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The Interplay of Geopolitics and Agricultural Commodity Prices

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  • Goyal, Raghav
  • Mensah, Edouard
  • Steinbach, Sandro

Abstract

This article uses the time‐varying parameter vector autoregressive model to assess the impact of geopolitical risk and shocks on agricultural commodity markets, accounting for demand—exports; supply—input prices; inventory; speculation; and economic fluctuations. The results show that geopolitical risks significantly impact corn and soybean futures prices and market behaviors with context‐specific implications in the short to medium term. In addition, heightened geopolitical risk during the Russia–Ukraine war increased oil prices and indirectly elevated agricultural commodity prices. These insights are crucial for agricultural risk management, informing federal policies and forecasting future price trends in an increasingly uncertain global market environment.
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Suggested Citation

  • Goyal, Raghav & Mensah, Edouard & Steinbach, Sandro, 2023. "The Interplay of Geopolitics and Agricultural Commodity Prices," 2023: The Future of (Ag-) Trade and Trade Governance in Times of Economic Sanctions and Declining Multilateralism, December 10-12, Clearwater Beach, FL 339507, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iats23:339507
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.339507
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    Keywords

    Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; International Relations/Trade;
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