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Global Warming Economics in the Long Run: A Conceptual Framework

  • John Gowdy
  • Roxana Juliá

Economic models of climate change typically analyze its short-run effects, for example, up to the year 2100 or for a doubling of atmospheric CO2. This is a potentially serious shortcoming since under a business-as-usual scenario, atmospheric CO2 concentrations could more than quadruple. We introduce a framework that endogenously accounts for long-run climate change and examine the implications of alternative mitigation strategies: one in which the rates of annual emissions are reduced, and one that places absolute limits on the total amount of carbon released. We discuss alternative valuation frameworks, drawing on the debate surrounding the Stern Review.

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Article provided by University of Wisconsin Press in its journal Land Economics.

Volume (Year): 86 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 117-130

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Handle: RePEc:uwp:landec:v:86:y:2010:i:1:p:117-130
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  1. Andrew Watson, 2008. "Certainty and Uncertainty in Climate Change Predictions: What Use are Climate Models?," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 39(1), pages 37-44, January.
  2. Richard B. Howarth, 2003. "Discounting and Uncertainty in Climate Change Policy Analysis," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 79(3), pages 369-381.
  3. Antoine d'Autume & Katheline Schubert, 2008. "Hartwick's rule and maximin paths when the exhaustible resource has an amenity value," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne v08031, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  4. W. J.W. Botzen & J. M. Gowdy & J. C.J.M. Van Den Bergh, 2008. "Cumulative CO 2 emissions: shifting international responsibilities for climate debt," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 569-576, November.
  5. Martin L. Weitzman, 2007. "A Review of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 703-724, September.
  6. van den Bergh, Jeroen C. J. M., 2004. "Optimal climate policy is a utopia: from quantitative to qualitative cost-benefit analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 385-393, April.
  7. Antoine D'Autume & Katheline Schubert, 2008. "Hartwick's rule and maximin paths when the exhaustible resource has an amenity value," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00308793, HAL.
  8. Spash, Clive L., 1994. "Double CO2 and beyond: benefits, costs and compensation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 27-36, May.
  9. William R. Cline, 1992. "Economics of Global Warming, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 39.
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