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Risk and the Five Hard Problems of Cybersecurity

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  • Natalie M. Scala
  • Allison C. Reilly
  • Paul L. Goethals
  • Michel Cukier

Abstract

This perspectives article addresses risk in cyber defense and identifies opportunities to incorporate risk analysis principles into the cybersecurity field. The Science of Security (SoS) initiative at the National Security Agency seeks to further and promote interdisciplinary research in cybersecurity. SoS organizes its research into the Five Hard Problems (5HP): (1) scalability and composability; (2) policy‐governed secure collaboration; (3) security‐metrics–driven evaluation, design, development, and deployment; (4) resilient architectures; and (5) understanding and accounting for human behavior. However, a vast majority of the research sponsored by SoS does not consider risk and when it does so, only implicitly. Therefore, we identify opportunities for risk analysis in each hard problem and propose approaches to address these objectives. Such collaborations between risk and cybersecurity researchers will enable growth and insight in both fields, as risk analysts may apply existing methodology in a new realm, while the cybersecurity community benefits from accepted practices for describing, quantifying, working with, and mitigating risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Natalie M. Scala & Allison C. Reilly & Paul L. Goethals & Michel Cukier, 2019. "Risk and the Five Hard Problems of Cybersecurity," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(10), pages 2119-2126, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:39:y:2019:i:10:p:2119-2126
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.13309
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Martin Eling & Michael McShane & Trung Nguyen, 2021. "Cyber risk management: History and future research directions," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 24(1), pages 93-125, March.
    3. Todor Tagarev, 2020. "Towards the Design of a Collaborative Cybersecurity Networked Organisation: Identification and Prioritisation of Governance Needs and Objectives," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-19, March.
    4. Alessandro Mazzoccoli & Maurizio Naldi, 2022. "An Overview of Security Breach Probability Models," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-29, November.
    5. Reilly, Allison C. & Baroud, Hiba & Flage, Roger & Gerst, Michael D., 2021. "Sources of uncertainty in interdependent infrastructure and their implications," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    6. Alessandro Mazzoccoli, 2023. "Optimal Cyber Security Investment in a Mixed Risk Management Framework: Examining the Role of Cyber Insurance and Expenditure Analysis," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-14, August.
    7. Schmidt, Adam & Albert, Laura A. & Zheng, Kaiyue, 2021. "Risk management for cyber-infrastructure protection: A bi-objective integer programming approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).

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