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Electoral cycles in savings bank lending

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  • Stowasser, Till
  • Englmaier, Florian

Abstract

We provide causal evidence that German savings banks where local politicians are by law involved in their management systematically adjust lending policies in response to local electoral cycles. The different timing of county elections across states and the existence of a control group of cooperative banks that are very similar to savings banks but lack their political connectedness allow for clean identification of causal effects of county elections on savings banks lending. These effects are economically meaningful and robust to various specifications. Moreover, politically induced lending increases in incumbent party entrenchment and in the contestedness of upcoming elections.

Suggested Citation

  • Stowasser, Till & Englmaier, Florian, 2013. "Electoral cycles in savings bank lending," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79897, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:79897
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Florian Englmaier & Till Stowasser, 2013. "Electoral Cycles in Savings Bank Lending," CESifo Working Paper Series 4402, CESifo Group Munich.
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    7. Englmaier, Florian & Stowasser, Till, 2013. "Electoral cycles in savings bank lending," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 508, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
    8. Hella Engerer, 2006. "Vom Dreisäulensystem zum Baustein des europäischen Hauses: Wandel von Eigentum und Wettbewerb im deutschen Bankensektor," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 75(4), pages 11-32.
    9. Akhmed Akhmedov & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2004. "Opportunistic Political Cycles: Test in a Young Democracy Setting," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, pages 1301-1338.
    10. Florian Englmaier & Till Stowasser, 2017. "Electoral Cycles in Savings Bank Lending," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 296-354.
    11. Alberto Alesina & Nouriel Roubini & Gerald D. Cohen, 1997. "Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262510944, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Haskamp, Ulrich, 2017. "Improving the forecasts of European regional banks' profitability with machine learning algorithms," Ruhr Economic Papers 705, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    2. Englmaier, Florian & Stowasser, Till, 2013. "Electoral cycles in savings bank lending," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 508, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
    3. Ghosh, Saibal, 2016. "Political transition and bank performance: How important was the Arab Spring?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, pages 372-382.
    4. Florian Englmaier & Till Stowasser, 2017. "Electoral Cycles in Savings Bank Lending," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 296-354.
    5. Dirk Foremny & Ronny Freier & Marc-Daniel Moessinger & Mustafa Yeter, 2014. "Overlapping Political Budget Cycles in the Legislative and the Executive," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1429, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Belke, Ansgar & Haskamp, Ulrich & Setzer, Ralph, 2016. "Regional bank efficiency and its effect on regional growth in “normal” and “bad” times," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, pages 413-426.
    7. Belke, Ansgar & Setzer, Ralph & Haskamp, Ulrich, 2016. "Bank efficiency and regional growth in Europe: new evidence from micro-data," Working Paper Series 1983, European Central Bank.
    8. Glitz, Albrecht & Meyersson, Erik, 2017. "Industrial Espionage and Productivity," IZA Discussion Papers 10816, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    9. José-Luis Peydró & Gabriel Jiménez & Rafael Repullo & Jesús Saurina, 2017. "Burning money? Government lending in a credit crunch," Economics Working Papers 1577, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    10. Gropp, Reint E. & Saadi, Vahid, 2015. "Electoral Credit Supply Cycles Among German Savings Banks," IWH Online 11/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    11. Behn, Markus & Haselmann, Rainer & Kick, Thomas & Vig, Vikrant, 2015. "The political economy of bank bailouts," IMFS Working Paper Series 86, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    12. Martin, Thorsten, 2017. "You shall not build! (until tomorrow) [:] Electoral cycles and housing policies in Germany," MPRA Paper 78998, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Schoors, Koen & Weill, Laurent, 2017. "Russia's 1999–2000 election cycle and the politics-banking interface," BOFIT Discussion Papers 17/2017, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    14. Dirk Foremny & Ronny Freier & Marc-Daniel Moessinger & Mustafa Yeter, 2015. "Overlapping political budget cycles in the legislative and the executive," Working Papers 2015/1, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    15. Michael Anyadike-Danes & Carl-Magnus Bjuggren & Sandra Gottschalk & Werner Hölzl & Dan Johansson & Mika Maliranta & Anja Myrann, 2015. "An international cohort comparison of size effects on job growth," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 821-844, April.
    16. Belke, Ansgar & Osowski, Thomas, 2016. "Measuring fiscal spillovers in EMU and beyond: A Global VAR approach," CEPS Papers 12109, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    17. Haselmann, Rainer & Schoenherr, David & Vig, Vikrant, 2017. "Rent-seeking in elite networks," SAFE Working Paper Series 132, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
    18. Lisandra Flach & Florian Unger, 2016. "Quality and Gravity in International Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 6080, CESifo Group Munich.
    19. Koetter, Michael & Krause, Thomas & Tonzer, Lena, 2017. "Delay determinants of European Banking Union implementation," IWH Discussion Papers 24/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D73 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Bureaucracy; Administrative Processes in Public Organizations; Corruption
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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