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Responding to threats of climate change mega-catastrophes

Author

Listed:
  • Kousky, Carolyn
  • Rostapshova, Olga
  • Toman, Michael
  • Zeckhauser, Richard

Abstract

There is a low but uncertain probability that climate change could trigger"mega-catastrophes,"severe and at least partly irreversible adverse effects across broad regions. This paper first discusses the state of current knowledge and the defining characteristics of potential climate change mega-catastrophes. While some of these characteristics present difficulties for using standard rational choice methods to evaluate response options, there is still a need to balance the benefits and costs of different possible responses with appropriate attention to the uncertainties. To that end, the authors present a qualitative analysis of three options for mitigating the risk of climate mega-catastrophes - drastic abatement of greenhouse gas emissions, development and implementation of geoengineering, and large-scale ex ante adaptation - against the criteria of efficacy, cost, robustness, and flexibility. They discuss the composition of a sound portfolio of initial investments in reducing the risk of climate change mega-catastrophes.

Suggested Citation

  • Kousky, Carolyn & Rostapshova, Olga & Toman, Michael & Zeckhauser, Richard, 2009. "Responding to threats of climate change mega-catastrophes," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5127, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5127
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    Cited by:

    1. Güssow, Kerstin & Proelss, Alexander & Oschlies, Andreas & Rehdanz, Katrin & Rickels, Wilfried, 2010. "Ocean iron fertilization: Why further research is needed," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 911-918, September.
    2. Benjamin Jones & Michael Keen & Jon Strand, 2013. "Fiscal implications of climate change," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 20(1), pages 29-70, February.
    3. Baptiste Perrissin Fabert & Etienne Espagne & Antonin Pottier & Patrice Dumas, 2012. "The "Doomsday" Effect in Climate Policies: Why is the Present Decade so Crucial to Tackling the Climate Challenge?," Post-Print hal-00800879, HAL.
    4. Rickels, Wilfried & Rehdanz, Katrin & Oschlies, Andreas, 2012. "Economic prospects of ocean iron fertilization in an international carbon market," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 129-150.
    5. Toman, Michael, 2014. "The need for multiple types of information to inform climate change assessment," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 469-485, December.
    6. Ian W. R. Martin & Robert S. Pindyck, 2015. "Averting Catastrophes: The Strange Economics of Scylla and Charybdis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 2947-2985, October.
    7. Augusto Lopez-Claros, 2014. "Fiscal Challenges After the Global Financial Crisis: A Survey of Key Issues," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(02), pages 1-34.
    8. Dovern, Jonas & Harnisch, Sebastian & Klepper, Gernot & Platt, Ulrich & Oschlies, Andreas & Rickels, Wilfried, 2015. "Radiation Management: Gezielte Beeinflussung des globalen Strahlungshaushalts zur Kontrolle des anthropogenen Klimawandels," Kiel Discussion Papers 549/550, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. John E. Bistline, 2015. "Fat-Tailed Uncertainty, Learning, And Climate Policy," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(02), pages 1-21.
    10. Gary D. Libecap & Richard H. Steckel, 2011. "Climate Change: Adaptations in Historical Perspective," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Climate Change: Adaptations Past and Present, pages 1-22, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Olivier STERCK, 2011. "Geoengineering as an alternative to mitigation: specification and dynamic implications," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2011035, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    12. Rickels, Wilfried & Rehdanz, Katrin & Oschlies, Andreas, 2009. "Accounting aspects of ocean iron fertilization," Kiel Working Papers 1572, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    13. Stanley, Conrad, 2020. "Living to Spend Another Day: Exploring Resilience as a New Fourth Goal of Ecological Economics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    14. Grozavu, Adrian & Mihai, Florin-Constantin, 2018. "Environmental Risks between Conceptualization and Action," MPRA Paper 89631, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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