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Global financial crisis and dependence risk analysis of sector portfolios: a vine copula approach

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  • Jose Arreola Hernandez
  • Shawkat Hammoudeh
  • Duc Khuong Nguyen
  • Mazin A. M. Al Janabi
  • Juan Carlos Reboredo

Abstract

We use regular vine (r-vine), canonical vine (c-vine) and drawable vine (d-vine) copulas to examine the dependence risk characteristics of three 20-stock portfolios from the retail, manufacturing and gold-mining equity sectors of the Australian market in periods before, during and after the 2008–2009 global financial crisis (GFC). Our results indicate that the retail portfolio is less risky than the manufacturing counterpart in the crisis period, while the gold-mining portfolio is less risky than both the retail and manufacturing sector portfolios. Both the retail and gold stocks display a higher propensity to yield positively skewed returns in the crisis periods, contrary to the manufacturing stocks. The r-vine is found to best capture the multivariate dependence structure of the stocks in the retail and gold-mining portfolios, while the d-vine does it for the manufacturing stock portfolio. These findings could be used to develop dependence risk- and investment risk-adjusted strategies for investment, rebalancing and hedging which more adequately account for the downside risk in various market conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Jose Arreola Hernandez & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Mazin A. M. Al Janabi & Juan Carlos Reboredo, 2017. "Global financial crisis and dependence risk analysis of sector portfolios: a vine copula approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(25), pages 2409-2427, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:25:p:2409-2427
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2016.1240346
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    1. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Uddin, Gazi Salah & Hernandez, Jose Areola & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Hedström, Axel, 2018. "Multivariate dependence and spillover effects across energy commodities and diversification potentials of carbon assets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 35-46.
    2. repec:eee:intfin:v:56:y:2018:i:c:p:104-127 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:kap:apfinm:v:25:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s10690-018-9249-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Arreola-Hernandez, Jose & Bekiros, Stelios & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Kayani, Ghulam Mujtaba, 2018. "A systemic risk analysis of Islamic equity markets using vine copula and delta CoVaR modeling," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 104-127.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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