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The Real Exchange Rate and the Structural Transformation(s) of China and the U.S

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  • Robert Dekle
  • Murat Ungor

Abstract

From 1989 to 2010, the RMB--dollar real exchange rate depreciated, despite China's rapid income growth relative to the US. We develop a macroeconomic-trade model of the very long-run equilibrium RMB-dollar real exchange rate. We show that this long-run depreciation of the RMB-dollar real exchange rate can be justified by our model, if we note that Chinese agriculture has relatively low productivity and that agriculture is tradeable. Relative to our equilibrium benchmark, the current real RMB-dollar rate is, if anything, over appreciated.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Dekle & Murat Ungor, 2013. "The Real Exchange Rate and the Structural Transformation(s) of China and the U.S," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 303-319, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:27:y:2013:i:2:p:303-319
    DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2013.799900
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Simonovska, Ina & Waugh, Michael E., 2014. "The elasticity of trade: Estimates and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 34-50.
    2. Uy, Timothy & Yi, Kei-Mu & Zhang, Jing, 2013. "Structural change in an open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 667-682.
    3. Simonovska, Ina & Waugh, Michael E., 2014. "The elasticity of trade: Estimates and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 34-50.
    4. Radoslaw Stefanski, 2014. "Structural Transformation and the Oil Price," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(3), pages 484-504, July.
    5. Murat Üngör, 2009. "De-industrialization of the Riches and the Rise of China," DEGIT Conference Papers c014_040, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    6. Teignier, Marc, 2018. "The role of trade in structural transformation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 45-65.
    7. William R. Cline & John Williamson, 2008. "New Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Policy Briefs PB08-7, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2016. "The implications of monetary expansion in China for the US dollar," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 71-84.
    2. Gaofeng Han, 2020. "Structural transformation and its implications for the Chinese economy," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 339-383, August.
    3. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn & Xingwang Qian, 2016. "China–US trade flow behavior: the implications of alternative exchange rate measures and trade classifications," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(1), pages 43-67, February.
    4. Wensheng Kang & Ronald A. Ratti & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2016. "The implications of liquidity expansion in China for the US dollar," CAMA Working Papers 2016-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Yin†Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn & Xin Nong, 2017. "Estimating currency misalignment using the Penn effect: It is not as simple as it looks," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 222-242, December.
    6. Yin‐Wong Cheung & Shi He, 2022. "RMB misalignment: What does a meta‐analysis tell us?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 1038-1086, September.

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