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The interplay of geopolitics and agricultural commodity prices

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  • Raghav Goyal
  • Edouard Mensah
  • Sandro Steinbach

Abstract

This article uses the time‐varying parameter vector autoregressive model to assess the impact of geopolitical risk and shocks on agricultural commodity markets, accounting for demand—exports; supply—input prices; inventory; speculation; and economic fluctuations. The results show that geopolitical risks significantly impact corn and soybean futures prices and market behaviors with context‐specific implications in the short to medium term. In addition, heightened geopolitical risk during the Russia–Ukraine war increased oil prices and indirectly elevated agricultural commodity prices. These insights are crucial for agricultural risk management, informing federal policies and forecasting future price trends in an increasingly uncertain global market environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Raghav Goyal & Edouard Mensah & Sandro Steinbach, 2024. "The interplay of geopolitics and agricultural commodity prices," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(4), pages 1533-1562, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:apecpp:v:46:y:2024:i:4:p:1533-1562
    DOI: 10.1002/aepp.13481
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