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Global Warming Economics in the Long Run: A Conceptual Framework

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  • John Gowdy
  • Roxana Juliá

Abstract

Economic models of climate change typically analyze its short-run effects, for example, up to the year 2100 or for a doubling of atmospheric CO2. This is a potentially serious shortcoming since under a business-as-usual scenario, atmospheric CO2 concentrations could more than quadruple. We introduce a framework that endogenously accounts for long-run climate change and examine the implications of alternative mitigation strategies: one in which the rates of annual emissions are reduced, and one that places absolute limits on the total amount of carbon released. We discuss alternative valuation frameworks, drawing on the debate surrounding the Stern Review.

Suggested Citation

  • John Gowdy & Roxana Juliá, 2010. "Global Warming Economics in the Long Run: A Conceptual Framework," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 86(1), pages 117-130.
  • Handle: RePEc:uwp:landec:v:86:y:2010:i:1:p:117-130
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew Watson, 2008. "Certainty and Uncertainty in Climate Change Predictions: What Use are Climate Models?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 39(1), pages 37-44, January.
    2. Auffhammer, Maximilian & Carson, Richard T., 2008. "Forecasting the path of China's CO2 emissions using province-level information," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 229-247, May.
    3. William R. Cline, 1992. "Economics of Global Warming, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 39.
    4. Spash, Clive L., 1994. "Double CO2 and beyond: benefits, costs and compensation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 27-36, May.
    5. W. J.W. Botzen & J. M. Gowdy & J. C.J.M. Van Den Bergh, 2008. "Cumulative CO 2 emissions: shifting international responsibilities for climate debt," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 569-576, November.
    6. d'Autume, Antoine & Schubert, Katheline, 2008. "Hartwick's rule and maximin paths when the exhaustible resource has an amenity value," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 260-274, November.
    7. Tol, Richard S. J., 1994. "The damage costs of climate change: a note on tangibles and intangibles, applied to DICE," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 436-438, May.
    8. van den Bergh, Jeroen C. J. M., 2004. "Optimal climate policy is a utopia: from quantitative to qualitative cost-benefit analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 385-393, April.
    9. Martin L. Weitzman, 2007. "A Review of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 703-724, September.
    10. Richard B. Howarth, 2003. "Discounting and Uncertainty in Climate Change Policy Analysis," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 79(3), pages 369-381.
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    Cited by:

    1. John M. Gowdy, 2013. "Valuing nature for climate change policy: from discounting the future to truly social deliberation," Chapters,in: Handbook on Energy and Climate Change, chapter 25, pages 547-560 Edward Elgar Publishing.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement

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