IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/ecsysr/v26y2014i1p81-97.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Vulnerability Index For Post-Disaster Key Sector Prioritization

Author

Listed:
  • Krista Danielle S. Yu
  • Raymond R. Tan
  • Kathleen B. Aviso
  • Michael Angelo B. Promentilla
  • Joost R. Santos

Abstract

Input--output-based techniques have proven to be effective in modeling how disasters lead to economic disruptions, while taking into account the structural connectivity of economic systems. In particular, through the inoperability input--output model (IIM), the degree of failure in an economic system can be quantified on a scale from 0 (normal state) to 1 (complete failure). This paper develops a vulnerability index that builds upon the foundations of the Leontief input--output model and the IIM, which is capable of identifying and prioritizing the key sectors in the aftermath of disasters. The key sector prioritization framework proposed in this paper is expected to contribute to the domain of disaster preparedness planning, such as enhancing the efficiency of resource allocation across various sectors. The proposed vulnerability index is formulated in terms of three underlying components: (1) economic impact, (2) propagation length, and (3) sector size. The vulnerability index captures the impact of investments to various sectors in times of disaster in order to yield the maximum benefits to the entire economy. This paper considers a baseline scenario that assumes that the decision-maker has an equal preference for all index components. Using Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis, we investigated the extent to which the key sector rankings could fluctuate with respect to variations in the decision-maker preferences. Key sectors tend to be sensitive to the weight assignments across the three vulnerability index components; nevertheless, some sectors are less sensitive to such weight variations and may persist on their level of priority, independent of the scenario. Using the Philippine input--output data, we found that the private services sector is consistently a high-priority sector, the trade sector is a mid-priority sector while the real estate and ownership of dwellings sector tend to be a low-priority sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Krista Danielle S. Yu & Raymond R. Tan & Kathleen B. Aviso & Michael Angelo B. Promentilla & Joost R. Santos, 2014. "A Vulnerability Index For Post-Disaster Key Sector Prioritization," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 81-97, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:26:y:2014:i:1:p:81-97
    DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2013.872603
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/09535314.2013.872603
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/09535314.2013.872603?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joost R. Santos & Yacov Y. Haimes & Chenyang Lian, 2007. "A Framework for Linking Cybersecurity Metrics to the Modeling of Macroeconomic Interdependencies," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(5), pages 1283-1297, October.
    2. Ilkka Kananen & Pekka Korhonen & Jyrki Wallenius & Hannele Wallenius, 1990. "Multiple Objective Analysis of Input-Output Models for Emergency Management," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 38(2), pages 193-201, April.
    3. Wolff, Edward N, 1985. "Industrial Composition, Interindustry Effects, and the U.S. Productivity Slowdown," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(2), pages 268-277, May.
    4. Jan Oosterhaven & Maaike C. Bouwmeester, 2013. "The Average Propagation Length," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 36(4), pages 481-491, October.
    5. Saaty, Thomas L., 1990. "How to make a decision: The analytic hierarchy process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 9-26, September.
    6. Kenneth G. Crowther & Yacov Y. Haimes & Gideon Taub, 2007. "Systemic Valuation of Strategic Preparedness Through Application of the Inoperability Input‐Output Model with Lessons Learned from Hurricane Katrina," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(5), pages 1345-1364, October.
    7. Eichhorn, W, 1976. "Fisher's Tests Revisited," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(2), pages 247-256, March.
    8. X. Q. Liu & B. W. Ang & H.L. Ong, 1992. "The Application of the Divisia Index to the Decomposition of Changes in Industrial Energy Consumption," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 161-178.
    9. Stéphane Hallegatte, 2008. "An adaptive regional input-output model and its application to the assessment of the economic cost of Katrina," Post-Print hal-00716550, HAL.
    10. Albert E. Steenge & Marija Bockarjova, 2007. "Thinking about Imbalances in Post-catastrophe Economies: An Input-Output based Proposition," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 205-223.
    11. Franco, Chiara & Montresor, Sandro & Vittucci Marzetti, Giuseppe, 2011. "On indirect trade-related R&D spillovers: The "Average Propagation Length" of foreign R&D," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 227-237, September.
    12. José Manuel de Oliveira Mendes, 2009. "Social vulnerability indexes as planning tools: beyond the preparedness paradigm," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 43-58, January.
    13. John E. Wagner & Steven C. Deller, 1998. "Measuring the Effects of Economic Diversity on Growth and Stability," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 74(4), pages 541-556.
    14. Yasuhide Okuyama & Geoffrey J. D. Hewings & Michael Sonis, 2004. "Measuring Economic Impacts of Disasters: Interregional Input-Output Analysis Using Sequential Interindustry Model," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Yasuhide Okuyama & Stephanie E. Chang (ed.), Modeling Spatial and Economic Impacts of Disasters, chapter 5, pages 77-101, Springer.
    15. Joanna Resurreccion & Joost R. Santos, 2012. "Multiobjective Prioritization Methodology and Decision Support System for Evaluating Inventory Enhancement Strategies for Disrupted Interdependent Sectors," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(10), pages 1673-1692, October.
    16. Yoram Wind & Thomas L. Saaty, 1980. "Marketing Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(7), pages 641-658, July.
    17. Joost R. Santos & Yacov Y. Haimes, 2004. "Modeling the Demand Reduction Input‐Output (I‐O) Inoperability Due to Terrorism of Interconnected Infrastructures," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(6), pages 1437-1451, December.
    18. Yacov Y. Haimes, 2009. "On the Definition of Resilience in Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(4), pages 498-501, April.
    19. Coulson N. Edward, 1993. "The Sources of Sectoral Fluctuations in Metropolitan Areas," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 76-94, January.
    20. Kash Barker & Joost R. Santos, 2010. "A Risk‐Based Approach for Identifying Key Economic and Infrastructure Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(6), pages 962-974, June.
    21. Susan L. Cutter & Bryan J. Boruff & W. Lynn Shirley, 2003. "Social Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 84(2), pages 242-261, June.
    22. Barker, Kash & Santos, Joost R., 2010. "Measuring the efficacy of inventory with a dynamic input-output model," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 130-143, July.
    23. Erik Dietzenbacher & Isidoro Romero, 2007. "Production Chains in an Interregional Framework: Identification by Means of Average Propagation Lengths," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 30(4), pages 362-383, October.
    24. Marco Percoco, 2006. "A Note on the Inoperability Input‐Output Model," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(3), pages 589-594, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wakiyama, Takako & Zusman, Eric, 2021. "The impact of electricity market reform and subnational climate policy on carbon dioxide emissions across the United States: A path analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    2. Daryn Joy Go & Michael Angelo Promentilla & Kathleen Aviso & Krista Danielle Yu, 2019. "The Evolution of the Key Sectors in the Philippine Economy Using an AHP-Based Sector Prioritization Index," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-20, August.
    3. Hoa Thi Nguyen & Naoya Kojima & Akihiro Tokai, 2019. "An input–output linear programming model for assessing climate policy considering economic growth," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 34-48, March.
    4. Chopra, Shauhrat S. & Khanna, Vikas, 2015. "Interconnectedness and interdependencies of critical infrastructures in the US economy: Implications for resilience," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 436(C), pages 865-877.
    5. Krista Danielle S. Yu & Kathleen B. Aviso & Michael Angelo B. Promentilla & Joost R. Santos & Raymond R. Tan, 2016. "A weighted fuzzy linear programming model in economic input–output analysis: an application to risk management of energy system disruptions," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 183-195, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. E. E. Koks & M. Bočkarjova & H. de Moel & J. C. J. H. Aerts, 2015. "Integrated Direct and Indirect Flood Risk Modeling: Development and Sensitivity Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(5), pages 882-900, May.
    2. Joost R. Santos & Lucia Castro Herrera & Krista Danielle S. Yu & Sheree Ann T. Pagsuyoin & Raymond R. Tan, 2014. "State of the Art in Risk Analysis of Workforce Criticality Influencing Disaster Preparedness for Interdependent Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(6), pages 1056-1068, June.
    3. Sellevåg, Stig Rune, 2021. "Changes in inoperability for interdependent industry sectors in Norway from 2012 to 2017," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    4. Stéphane Hallegatte, 2014. "Modeling the Role of Inventories and Heterogeneity in the Assessment of the Economic Costs of Natural Disasters," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(1), pages 152-167, January.
    5. Baghersad, Milad & Zobel, Christopher W., 2015. "Economic impact of production bottlenecks caused by disasters impacting interdependent industry sectors," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 71-80.
    6. Jan Oosterhaven, 2017. "On the limited usability of the inoperability IO model," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 452-461, July.
    7. Selerio, Egberto & Maglasang, Renan, 2021. "Minimizing production loss consequent to disasters using a subsidy optimization model: a pandemic case," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 112-124.
    8. Divya Saini & Omvir Singh & Tejpal Sharma & Pankaj Bhardwaj, 2022. "Geoinformatics and analytic hierarchy process based drought vulnerability assessment over a dryland ecosystem of north-western India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(2), pages 1427-1454, November.
    9. Muhammad Abdullah Khalid & Yousaf Ali, 2020. "Economic impact assessment of natural disaster with multi-criteria decision making for interdependent infrastructures," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(8), pages 7287-7311, December.
    10. Joost R. Santos & Larissa May & Amine El Haimar, 2013. "Risk‐Based Input‐Output Analysis of Influenza Epidemic Consequences on Interdependent Workforce Sectors," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(9), pages 1620-1635, September.
    11. Krista Danielle S. Yu & Kathleen B. Aviso & Michael Angelo B. Promentilla & Joost R. Santos & Raymond R. Tan, 2016. "A weighted fuzzy linear programming model in economic input–output analysis: an application to risk management of energy system disruptions," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 183-195, June.
    12. Botelho, Vinícius, 2019. "Estimating the economic impacts of power supply interruptions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 983-994.
    13. Olaf Jonkeren & Georgios Giannopoulos, 2014. "Analysing Critical Infrastructure Failure With A Resilience Inoperability Input--Output Model," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 39-59, March.
    14. Michiyuki Yagi & Shigemi Kagawa & Shunsuke Managi & Hidemichi Fujii & Dabo Guan, 2020. "Supply Constraint from Earthquakes in Japan in Input–Output Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(9), pages 1811-1830, September.
    15. Joost Santos & Christian Yip & Shital Thekdi & Sheree Pagsuyoin, 2020. "Workforce/Population, Economy, Infrastructure, Geography, Hierarchy, and Time (WEIGHT): Reflections on the Plural Dimensions of Disaster Resilience," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(1), pages 43-67, January.
    16. Yaseen, Qazi Muhammad & Akhtar, Rehman & Khalil, Muhammad Kaleem Ullah & Usman Jan, Qazi Muhammad, 2020. "Dynamic inoperability input-output modeling for economic losses estimation in industries during flooding," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    17. Trond G. Husby & Elco E. Koks, 2017. "Household migration in disaster impact analysis: incorporating behavioural responses to risk," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(1), pages 287-305, May.
    18. Jan Oosterhaven & Johannes Többen, 2017. "Wider economic impacts of heavy flooding in Germany: a non-linear programming approach," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 404-428, October.
    19. Wenping Xu & Zongjun Wang & Liu Hong & Ligang He & Xueguang Chen, 2015. "The uncertainty recovery analysis for interdependent infrastructure systems using the dynamic inoperability input–output model," International Journal of Systems Science, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(7), pages 1299-1306, May.
    20. Aaron B. Gertz & James B. Davies & Samantha L. Black, 2019. "A CGE Framework for Modeling the Economics of Flooding and Recovery in a Major Urban Area," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(6), pages 1314-1341, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:26:y:2014:i:1:p:81-97. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/CESR20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.