IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/uwp/landec/v79y2003i3p369-381.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Discounting and Uncertainty in Climate Change Policy Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Richard B. Howarth

Abstract

Economic studies of climate change commonly discount the future at a rate equal to the long-run return on corporate stocks. Stock market returns, however, are dominated by a risk premium, while climate change mitigation measures would reduce important risks to future welfare. Drawing on the theory of investment behavior under uncertainty, this paper argues that the benefits of climate stabilization policies should be discounted at a rate equal to the annual return on risk-free financial assets, which attains an empirical value between 0 and 2.6%. In addition, expected benefits must be adjusted to account for the value of risk abatement.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard B. Howarth, 2003. "Discounting and Uncertainty in Climate Change Policy Analysis," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 79(3), pages 369-381.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwp:landec:v:79:y:2003:i:3:p:369-381
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://le.uwpress.org/cgi/reprint/79/3/369
    Download Restriction: A subscripton is required to access pdf files. Pay per article is available.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kolstad, Charles D., 1996. "Learning and Stock Effects in Environmental Regulation: The Case of Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-18, July.
    2. Jeffrey A. Kolb & Joel D. Scheraga, 1990. "Discounting the benefits and costs of environmental regulations," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 381-390.
    3. William R. Cline, 1992. "Economics of Global Warming, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 39, October.
    4. Agnar Sandmo, 1974. "Discount Rates for Public Investment Under Uncertainty," International Economic Association Series, in: Jacques H. Drèze (ed.), Allocation under Uncertainty: Equilibrium and Optimality, chapter 11, pages 192-210, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. Paul A. Samuelson, 2011. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection by Dynamic Stochastic Programming," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & Edward O Thorp & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE KELLY CAPITAL GROWTH INVESTMENT CRITERION THEORY and PRACTICE, chapter 31, pages 465-472, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Kenneth J. Arrow & Robert C. Lind, 1974. "Uncertainty and the Evaluation of Public Investment Decisions," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Chennat Gopalakrishnan (ed.), Classic Papers in Natural Resource Economics, chapter 3, pages 54-75, Palgrave Macmillan.
    7. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    8. Manne, Alan & Mendelsohn, Robert & Richels, Richard, 1995. "MERGE : A model for evaluating regional and global effects of GHG reduction policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-34, January.
    9. Brown, Peter G., 1998. "Toward an economics of stewardship: the case of climate," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 11-21, July.
    10. Howarth, Richard B, 1998. " An Overlapping Generations Model of Climate-Economy Interactions," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(3), pages 575-591, September.
    11. Manne, Alan S, 1995. "The rate of time preference : Implications for the greenhouse debate," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4-5), pages 391-394.
    12. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    13. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, December.
    14. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 1996. "The Equity Premium: It's Still a Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 42-71, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Maria Sandsmark & Haakon Vennemo, 2007. "A portfolio approach to climate investments: CAPM and endogenous risk," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 37(4), pages 681-695, August.
    2. Hof, Andries F. & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & den Elzen, Michel G.J., 2010. "A quantitative minimax regret approach to climate change: Does discounting still matter?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 43-51, November.
    3. Dietz, Simon & Gollier, Christian & Kessler, Louise, 2018. "The climate beta," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 258-274.
    4. W. Botzen & Jeroen Bergh, 2014. "Specifications of Social Welfare in Economic Studies of Climate Policy: Overview of Criteria and Related Policy Insights," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 58(1), pages 1-33, May.
    5. Johansson-Stenman, Olof, 2010. "Health Investments Under Risk And Ambiguity," Working Papers in Economics 443, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    6. Camilla Froyn, 2005. "Decision Criteria, Scientific Uncertainty, and the Globalwarming Controversy," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 183-211, April.
    7. Liqun Liu & Andrew J. Rettenmaier & Thomas R. Saving, 2021. "Discounting Environmental Benefits for Future Generations," Public Finance Review, , vol. 49(1), pages 41-70, January.
    8. Liu, Liqun, 2012. "Inferring the rate of pure time preference under uncertainty," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 27-33.
    9. Frank Ackerman & Ian J. Finlayson, 2006. "The economics of inaction on climate change: a sensitivity analysis," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(5), pages 509-526, September.
    10. Laurie Johnson & Chris Hope, 2012. "The social cost of carbon in U.S. regulatory impact analyses: an introduction and critique," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 2(3), pages 205-221, September.
    11. Gutrich, John & Howarth, Richard B., 2007. "Carbon sequestration and the optimal management of New Hampshire timber stands," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(3-4), pages 441-450, May.
    12. Kjell Arne Brekke & Olof Johansson-Stenman, 2008. "The behavioural economics of climate change," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 24(2), pages 280-297, Summer.
    13. Moore, Mark A. & Boardman, Anthony E. & Vining, Aidan R., 2017. "Analyzing risk in PPP provision of utility services: A social welfare perspective," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 210-218.
    14. Kousky, Carolyn & Kopp, Robert E. & Cooke, Roger M., 2011. "Risk premia and the social cost of carbon: A review," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 5, pages 1-24.
    15. Elisabeth Gsottbauer & Jeroen Bergh, 2011. "Environmental Policy Theory Given Bounded Rationality and Other-regarding Preferences," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 49(2), pages 263-304, June.
    16. Morrissey, J. & Meyrick, B. & Sivaraman, D. & Horne, R.E. & Berry, M., 2013. "Cost-benefit assessment of energy efficiency investments: Accounting for future resources, savings and risks in the Australian residential sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 148-159.
    17. Frank Ackerman & Elizabeth Stanton & Ramón Bueno, 2013. "Epstein–Zin Utility in DICE: Is Risk Aversion Irrelevant to Climate Policy?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 56(1), pages 73-84, September.
    18. Venkatachalam, L., 2008. "Behavioral economics for environmental policy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(4), pages 640-645, November.
    19. Andries Hof & Chris Hope & Jason Lowe & Michael Mastrandrea & Malte Meinshausen & Detlef Vuuren, 2012. "The benefits of climate change mitigation in integrated assessment models: the role of the carbon cycle and climate component," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(3), pages 897-917, August.
    20. Lopez, Ramon E. & Pastén, Roberto & Gutiérrez Cubillos, Pablo, 2022. "Climate change in times of economic uncertainty: A perverse tragedy of the commons?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 209-225.
    21. Scrieciu, S. Şerban & Barker, Terry & Ackerman, Frank, 2013. "Pushing the boundaries of climate economics: critical issues to consider in climate policy analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 155-165.
    22. John Gowdy & Roxana Juliá, 2010. "Global Warming Economics in the Long Run: A Conceptual Framework," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 86(1), pages 117-130.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. P. Ding & M. D. Gerst & A. Bernstein & R. B. Howarth & M. E. Borsuk, 2012. "Rare Disasters and Risk Attitudes: International Differences and Implications for Integrated Assessment Modeling," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(11), pages 1846-1855, November.
    2. Gollier, Christian, 2016. "Evaluation of long-dated assets: The role of parameter uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 66-83.
    3. Christian Gollier, 2012. "Evaluation of Long-Dated Investments under Uncertain Growth Trend, Volatility and Catastrophes," CESifo Working Paper Series 4052, CESifo.
    4. W. Botzen & Jeroen Bergh, 2014. "Specifications of Social Welfare in Economic Studies of Climate Policy: Overview of Criteria and Related Policy Insights," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 58(1), pages 1-33, May.
    5. Gollier, Christian, 2021. "The Welfare Cost of Ignoring the Beta," FEEM Working Papers 309916, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    6. Lars Hultkrantz, 2021. "Discounting in economic evaluation of healthcare interventions: what about the risk term?," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 22(3), pages 357-363, April.
    7. Richard Howarth, 2000. "Climate Change and the Representative Agent," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 15(2), pages 135-148, February.
    8. Kevin E. Beaubrun-Diant & Julien Matheron, 2008. "Rentabilités d'actifs et fluctuations économiques : une perspective d'équilibre général dynamique et stochastique," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(2), pages 35-63.
    9. Zimper, Alexander, 2012. "Asset pricing in a Lucas fruit-tree economy with the best and worst in mind," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 610-628.
    10. Lundtofte, Frederik & Wilhelmsson, Anders, 2013. "Risk premia: Exact solutions vs. log-linear approximations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4256-4264.
    11. David N. DeJong & Emilio Espino, 2007. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equity Turnover," Working Paper 294, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, revised Jun 2010.
    12. Prat, Georges, 2013. "Equity risk premium and time horizon: What do the U.S. secular data say?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 76-88.
    13. Gordon, Stephen & St-Amour, Pascal, 1997. "Asset Prices with Contingent Preferences," Cahiers de recherche 9712, Université Laval - Département d'économique, revised 08 Jun 1998.
    14. Lagos, Ricardo, 2010. "Asset prices and liquidity in an exchange economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(8), pages 913-930, November.
    15. Ludwig, Alexander & Zimper, Alexander, 2014. "Biased Bayesian learning with an application to the risk-free rate puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 79-97.
    16. Kihlstrom, Richard, 2009. "Risk aversion and the elasticity of substitution in general dynamic portfolio theory: Consistent planning by forward looking, expected utility maximizing investors," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(9-10), pages 634-663, September.
    17. Robert Barro, 2023. "r Minus g," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 1-17, April.
    18. Meyer, Donald J. & Meyer, Jack, 2005. "Risk preferences in multi-period consumption models, the equity premium puzzle, and habit formation utility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1497-1515, November.
    19. Angelo Melino & Alan X. Yang, 2003. "State Dependent Preferences Can Explain the Equity Premium Puzzle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 806-830, October.
    20. Knut K. Aase, 2016. "Recursive utility using the stochastic maximum principle," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 7(3), pages 859-887, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q21 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uwp:landec:v:79:y:2003:i:3:p:369-381. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://le.uwpress.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.