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Real Exchange Rates in a Model of Structural Change: Applications to the Real Yen-Dollar and Chinese RMB-Dollar Exchange Rates

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  • Robert Dekle

    (University of Southern California (Email: dekle@usc.edu))

Abstract

We tackle the important issue of what the appropriate trends in the real Yen-Dollar andRMB-Dollar are over time. Over the long-run, the real yen has been appreciating against the U.S. dollar; while the real RMB-dollar rate has been depreciating (until 1999). In this paper, we build a macroeconomic-trade model of Japan-U.S. trade on theone hand, and China-U.S. trade on the other. Our model is essentially a general equilibrium extension of the Balassa-Samuelson effect. We show that these long-run trends in the real yen-dollar and RMB-dollar rates in the data can be justified by our model.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Dekle, 2013. "Real Exchange Rates in a Model of Structural Change: Applications to the Real Yen-Dollar and Chinese RMB-Dollar Exchange Rates," IMES Discussion Paper Series 13-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  • Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:13-e-02
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert Dekle & Kyoji Fukao, 2009. "The Japan-U.S. Exchange Rate, Productivity, and the Competitiveness of Japanese Industries," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd08-047, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Asea, Patrick K & Mendoza, Enrique G, 1994. "The Balassa-Samuelson Model: A General-Equilibrium Appraisal," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 244-267, October.
    3. Kiminori Matsuyama, 2009. "Structural Change in an Interdependent World: A Global View of Manufacturing Decline," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(2-3), pages 478-486, 04-05.
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    5. Uy, Timothy & Yi, Kei-Mu & Zhang, Jing, 2013. "Structural change in an open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 667-682.
    6. Dekle, Robert & Fukao, Kyoji & 深尾, 京司 & フカオ, キョウジ, 2009. "The Japan-U.S. Exchange Rate, Productivity, and the Competitiveness of Japanese Industries," CEI Working Paper Series 2008-25, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    7. Radoslaw Stefanski, 2014. "Structural Transformation and the Oil Price," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(3), pages 484-504, July.
    8. Murat Üngör, 2009. "De-industrialization of the Riches and the Rise of China," DEGIT Conference Papers c014_040, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    9. Bodenstein, Martin, 2010. "Trade elasticity of substitution and equilibrium dynamics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 1033-1059, May.
    10. Radoslaw Stefanski, 2014. "Structural Transformation and the Oil Price," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(3), pages 484-504, July.
    11. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2007. "The Fog Encircling The Renminbi Debate," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 52(03), pages 403-418.
    12. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688, Elsevier.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    equilibrium real exchange rates; Balassa-Samuelson effect; structural transformation; sectoral change; productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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