IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v27y2007i5p1283-1297.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Framework for Linking Cybersecurity Metrics to the Modeling of Macroeconomic Interdependencies

Author

Listed:
  • Joost R. Santos
  • Yacov Y. Haimes
  • Chenyang Lian

Abstract

Hierarchical decision making is a multidimensional process involving management of multiple objectives (with associated metrics and tradeoffs in terms of costs, benefits, and risks), which span various levels of a large‐scale system. The nation is a hierarchical system as it consists multiple classes of decisionmakers and stakeholders ranging from national policymakers to operators of specific critical infrastructure subsystems. Critical infrastructures (e.g., transportation, telecommunications, power, banking, etc.) are highly complex and interconnected. These interconnections take the form of flows of information, shared security, and physical flows of commodities, among others. In recent years, economic and infrastructure sectors have become increasingly dependent on networked information systems for efficient operations and timely delivery of products and services. In order to ensure the stability, sustainability, and operability of our critical economic and infrastructure sectors, it is imperative to understand their inherent physical and economic linkages, in addition to their cyber interdependencies. An interdependency model based on a transformation of the Leontief input‐output (I‐O) model can be used for modeling: (1) the steady‐state economic effects triggered by a consumption shift in a given sector (or set of sectors); and (2) the resulting ripple effects to other sectors. The inoperability metric is calculated for each sector; this is achieved by converting the economic impact (typically in monetary units) into a percentage value relative to the size of the sector. Disruptive events such as terrorist attacks, natural disasters, and large‐scale accidents have historically shown cascading effects on both consumption and production. Hence, a dynamic model extension is necessary to demonstrate the interplay between combined demand and supply effects. The result is a foundational framework for modeling cybersecurity scenarios for the oil and gas sector. A hypothetical case study examines a cyber attack that causes a 5‐week shortfall in the crude oil supply in the Gulf Coast area.

Suggested Citation

  • Joost R. Santos & Yacov Y. Haimes & Chenyang Lian, 2007. "A Framework for Linking Cybersecurity Metrics to the Modeling of Macroeconomic Interdependencies," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(5), pages 1283-1297, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:27:y:2007:i:5:p:1283-1297
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00957.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00957.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00957.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adam Rose & Shu‐Yi Liao, 2005. "Modeling Regional Economic Resilience to Disasters: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Water Service Disruptions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 75-112, February.
    2. Joost R. Santos & Yacov Y. Haimes, 2004. "Modeling the Demand Reduction Input‐Output (I‐O) Inoperability Due to Terrorism of Interconnected Infrastructures," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(6), pages 1437-1451, December.
    3. Sungbin Cho & Peter Gordon & James E. Moore II & Harry W. Richardson & Masanobu Shinozuka & Stephanie Chang, 2001. "Integrating Transportation Network and Regional Economic Models to Estimate the Costs of a Large Urban Earthquake," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 39-65, February.
    4. Yacov Y. Haimes & Stan Kaplan & James H. Lambert, 2002. "Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management Framework Using Hierarchical Holographic Modeling," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(2), pages 383-397, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sellevåg, Stig Rune, 2021. "Changes in inoperability for interdependent industry sectors in Norway from 2012 to 2017," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    2. Edward J. Oughton & Daniel Ralph & Raghav Pant & Eireann Leverett & Jennifer Copic & Scott Thacker & Rabia Dada & Simon Ruffle & Michelle Tuveson & Jim W Hall, 2019. "Stochastic Counterfactual Risk Analysis for the Vulnerability Assessment of Cyber‐Physical Attacks on Electricity Distribution Infrastructure Networks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(9), pages 2012-2031, September.
    3. Yaseen, Qazi Muhammad & Akhtar, Rehman & Khalil, Muhammad Kaleem Ullah & Usman Jan, Qazi Muhammad, 2020. "Dynamic inoperability input-output modeling for economic losses estimation in industries during flooding," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    4. Natalie M. Scala & Allison C. Reilly & Paul L. Goethals & Michel Cukier, 2019. "Risk and the Five Hard Problems of Cybersecurity," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(10), pages 2119-2126, October.
    5. Krista Danielle S. Yu & Raymond R. Tan & Kathleen B. Aviso & Michael Angelo B. Promentilla & Joost R. Santos, 2014. "A Vulnerability Index For Post-Disaster Key Sector Prioritization," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 81-97, March.
    6. Knowles, William & Prince, Daniel & Hutchison, David & Disso, Jules Ferdinand Pagna & Jones, Kevin, 2015. "A survey of cyber security management in industrial control systems," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 52-80.
    7. Joanna Resurreccion & Joost R. Santos, 2012. "Multiobjective Prioritization Methodology and Decision Support System for Evaluating Inventory Enhancement Strategies for Disrupted Interdependent Sectors," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(10), pages 1673-1692, October.
    8. Thiago Poleto & Thyago Celso Cavalcante Nepomuceno & Victor Diogho Heuer de Carvalho & Ligiane Cristina Braga de Oliveira Friaes & Rodrigo Cleiton Paiva de Oliveira & Ciro José Jardim Figueiredo, 2023. "Information Security Applications in Smart Cities: A Bibliometric Analysis of Emerging Research," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-36, December.
    9. Joost R. Santos & Larissa May & Amine El Haimar, 2013. "Risk‐Based Input‐Output Analysis of Influenza Epidemic Consequences on Interdependent Workforce Sectors," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(9), pages 1620-1635, September.
    10. Avraam, Charalampos & Ceferino, Luis & Dvorkin, Yury, 2023. "Operational and economy-wide impacts of compound cyber-attacks and extreme weather events on electric power networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 349(C).
    11. Bhandari, Pratik & Creighton, Douglas & Gong, Jinzhe & Boyle, Carol & Law, Kris M.Y., 2023. "Evolution of cyber-physical-human water systems: Challenges and gaps," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    12. Andjelka Kelic & Zachary A. Collier & Christopher Brown & Walter E. Beyeler & Alexander V. Outkin & Vanessa N. Vargas & Mark A. Ehlen & Christopher Judson & Ali Zaidi & Billy Leung & Igor Linkov, 2013. "Decision framework for evaluating the macroeconomic risks and policy impacts of cyber attacks," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 544-560, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aaron B. Gertz & James B. Davies & Samantha L. Black, 2019. "A CGE Framework for Modeling the Economics of Flooding and Recovery in a Major Urban Area," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(6), pages 1314-1341, June.
    2. Yasuyuki Todo & Kentaro Nakajima & Petr Matous, 2015. "How Do Supply Chain Networks Affect The Resilience Of Firms To Natural Disasters? Evidence From The Great East Japan Earthquake," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 209-229, March.
    3. Stéphane Hallegatte, 2014. "Modeling the Role of Inventories and Heterogeneity in the Assessment of the Economic Costs of Natural Disasters," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(1), pages 152-167, January.
    4. Iman Rahimi Aloughareh & Mohsen Ghafory Ashtiany & Kiarash Nasserasadi, 2016. "An Integrated Methodology For Regional Macroeconomic Loss Estimation Of Earthquake: A Case Study Of Tehran," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(04), pages 1-24, September.
    5. Rui Huang & Arunima Malik & Manfred Lenzen & Yutong Jin & Yafei Wang & Futu Faturay & Zhiyi Zhu, 2022. "Supply-chain impacts of Sichuan earthquake: a case study using disaster input–output analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(3), pages 2227-2248, February.
    6. Henriet, Fanny & Hallegatte, Stéphane & Tabourier, Lionel, 2012. "Firm-network characteristics and economic robustness to natural disasters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 150-167.
    7. Hallegatte, Stephane, 2012. "Modeling the roles of heterogeneity, substitution, and inventories in the assessment of natural disaster economic costs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6047, The World Bank.
    8. Joost R. Santos, 2006. "Inoperability input‐output modeling of disruptions to interdependent economic systems," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 9(1), pages 20-34, March.
    9. Ariel Belasen & Chifeng Dai, 2014. "When oceans attack: assessing the impact of hurricanes on localized taxable sales," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 52(2), pages 325-342, March.
    10. Selerio, Egberto & Maglasang, Renan, 2021. "Minimizing production loss consequent to disasters using a subsidy optimization model: a pandemic case," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 112-124.
    11. Jian Jin & Haoran Zhou, 2023. "A Demand-Side Inoperability Input–Output Model for Strategic Risk Management: Insight from the COVID-19 Outbreak in Shanghai, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-22, February.
    12. Stéphane Hallegatte & Fanny Henriet & Jan Corfee-Morlot, 2011. "The economics of climate change impacts and policy benefits at city scale: a conceptual framework," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 51-87, January.
    13. Henriet, Fanny & Hallegatte, Stephane, 2008. "Assessing the Consequences of Natural Disasters on Production Networks: A Disaggregated Approach," Coalition Theory Network Working Papers 46657, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    14. Krista Danielle S. Yu & Kathleen B. Aviso & Michael Angelo B. Promentilla & Joost R. Santos & Raymond R. Tan, 2016. "A weighted fuzzy linear programming model in economic input–output analysis: an application to risk management of energy system disruptions," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 183-195, June.
    15. Yacov Y. Haimes & Kenneth Crowther & Barry M. Horowitz, 2008. "Homeland security preparedness: Balancing protection with resilience in emergent systems," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(4), pages 287-308, December.
    16. Botelho, Vinícius, 2019. "Estimating the economic impacts of power supply interruptions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 983-994.
    17. Olaf Jonkeren & Georgios Giannopoulos, 2014. "Analysing Critical Infrastructure Failure With A Resilience Inoperability Input--Output Model," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 39-59, March.
    18. Toshio Fujimi & Hirokazu Tatano, 2012. "Estimation of indirect economic loss caused by house destruction in a natural disaster," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 61(3), pages 1367-1388, April.
    19. Stéphane Hallegatte, 2008. "An Adaptive Regional Input‐Output Model and its Application to the Assessment of the Economic Cost of Katrina," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(3), pages 779-799, June.
    20. Joost Santos & Christian Yip & Shital Thekdi & Sheree Pagsuyoin, 2020. "Workforce/Population, Economy, Infrastructure, Geography, Hierarchy, and Time (WEIGHT): Reflections on the Plural Dimensions of Disaster Resilience," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(1), pages 43-67, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:27:y:2007:i:5:p:1283-1297. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.