IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/eujhec/v17y2016i8d10.1007_s10198-015-0744-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The diffusion of generics after patent expiry in Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Katharina Elisabeth Fischer

    (Universität Hamburg)

  • Tom Stargardt

    (Universität Hamburg)

Abstract

To identify the influences on the diffusion of generics after patent expiry, we analyzed 65 generic entries using prescription data of a large German sickness fund between 2007 and 2012 in a sales model. According to theory, several elements are responsible for technology diffusion: (1) time reflecting the rate of adaption within the social system, (2) communication channels, and (3) the degree of incremental innovation, e.g., the modifications of existing active ingredient’s strength. We investigated diffusion in two ways: (1) generic market share (percentage of generic prescriptions of all prescriptions of a substance) and, (2) generic sales quantity (number of units sold) over time. We specified mixed regression models. Generic diffusion takes considerable time. An average generic market share of about 75 % was achieved not until 48 months. There was a positive effect of time since generic entry on generic market share (p

Suggested Citation

  • Katharina Elisabeth Fischer & Tom Stargardt, 2016. "The diffusion of generics after patent expiry in Germany," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 17(8), pages 1027-1040, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eujhec:v:17:y:2016:i:8:d:10.1007_s10198-015-0744-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10198-015-0744-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10198-015-0744-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10198-015-0744-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jay Verkuilen & Michael Smithson, 2012. "Mixed and Mixture Regression Models for Continuous Bounded Responses Using the Beta Distribution," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, , vol. 37(1), pages 82-113, February.
    2. Costa-Font, Joan & Rudisill, Caroline & Tan, Stefanie, 2014. "Brand loyalty, patients and limited generic medicines uptake," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 224-233.
    3. Tom Stargardt, 2010. "The impact of reference pricing on switching behaviour and healthcare utilisation: the case of statins in Germany," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 11(3), pages 267-277, June.
    4. Thomas Aronsson & Mats Bergman & Niklas Rudholm, 2001. "The Impact of Generic Drug Competition on Brand Name Market Shares – Evidence from Micro Data," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 19(4), pages 423-433, December.
    5. Vakratsas, Demetrios & Kolsarici, Ceren, 2008. "A dual-market diffusion model for a new prescription pharmaceutical," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 282-293.
    6. John Hauser & Gerard J. Tellis & Abbie Griffin, 2006. "Research on Innovation: A Review and Agenda for," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(6), pages 687-717, 11-12.
    7. Panos Kanavos & Joan Costa-Font & Elizabeth Seeley, 2008. "Competition in off-patent drug markets: Issues, regulation and evidence [‘Substitution laws, insurance coverage, and generic drug use’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 23(55), pages 500-544.
    8. Regan, Tracy L., 2008. "Generic entry, price competition, and market segmentation in the prescription drug market," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 930-948, July.
    9. Laura Magazzini & Fabio Pammolli & Massimo Riccaboni, 2004. "Dynamic competition in pharmaceuticals," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 5(2), pages 175-182, May.
    10. Peres, Renana & Muller, Eitan & Mahajan, Vijay, 2010. "Innovation diffusion and new product growth models: A critical review and research directions," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 91-106.
    11. Marc Fischer & Peter Leeflang & Peter Verhoef, 2010. "Drivers of peak sales for pharmaceutical brands," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 429-460, December.
    12. Richard G. Frank & David S. Salkever, 1997. "Generic Entry and the Pricing of Pharmaceuticals," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 75-90, March.
    13. Costa-Font, Joan & McGuire, Alistair & Varol, Nebibe, 2014. "Price regulation and relative delays in generic drug adoption," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-9.
    14. Fereshteh Barei & Claude Le Pen & Steven Simoens, 2013. "The generic pharmaceutical industry: moving beyond incremental innovation towards re-innovation," Post-Print hal-01507535, HAL.
    15. Sotiris Vandoros & Panos Kanavos, 2013. "The generics paradox revisited: empirical evidence from regulated markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(22), pages 3230-3239, August.
    16. Peter Leeflang & Jaap Wieringa, 2010. "Modeling the effects of pharmaceutical marketing," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 121-133, June.
    17. Andrew T. Ching, 2010. "A Dynamic Oligopoly Structural Model For The Prescription Drug Market After Patent Expiration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1175-1207, November.
    18. Stremersch, S. & Lemmens, A., 2008. "Sales Growth of New Pharmaceuticals Across the Globe: The Role of Regulatory Regimes," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2008-026-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    19. Puig-Junoy, Jaume & Moreno-Torres, Iván, 2010. "Do generic firms and the Spanish public purchaser respond to consumer price differences of generics under reference pricing?," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(2-3), pages 186-194, December.
    20. Darius Lakdawalla & Tomas Philipson & Y. Richard Wang, 2006. "Intellectual Property and Marketing," NBER Working Papers 12577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Jörgen Hellström & Niklas Rudholm, 2010. "Uncertainty in the generic versus brand name prescription decision," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 503-521, June.
    22. Stefan Stremersch & Aurélie Lemmens, 2009. "Sales Growth of New Pharmaceuticals Across the Globe: The Role of Regulatory Regimes," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(4), pages 690-708, 07-08.
    23. Duflos, Gautier & Lichtenberg, Frank R., 2012. "Does competition stimulate drug utilization? The impact of changes in market structure on US drug prices, marketing and utilization," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 95-109.
    24. Glenn Ellison & Sara Fisher Ellison, 2011. "Strategic Entry Deterrence and the Behavior of Pharmaceutical Incumbents Prior to Patent Expiration," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 1-36, February.
    25. Peter N. Golder & Gerard J. Tellis, 2004. "Growing, Growing, Gone: Cascades, Diffusion, and Turning Points in the Product Life Cycle," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(2), pages 207-218, December.
    26. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
    27. Maurus Rischatsch & Maria Trottmann & Peter Zweifel, 2013. "Generic substitution, financial interests, and imperfect agency," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 115-138, June.
    28. Arrigo Opocher & Ian Steedman, 2008. "The industry supply curve: Two different traditions," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 247-274.
    29. Gonzalez, Jorge & Sismeiro, Catarina & Dutta, Shantanu & Stern, Philip, 2008. "Can branded drugs benefit from generic entry? The role of detailing and price in switching to non-bioequivalent molecules," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 247-260.
    30. Grabowski, Henry G & Vernon, John M, 1992. "Brand Loyalty, Entry, and Price Competition in Pharmaceuticals after the 1984 Drug Act," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(2), pages 331-350, October.
    31. Catherine M. Banbury & Will Mitchell, 1995. "The effect of introducing important incremental innovations on market share and business survival," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(S1), pages 161-182.
    32. Patricia M. Danzon & Michael F. Furukawa, 2011. "Cross-National Evidence on Generic Pharmaceuticals: Pharmacy vs. Physician-Driven Markets," NBER Working Papers 17226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Iván Moreno-Torres & Jaume Puig-Junoy & Joan-Ramon Borrell, 2009. "Generic Entry into the Regulated Spanish Pharmaceutical Market," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 34(4), pages 373-388, June.
    34. Sotiris Vandoros, 2014. "Therapeutic Substitution Post‐Patent Expiry: The Cases Of Ace Inhibitors And Proton Pump Inhibitors," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 621-630, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fiorentini, Gianluca & Bruni, Matteo Lippi & Mammi, Irene, 2022. "The same old medicine but cheaper: The impact of patent expiry on physicians’ prescribing behaviour," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 37-68.
    2. Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2022. "The effects of dynamic and static competition on prescription drug prices in Denmark, 1997–2017," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 1155-1173, September.
    3. Guhl, Dennis & Stargardt, Tom & Schneider, Udo & Fischer, Katharina E., 2016. "Dispensing behaviour of pharmacies in prescription drug markets," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 190-197.
    4. Böhm, Anna-Katharina & Steiner, Isa Maria & Stargardt, Tom, 2023. "Market diffusion of biosimilars in off-patent biologic drug markets across Europe," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    5. Afschin Gandjour & Dennis A. Ostwald, 2018. "Sacubitril/Valsartan (LCZ696): A Novel Treatment for Heart Failure and its Estimated Cost Effectiveness, Budget Impact, and Disease Burden Reduction in Germany," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 36(10), pages 1285-1296, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Victoria Serra-Sastre & Simona Bianchi & Jorge Mestre-Ferrandiz & Phill O’Neill, 2021. "Does NICE influence the adoption and uptake of generics in the UK?," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 22(2), pages 229-242, March.
    2. Serra-Sastre, Victoria & Bianchi, Simona & Mestre-Ferrandiz, Jorge & O’Neill, Phill, 2021. "Does NICE influence the adoption and uptake of generics in the UK?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113639, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Costa-Font, Joan & McGuire, Alistair & Varol, Nebibe, 2014. "Price regulation and relative delays in generic drug adoption," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-9.
    4. Patricia M. Danzon & Michael F. Furukawa, 2011. "Cross-National Evidence on Generic Pharmaceuticals: Pharmacy vs. Physician-Driven Markets," NBER Working Papers 17226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Kanavos, Panos, 2014. "Measuring performance in off-patent drug markets: A methodological framework and empirical evidence from twelve EU Member States," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 229-241.
    6. Joan Costa-i-Font & Alistair McGuire & Nebibe Varol, 2011. "Does Pharmaceutical Price Regulation Affect the Adoption of Generic Competition? Evidence from the OECD, 1999-2008," CESifo Working Paper Series 3441, CESifo.
    7. Kaiser, Ulrich & Mendez, Susan J. & Rønde, Thomas & Ullrich, Hannes, 2014. "Regulation of pharmaceutical prices: Evidence from a reference price reform in Denmark," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 174-187.
    8. Herr, A. & Suppliet, M., 2011. "Co-Payment Exemptions and Reference Prices: an Empirical Study of Pharmaceutical Prices in Germany," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 11/18, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    9. Kurt R. Brekke & Chiara Canta & Odd Rune StraumeAuthor-Email: o.r.straume@eeg.uminho.p, 2015. "Does Reference Pricing Drive Out Generic Competition in Pharmaceutical Markets? Evidence from a Policy Reform," NIPE Working Papers 6/2015, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    10. Duflos, Gautier & Lichtenberg, Frank R., 2012. "Does competition stimulate drug utilization? The impact of changes in market structure on US drug prices, marketing and utilization," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 95-109.
    11. Hokkanen, Joni & Kangasharju, Aki & Linnosmaa, Ismo & Valtonen, Hannu, 2012. "Generic substitution policy, prices and market structure: evidence from a quasi-experiment in Finland," Working Papers 35, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    12. Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos & Buxton, Samantha & Khammash, Marwan & Stern, Philip, 2016. "Forecasting branded and generic pharmaceuticals," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 344-357.
    13. S. Buxton & Kostas Nikolopoulos & M. Khammash & P. Stern, 2015. "Modelling and Forecasting Branded and Generic Pharmaceutical Life Cycles: Assessment of the Number of Dispensed Units," Working Papers 15004, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
    14. Roger Feldman & Félix Lobo, 2013. "Competition in prescription drug markets: the roles of trademarks, advertising, and generic names," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 14(4), pages 667-675, August.
    15. Peres, Renana & Muller, Eitan & Mahajan, Vijay, 2010. "Innovation diffusion and new product growth models: A critical review and research directions," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 91-106.
    16. Brekke, Kurt R. & Canta, Chiara & Straume, Odd Rune, 2016. "Reference pricing with endogenous generic entry," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 312-329.
    17. Fiorentini, Gianluca & Bruni, Matteo Lippi & Mammi, Irene, 2022. "The same old medicine but cheaper: The impact of patent expiry on physicians’ prescribing behaviour," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 37-68.
    18. Goodwin, Paul & Meeran, Sheik & Dyussekeneva, Karima, 2014. "The challenges of pre-launch forecasting of adoption time series for new durable products," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1082-1097.
    19. repec:nip:nipewp:06/2015 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Takizawa, Osamu & Urushihara, Hisashi & Tanaka, Shiro & Kawakami, Koji, 2015. "Price difference as a predictor of the selection between brand name and generic statins in Japan," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(5), pages 612-619.
    21. Porath, Daniel, 2016. "Size and dynamics of order-of-entry effects in pharmaceutical markets," UASM Discussion Paper Series 4/2016, University of Applied Sciences Mainz.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pharmaceutical industry; Market regulation; Off-patent markets; Product life cycle; Generic entry; Generic market share;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:eujhec:v:17:y:2016:i:8:d:10.1007_s10198-015-0744-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.