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Statistical model for earthquake economic loss estimation using GDP and DPI: a case study from Iran

Author

Listed:
  • Mahdi Moudi

    (Sichuan University)

  • Shiyu Yan

    (Sichuan University)

  • Bahador Bahramimianrood

    (Sichuan University)

  • Xiaoping Li

    (Sichuan University)

  • Liming Yao

    (Sichuan University)

Abstract

As earthquakes can result in multi-dimensional negative consequences such as human loss and building damage, the ability to make accurate economic loss estimations immediately after the occurrence is crucial. Unfortunately, in many earthquake-stricken countries such as Iran, governments are often unable to quickly or accurately assess post-earthquake losses. The aim of this paper, therefore, is to extend the model developed by Chan et al. (Nat Hazards 17:269–283, 1998) to two independent variables to develop an earthquake economic loss estimation method based on the economic and socio-economic indices gross domestic product (GDP) and disposable personal income (DPI) and a seismic hazard probability function. A global cell map is also considered to assess the GDP and DPI based on the population in each cell affected by the earthquake. In the final stage, using the Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale, 18 earthquake damaged areas in Iran are taken as case study to estimate the economic losses using the new model presented in this paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahdi Moudi & Shiyu Yan & Bahador Bahramimianrood & Xiaoping Li & Liming Yao, 2019. "Statistical model for earthquake economic loss estimation using GDP and DPI: a case study from Iran," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 583-598, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:53:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s11135-018-0776-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11135-018-0776-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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