IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/inrvec/v72y2025i2d10.1007_s12232-025-00498-7.html

Is tourism a primary driver of inflation in house prices? The case of European countries

Author

Listed:
  • José Alberto Fuinhas

    (University of Coimbra, Faculty of Economics, and Centre for Business and Economics Research (CeBER))

  • Daniela Castilho

    (University of Coimbra, Faculty of Economics, and Centre for Business and Economics Research (CeBER))

  • Volkan Kaymaz

    (Istanbul Yeni Yuzyil University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences)

  • Matheus Koengkan

    (University of Coimbra Institute for Legal Research (UCILeR), University of Coimbra)

Abstract

In this empirical investigation, the influence of tourism on housing prices was studied for 13 European Union countries from 2005 to 2019 using cs-ARDL and Quantile cs-ARDL econometric approaches. The findings reveal a positive effect running from the tourism sector (represented by tourism revenues and the number of arrivals) to housing price indices, indicating that this industry significantly impacts real estate markets. Moreover, the results show that economic growth, bank credit, and population growth drive house prices. These outcomes have significant implications for policymakers, highlighting the dual nature of tourism’s impact and the need for a careful balance between promoting tourism as an economic strategy and ensuring housing affordability for residents.

Suggested Citation

  • José Alberto Fuinhas & Daniela Castilho & Volkan Kaymaz & Matheus Koengkan, 2025. "Is tourism a primary driver of inflation in house prices? The case of European countries," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 72(2), pages 1-28, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:inrvec:v:72:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s12232-025-00498-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s12232-025-00498-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12232-025-00498-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s12232-025-00498-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Balázs Égert & Dubravko Mihaljek, 2007. "Determinants of House Prices in Central and Eastern Europe," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 49(3), pages 367-388, September.
    2. Álvarez-Román, Laura & García-Posada, Miguel, 2021. "Are house prices overvalued in Spain? A regional approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    3. José Fuinhas & António Marques & Alcino Couto, 2015. "Oil rents and economic growth in oil producing countries: evidence from a macro panel," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 257-279, November.
    4. Ales Melecky & Daniel Paksi, 2024. "Drivers of European housing prices in the new millennium: demand, financial, and supply determinants," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 731-753, August.
    5. José Alberto Fuinhas & Matheus Belucio & Daniela Castilho & Joana Mateus & Rafaela Caetano, 2020. "Tourism and Economic Growth Nexus in Latin America and Caribbean Countries: Evidence from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Panel," Academica Turistica - Tourism and Innovation Journal, University of Primorska Press, vol. 13(1), pages 21-34.
    6. Sofoklis Vogiazas & Constantinos Alexiou, 2017. "Determinants of Housing Prices and Bubble Detection: Evidence from Seven Advanced Economies," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 45(1), pages 119-131, March.
    7. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & John Inekwe & Kris Ivanovski, 2022. "Has tourism driven house prices in Germany? Time-varying evidence since 1870," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(7), pages 1705-1723, November.
    8. Jos Alberto Fuinhas & Ant nio Cardoso Marques & Alcino Pinto Couto, 2015. "Oil-Growth Nexus in Oil Producing Countries: Macro Panel Evidence," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(1), pages 148-163.
    9. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    10. Giovanni Favara & Jean Imbs, 2015. "Credit Supply and the Price of Housing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 958-992, March.
    11. Jerry Hausman, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    12. repec:hal:pseose:hal-01301589 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Guangyang Chen & Kai Dong & Shaonan Wang & Xiuli Du & Ronghua Zhou & Zhongwei Yang, 2022. "The Dynamic Relationship among Bank Credit, House Prices and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-18, August.
    14. Richard K. Green & Susan M. Wachter, 2005. "The American Mortgage in Historical and International Context," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 93-114, Fall.
    15. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    16. N. Kundan Kishor & Hardik A. Marfatia, 2018. "Forecasting house prices in OECD economies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 170-190, March.
    17. José Alberto Fuinhas & Matheus Belucio & Daniela Castilho & Joana Mateus & Rafaela Caetano, 2020. "Tourism and Economic Growth Nexus in Latin America and Caribbean Countries: Evidence from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Panel," Academica Turistica - Tourism and Innovation Journal, University of Primorska Press, vol. 13(1), pages 21-34.
    18. Bianca Biagi & Maria G. Brandano & Dionysia Lambiri, 2015. "Does Tourism Affect House Prices? Evidence from Italy," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 501-528, September.
    19. Alam, Md. Samsul & Paramati, Sudharshan Reddy, 2016. "The impact of tourism on income inequality in developing economies: Does Kuznets curve hypothesis exist?," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 111-126.
    20. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    21. Juan Gabriel Brida & Isabel Cortes-Jimenez & Manuela Pulina, 2016. "Has the tourism-led growth hypothesis been validated? A literature review," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 394-430, April.
    22. Nuno Silva & Aida Isabel Tavares & Matheus Koengkan & José Alberto Fuinhas, 2024. "Analyzing the impact of fiscal conditions on private health expenditures in OECD countries: a quantile ARDL investigation," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 439-463, September.
    23. Kari Hämäläinen & Petri Böckerman, 2004. "Regional Labor Market Dynamics, Housing, and Migration," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 543-568, August.
    24. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    25. Sakuragawa, Masaya & Tobe, Satoshi & Zhou, Mengyuan, 2021. "Chinese housing market and bank credit," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    26. Andrew A. Alola & Simplice A. Asongu & Uju V. Alola, 2019. "House prices and tourism development in Cyprus: A contemporary perspective," Working Papers 19/067, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    27. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Hamilton, Jacqueline M., 2007. "Coastal landscape and the hedonic price of accommodation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(3-4), pages 594-602, May.
    29. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    30. Moaaz Kabil & Mohamed Abouelseoud & Faisal Alsubaie & Heba Mostafa Hassan & Imre Varga & Katalin Csobán & Lóránt Dénes Dávid, 2022. "Evolutionary Relationship between Tourism and Real Estate: Evidence and Research Trends," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-19, August.
    31. Matheus Koengkan & José Alberto Fuinhas, 2022. "Does the Obesity Problem Increase Environmental Degradation? Macroeconomic and Social Evidence from the European Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-17, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Renato Santiago & José Alberto Fuinhas & António Cardoso Marques, 2020. "The impact of globalization and economic freedom on economic growth: the case of the Latin America and Caribbean countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 61-85, February.
    2. Marques, António Cardoso & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Pereira, Diogo Santos, 2019. "The dynamics of the short and long-run effects of public policies supporting renewable energy: A comparative study of installed capacity and electricity generation," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 188-206.
    3. Santiago, Renato & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Marques, António Cardoso, 2020. "An analysis of the energy intensity of Latin American and Caribbean countries: Empirical evidence on the role of public and private capital stock," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    4. Castilho, Daniela & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Marques, António Cardoso, 2021. "The impacts of the tourism sector on the eco-efficiency of the Latin American and Caribbean countries," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    5. Jose Alberto Fuinhas & Antonio Cardoso Marques & Catia Lopes, 2019. "The Impact of Financial Development and Globalisation on Economic Growth: Evidence from a Macro Panel of Ten Countries," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(3), pages 366-388, March.
    6. Hikmet Akyol & Selim Basar, 2024. "Empirical Analysis of Turkish Banking Sector Institutional and Macroeconomic Determinants of Risks," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 73(74-1), pages 59-98, June.
    7. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Michał Kowalczuk & Andrzej Rzońca, 2016. "Heterogeneous determinants of local unemployment in Poland," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 487-519, October.
    8. Renato Santiago & Matheus Koengkan & José Alberto Fuinhas & António Cardoso Marques, 2020. "The relationship between public capital stock, private capital stock and economic growth in the Latin American and Caribbean countries," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 67(3), pages 293-317, September.
    9. Maximo Camacho & Maria del Carmen Ramos-Herrera, 2025. "Does tourism reduce income inequality?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 31(3), pages 381-401, May.
    10. Rim El Khoury & Nohade Nasrallah & Hazem Marashdeh & Osama F. Atayah & Kaliyan Mathiyazhagan, 2024. "The nexus of Green finance and renewable energy on CO2 emissions," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(8), pages 8911-8928, December.
    11. Changyao Song & Yijun Liu & Xinjian Li & Jiayi Zhang & Qier Lyu, 2024. "Tourism development and urban housing prices: Evidence from China," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(5), pages 1115-1139, August.
    12. Hdom, Hélde A.D., 2019. "Examining carbon dioxide emissions, fossil & renewable electricity generation and economic growth: Evidence from a panel of South American countries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 186-197.
    13. Aneet Yadav & Mantu Kumar Mahalik & Gupteswar Patel & Shreya Pal, 2024. "Do domestic and overseas technological innovations equally matter in renewable energy development? Empirical evidence from emerging economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 1-27, December.
    14. Neves, Sónia Almeida & Marques, António Cardoso & Fuinhas, José Alberto, 2017. "Is energy consumption in the transport sector hampering both economic growth and the reduction of CO2 emissions? A disaggregated energy consumption analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 64-70.
    15. Marques, António Cardoso & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Pereira, Diogo André, 2018. "Have fossil fuels been substituted by renewables? An empirical assessment for 10 European countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 257-265.
    16. Mamba, Essotanam & Ali, Essossinam, 2022. "Do agricultural exports enhance agricultural (economic) growth? Lessons from ECOWAS countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 257-267.
    17. Aladejare, Samson Adeniyi, 2022. "Natural resource rents, globalisation and environmental degradation: New insight from 5 richest African economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    18. Betencourt, Matilde & Fuinhas, José Alberto, 2025. "The impact of dynamic capital formation in energy transition: Empirical evidence from the European Union," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 335(C).
    19. Shujaat Naeem Azmi & Tasneem Khan & Wajahat Azmi & Naghma Azhar, 2023. "A panel cointegration analysis of linkages between international trade and tourism: case of India and South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 5157-5176, December.
    20. Neves, Sónia Almeida & Marques, António Cardoso & de Sá Lopes, Leonardo Batista, 2024. "Is environmental regulation keeping e-waste under control? Evidence from e-waste exports in the European Union," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:inrvec:v:72:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s12232-025-00498-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.