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Has tourism driven house prices in Germany? Time-varying evidence since 1870

Author

Listed:
  • Sefa Awaworyi Churchill

    (RMIT University, Australia)

  • John Inekwe

    (Macquarie University, Australia)

  • Kris Ivanovski

    (Monash University, Australia)

Abstract

Using a historical data set and recent advances in non-parametric time series modelling, we investigate the nexus between tourism flows and house prices in Germany over nearly 150 years. We use time-varying non-parametric techniques given that historical data tend to exhibit abrupt changes and other forms of non-linearities. Our findings show evidence of a time-varying effect of tourism flows on house prices, although with mixed effects. The pre-World War II time-varying estimates of tourism show both positive and negative effects on house prices. While changes in tourism flows contribute to increasing housing prices over the post-1950 period, this is short-lived, and the effect declines until the mid-1990s. However, we find a positive and significant relationship after 2000, where the impact of tourism on house prices becomes more pronounced in recent years.

Suggested Citation

  • Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & John Inekwe & Kris Ivanovski, 2022. "Has tourism driven house prices in Germany? Time-varying evidence since 1870," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(7), pages 1705-1723, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:28:y:2022:i:7:p:1705-1723
    DOI: 10.1177/13548166211008832
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