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Multilateral agricultural trade reform: Potential impacts of current negotiations on New Zealand

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  • Allan Rae
  • Anna Strutt

Abstract

Multilateral agricultural negotiations are a crucial part of the WTO's Doha Development Agenda, the outcome of which may significantly impact New Zealand. In this paper we review progress and key proposals put forward to date in the negotiations. We use a newly available and significantly improved version of a global trade database to model the potential economic effects of trade reforms that might be agreed in the Doha Round. Our results indicate that New Zealand is likely to experience relatively large aggregate gains from reform, with significant benefits arising from terms of trade improvements. In the event of a successful outcome from the Doha Round, New Zealand's farm sector and agricultural exports are likely to become further dominated by dairy products. We find that increased access to the markets of industrial countries and a rapid phase-out of agricultural export subsidies are likely to be of particular importance. Efforts to negotiate global reductions in domestic farm support appear to offer the least benefit to New Zealand.

Suggested Citation

  • Allan Rae & Anna Strutt, 2004. "Multilateral agricultural trade reform: Potential impacts of current negotiations on New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 175-205.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:nzecpp:v:38:y:2004:i:2:p:175-205
    DOI: 10.1080/00779950409544402
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
    2. Gibson, Paul R. & Wainio, John & Whitley, Daniel B. & Bohman, Mary, 2001. "Profiles Of Tariffs In Global Agricultural Markets," Agricultural Economics Reports 34055, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685.
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    Cited by:

    1. Charteris, Angus & Winchester, Niven, 2010. "Dairy disaggregation and joint production in an economy-wide model," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 54(4), December.
    2. Angus Charteris & Niven Winchester, 2010. "Dairy disaggregation and joint production in an economy-wide model *-super-‡," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 54(4), pages 491-507, October.
    3. Angus Charteris & Niven Winchester, 2008. "Dairy disaggregation and joint production in an economy-wide model," Working Papers 0810, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2008.

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