IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/futbus/v6y2020i1d10.1186_s43093-020-00039-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Hypothesizing directional causality between the governance indicators and economic growth: the case of Afghanistan

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammad Naim Azimi

    (Kabul University)

  • Mohammad Musa Shafiq

    (Kabul University)

Abstract

This paper examines the causal relationship between governance indicators and economic growth in Afghanistan. We use a set of quarterly time series data from 2003Q1 to 2018Q4 to test our hypothesis. Following Toda and Yamamoto’s (J Econom 66(1–2):225–250, 1995. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01616-8 ) vector autoregressive model and the modified Wald test, our empirical results show a unidirectional causality between the government effectiveness, rule of law, and the economic growth. Our findings exhibit significant causal relationships running from economic growth to the eradication of corruption, the establishment of the rule of law, quality of regulatory measures, government effectiveness, and political stability. More interestingly, we support the significant multidimensional causality hypothesis among the governance indicators. Overall, our findings not only reveal causality between economic growth and governance indicators, but they also show interdependencies among the governance indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad Naim Azimi & Mohammad Musa Shafiq, 2020. "Hypothesizing directional causality between the governance indicators and economic growth: the case of Afghanistan," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:futbus:v:6:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1186_s43093-020-00039-4
    DOI: 10.1186/s43093-020-00039-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1186/s43093-020-00039-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1186/s43093-020-00039-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher J. Boudreaux & Boris N. Nikolaev & Randall G. Holcombe, 2018. "Corruption and destructive entrepreneurship," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 181-202, June.
    2. Jiandang Liu & Jie Tang & Bo Zhou & Zhijun Liang, 2018. "The Effect of Governance Quality on Economic Growth: Based on China’s Provincial Panel Data," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-23, October.
    3. Hadj Fraj, Salma & Hamdaoui, Mekki & Maktouf, Samir, 2018. "Governance and economic growth: The role of the exchange rate regime," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 326-364.
    4. Allen, Franklin & Qian, Jun & Qian, Meijun, 2005. "Law, finance, and economic growth in China," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 57-116, July.
    5. Daniel Kaufmann & Aart Kraay, 2002. "Growth without Governance," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2002), pages 169-230, August.
    6. Kwabena Gyimah-Brempong, 2002. "Corruption, economic growth, and income inequality in Africa," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 183-209, November.
    7. Strøm,Steinar (ed.), 1999. "Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521633659, January.
    8. Carlos Enrique Carrasco Gutiérrez & Reinaldo Castro Souza & Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén, 2007. "Selection of Optimal Lag Length in Cointegrated VAR Models with Weak Form of Common Cyclical Features," Working Papers Series 139, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    9. Daron Acemoglu & James A. Robinson, 2008. "Persistence of Power, Elites, and Institutions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 267-293, March.
    10. Olson, Mancur, Jr & Sarna, Naveen & Swamy, Anand V, 2000. "Governance and Growth: A Simple Hypothesis Explaining Cross-Country Differences in Productivity Growth," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 102(3-4), pages 341-364, March.
    11. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    12. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    13. Robert J. Barro, 1999. "Determinants of Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(S6), pages 158-183, December.
    14. Ploberger, Werner & Kramer, Walter, 1992. "The CUSUM Test with OLS Residuals," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 271-285, March.
    15. Rachid Mira & Ahmed Hammadache, 2017. "Relationship between good governance and economic growth - A contribution to the institutional debate about state failure in developing countries," CEPN Working Papers 2017-12, Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord.
    16. Gutierrez, Carlos Enrique Carrasco & Souza, Reinaldo Castro & Guillén, Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho, 2009. "Selection of Optimal Lag Length in Cointegrated VAR Models with Weak Form of Common Cyclical Features," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 29(1), May.
    17. Wilson, Ross, 2016. "Does Governance Cause Growth? Evidence from China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 138-151.
    18. Steven Kelman, 2000. "Corruption and government: Causes, consequences, and reform," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 488-491.
    19. Przeworski,Adam & Alvarez,Michael E. & Cheibub,Jose Antonio & Limongi,Fernando, 2000. "Democracy and Development," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521793797, January.
    20. Cieślik, Andrzej & Goczek, Łukasz, 2018. "Control of corruption, international investment, and economic growth – Evidence from panel data," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 323-335.
    21. M A Thomas, 2010. "What Do the Worldwide Governance Indicators Measure?," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 22(1), pages 31-54, February.
    22. Strøm,Steinar (ed.), 1999. "Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521633239, January.
    23. Przeworski,Adam & Alvarez,Michael E. & Cheibub,Jose Antonio & Limongi,Fernando, 2000. "Democracy and Development," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521790321, January.
    24. Abdelaziz Hakimi & Helmi Hamdi, 2017. "Does corruption limit FDI and economic growth? Evidence from MENA countries," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(3), pages 550-571, July.
    25. Abdelbary, Islam & Benhin, James, 2019. "Governance, capital and economic growth in the Arab Region," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 184-191.
    26. Al Mamun, Md & Sohag, Kazi & Hassan, M. Kabir, 2017. "Governance, resources and growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 238-261.
    27. Huang, Chiung-Ju & Ho, Yuan-Hong, 2017. "Governance and economic growth in Asia," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 260-272.
    28. Haggard, Stephan & Tiede, Lydia, 2011. "The Rule of Law and Economic Growth: Where are We?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 673-685, May.
    29. A. Chong & C. Calderón, 2000. "Causality and Feedback Between Institutional Measures and Economic Growth," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 69-81, March.
    30. Giuseppe Di Liddo & Cosimo Magazzino & Francesco Porcelli, 2018. "Government size, decentralization and growth: empirical evidence from Italian regions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(25), pages 2777-2791, May.
    31. Dzhumashev, Ratbek, 2014. "Corruption and growth: The role of governance, public spending, and economic development," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 202-215.
    32. Chaido Dritsaki, 2017. "Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test between Inflation and Nominal Interest Rates: Evidence from Three Countries of Europe," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(6), pages 120-129.
    33. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart & Mastruzzi, Massimo, 2010. "The worldwide governance indicators : methodology and analytical issues," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5430, The World Bank.
    34. Jay Pil Choi & Marcel Thum, 2005. "Corruption And The Shadow Economy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(3), pages 817-836, August.
    35. Rubin, Barnett R., 2000. "The Political Economy of War and Peace in Afghanistan," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 1789-1803, October.
    36. Arusha Cooray, 2009. "Government Expenditure, Governance and Economic Growth," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 51(3), pages 401-418, September.
    37. Johansen, Søren, 1992. "A Representation of Vector Autoregressive Processes Integrated of Order 2," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 188-202, June.
    38. Emara, Noha & Jhonsa, Eric, 2014. "Governance and economic growth: The case of Middle Eastern and North African countries," MPRA Paper 68683, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mohammad Ajmal Hameed & Mohammad Mafizur Rahman & Rasheda Khanam, 2023. "Analyzing the Consequences of Long-Run Civil War on Unemployment Rate: Empirical Evidence from Afghanistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-21, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fagbemi, Fisayo & Nzeribe, Geraldine & Osinubi, Tolulope & Asongu, Simplice, 2021. "Interconnections between Governance and Socioeconomic Conditions: Understanding Sub-Saharan African Challenges," MPRA Paper 111844, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Zhang Zhuo & Almalki Sultan Musaad O & Bashir Muhammad & Sher Khan, 2021. "Underlying the Relationship Between Governance and Economic Growth in Developed Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 12(3), pages 1314-1330, September.
    3. Licht, Amir N. & Goldschmidt, Chanan & Schwartz, Shalom H., 2007. "Culture rules: The foundations of the rule of law and other norms of governance," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 659-688, December.
    4. Huang, Chiung-Ju & Ho, Yuan-Hong, 2017. "Governance and economic growth in Asia," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 260-272.
    5. Qamar Abbas & Li Junqing & Muhammad Ramzan & Sumbal Fatima, 2021. "Role of Governance in Debt-Growth Relationship: Evidence from Panel Data Estimations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, May.
    6. Aziz, Ghazala & Sarwar, Suleman, 2023. "Revisit the role of governance indicators to achieve sustainable economic growth of Saudi Arabia – pre and post implementation of 2030 Vision," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 213-227.
    7. Mansour-Ichrakieh, Layal, 2020. "The impact of Israeli Geopolitical Risks on the Lebanese Financial Market: A Destabilizer Multiplier," MPRA Paper 99376, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Zhang, Zhengjie & Li, Fanghua & Liang, Wei & Huang, Litian & Jiang, Shaolin & Duan, Yinying, 2023. "Economic performance and natural resources commodity prices volatility under COVID-19 perspective: Moderating role of economic freedom," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    9. Joao Tovar Jalles, 2011. "The Impact Of Democracy And Corruption On The Debt-Growth Relationship In Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 36(4), pages 41-72, December.
    10. Samir Abdelhafidh, 2014. "External Debt and Economic Growth in Tunisia," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(6), pages 669-689, December.
    11. Shahiduzzaman, Md. & Alam, Khorshed, 2014. "The long-run impact of Information and Communication Technology on economic output: The case of Australia," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 623-633.
    12. Richard Bluhm & Adam Szirmai, 2011. "Institutions, Inequality and Growth: A review of theory and evidence on the institutional determinants of growth and inequality," Papers inwopa634, Innocenti Working Papers.
    13. Marwa Khouya & Abdelhay Benabdelhadi, 2020. "Good Governance And Its Impact On Economic Development: A Systematic Literature Review," Post-Print hal-04063762, HAL.
    14. Aysan, Ahmet Faruk & Nabli, Mustapha Kamel & Veganzones-Varoudakis, Marie-Ange, 2006. "Governance and private investment in the Middle East and North Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3934, The World Bank.
    15. Ghosal, Sayantan & Proto, Eugenio, 2009. "Democracy, collective action and intra-elite conflict," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(9-10), pages 1078-1089, October.
    16. Mpho Bosupeng & Janet Dzator & Andrew Nadolny, 2019. "Exchange Rate Misalignment and Capital Flight from Botswana: A Cointegration Approach with Risk Thresholds," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-26, June.
    17. Wilson, Ross, 2016. "Does Governance Cause Growth? Evidence from China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 138-151.
    18. Matteo Cervellati & Piergiuseppe Fortunato & Uwe Sunde, 2008. "Hobbes to Rousseau: Inequality, Institutions and Development," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(531), pages 1354-1384, August.
    19. Cervellati Matteo & Fortunato Piergiuseppe & Sunde Uwe, 2012. "Consensual and Conflictual Democratization," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-51, December.
    20. Md. Shahiduzzaman & Khorshed Alam, 2014. "A reassessment of energy and GDP relationship: the case of Australia," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 323-344, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Governance; The rule of law; Corruption control; Economic growth; Causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K0 - Law and Economics - - General
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:futbus:v:6:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1186_s43093-020-00039-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.