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Integrating Transportation Network and Regional Economic Models to Estimate the Costs of a Large Urban Earthquake

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  • Sungbin Cho
  • Peter Gordon
  • James E. Moore II
  • Harry W. Richardson
  • Masanobu Shinozuka
  • Stephanie Chang

Abstract

In this paper we summarize an integrated, operational model of losses due to earthquake impacts on transportation and industrial capacity, and how these losses affect the metropolitan economy. The procedure advances the information provided by transportation and activity system analysis techniques in ways that help capture the most important ecomonic implications of earthquakes. Network costs and origin-destination requirements are modeled endogenously and consistently. Indirect and induced losses associated with direct impacts on transportation and industrial capacity are distributed across zones and ecomonic sectors. Preliminary results are summarized for a magnitude 7.1 earthquake on the Elysian Park blind thrust fault in Los Angeles. Copyright 2001 BlackwellPublishers

Suggested Citation

  • Sungbin Cho & Peter Gordon & James E. Moore II & Harry W. Richardson & Masanobu Shinozuka & Stephanie Chang, 2001. "Integrating Transportation Network and Regional Economic Models to Estimate the Costs of a Large Urban Earthquake," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 39-65.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:41:y:2001:i:1:p:39-65
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    Cited by:

    1. Henriet, Fanny & Hallegatte, Stéphane & Tabourier, Lionel, 2012. "Firm-network characteristics and economic robustness to natural disasters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 150-167.
    2. Ichihara, Silvio Massaru & Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins & Imori, Denise, 2009. "Combining geoprocessing and interregional input-output systems: An application to the State of São Paulo in Brazil," MPRA Paper 30696, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Yuepeng Cui & Daan Liang & Bradley T. Ewing & Ali Nejat, 2016. "Development, specification and validation of Hurricane Resiliency Index," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(3), pages 2149-2165, July.
    4. Yasuyuki Todo & Kentaro Nakajima & Petr Matous, 2015. "How Do Supply Chain Networks Affect The Resilience Of Firms To Natural Disasters? Evidence From The Great East Japan Earthquake," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 209-229, March.
    5. Özdamar, Linet & Tüzün Aksu, Dilek & Ergüneş, Biket, 2014. "Coordinating debris cleanup operations in post disaster road networks," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 249-262.
    6. Stéphane Hallegatte & Fanny Henriet & Jan Corfee-Morlot, 2011. "The economics of climate change impacts and policy benefits at city scale: a conceptual framework," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 51-87, January.
    7. B. Coluzzi & M. Ghil & S. Hallegatte & G. Weisbuch, 2010. "Boolean delay equations on networks: An application to economic damage propagation," Papers 1003.0793, arXiv.org.
    8. Tuzun Aksu, Dilek & Ozdamar, Linet, 2014. "A mathematical model for post-disaster road restoration: Enabling accessibility and evacuation," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 56-67.
    9. Serge REY & Jacques JAUSSAUD & Julien MARTINE, 2012. "Japon : pistes pour l’analyse des conséquences économiques et managériales du Grand Tremblement de Terre du 11 mars 2011," Working Papers 2011-2012_9, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Jun 2012.
    10. Ichihara, Silvio Massaru & Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins & Imori, Denise, 2008. "Geoprocessing and estimation of interregional input-output systems an application to the state of Sao Paulo in Brazil," MPRA Paper 54036, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Ham, Heejoo & Kim, Tschangho John & Boyce, David, 2005. "Assessment of economic impacts from unexpected events with an interregional commodity flow and multimodal transportation network model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 849-860, December.
    12. Jenelius, Erik & Mattsson, Lars-Göran, 2012. "Road network vulnerability analysis of area-covering disruptions: A grid-based approach with case study," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(5), pages 746-760.
    13. Stéphane Hallegatte, 2012. "Modeling the roles of heterogeneity, substitution, and inventories in the assessment of natural disaster economic costs," Post-Print hal-00802050, HAL.
    14. Genevieve Giuliano & Peter Gordon & Qisheng Pan & JiYoung Park & LanLan Wang, 2010. "Estimating Freight Flows for Metropolitan Area Highway Networks Using Secondary Data Sources," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 73-91, March.
    15. Ariel Belasen & Chifeng Dai, 2014. "When oceans attack: assessing the impact of hurricanes on localized taxable sales," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 52(2), pages 325-342, March.
    16. H. Lin & Y. Kuo & D. Shaw & M. Chang & T. Kao, 2012. "Regional economic impact analysis of earthquakes in northern Taiwan and its implications for disaster reduction policies," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 61(2), pages 603-620, March.
    17. Toshio Fujimi & Hirokazu Tatano, 2012. "Estimation of indirect economic loss caused by house destruction in a natural disaster," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 61(3), pages 1367-1388, April.
    18. Iman Rahimi Aloughareh & Mohsen Ghafory Ashtiany & Kiarash Nasserasadi, 2016. "An Integrated Methodology For Regional Macroeconomic Loss Estimation Of Earthquake: A Case Study Of Tehran," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(04), pages 1-24, September.

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