 2020-56, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    6. Yin-Siang Huang & Iftekhar Hasan & Ying-Chen Huang & Chih-Yung Lin, 2021. "Political Uncertainty and Bank Loan Contracts: Does Government Quality Matter?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 157-185, December.
    7. Osei-Tutu, Francis & Weill, Laurent, 2023. "Democracy favors access to credit of firms," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    8. Matousek, Roman & Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Papachristopoulou, Andromachi, 2020. "Policy uncertainty and the capital shortfall of global financial firms," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    9. Andreas Kern & Puspa Amri, 2021. "Political credit cycles," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 76-108, March.
    10. Çağatay Bircan & Orkun Saka, 2021. "Lending Cycles and Real Outcomes: Costs of Political Misalignment," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(639), pages 2763-2796.
    11. Janbaz, Mehdi & Hassan, M. Kabir & Floreani, Josanco & Dreassi, Alberto & Jiménez, Alfredo, 2022. "Political risk in banks: A review and agenda," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    12. Çağatay Bircan & Orkun Saka, 2021. "Lending Cycles and Real Outcomes: Costs of Political Misalignment," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(639), pages 2763-2796.
    13. Francis OSEI-TUTU & Laurent WEILL, 2023. "Regional Favoritism and Access to Credit," Working Papers of LaRGE Research Center 2023-04, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (LaRGE), Université de Strasbourg.
    14. Bircan, Çağatay & Saka, Orkun, 2019. "Lending cycles and real outcomes: Costs of political misalignment," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    15. repec:zbw:bofitp:2019_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Woo‐Jong Lee & Jeffrey Pittman & Walid Saffar, 2020. "Political Uncertainty and Cost Stickiness: Evidence from National Elections around the World," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(2), pages 1107-1139, June.
    17. Osei-Tutu, Francis & Weill, Laurent, 2022. "Bank efficiency and access to credit: International evidence," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(3).
    18. Faraz, Naseem & Rockmore, Marc, 2020. "Election cycles in public credit: Credit provision and default rates in Pakistan," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    19. Francis OSEI-TUTU & Laurent WEILL, 2020. "Does Access to Credit Come with Access to Voting? Democracy and Firm Financing Constraints," Working Papers of LaRGE Research Center 2020-04, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (LaRGE), Université de Strasbourg.
    20. Fungáčová, Zuzana & Kerola, Eeva & Weill, Laurent, 2024. "European banks are not immune to national elections," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2024, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    21. Revelli, Federico, 2019. "The electoral migration cycle," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 461-482.
    22. Koetter, Michael & Popov, Alexander, 2018. "Politics, banks, and sub-sovereign debt: Unholy trinity or divine coincidence?," Discussion Papers 53/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:ectrin:v:32:y:2024:i:1:p:73-107. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)2577-6983 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.