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The diffusion of generics after patent expiry in Germany

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  • Katharina Elisabeth Fischer

    (Universität Hamburg)

  • Tom Stargardt

    (Universität Hamburg)

Abstract

To identify the influences on the diffusion of generics after patent expiry, we analyzed 65 generic entries using prescription data of a large German sickness fund between 2007 and 2012 in a sales model. According to theory, several elements are responsible for technology diffusion: (1) time reflecting the rate of adaption within the social system, (2) communication channels, and (3) the degree of incremental innovation, e.g., the modifications of existing active ingredient’s strength. We investigated diffusion in two ways: (1) generic market share (percentage of generic prescriptions of all prescriptions of a substance) and, (2) generic sales quantity (number of units sold) over time. We specified mixed regression models. Generic diffusion takes considerable time. An average generic market share of about 75 % was achieved not until 48 months. There was a positive effect of time since generic entry on generic market share (p

Suggested Citation

  • Katharina Elisabeth Fischer & Tom Stargardt, 2016. "The diffusion of generics after patent expiry in Germany," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 17(8), pages 1027-1040, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eujhec:v:17:y:2016:i:8:d:10.1007_s10198-015-0744-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10198-015-0744-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Fiorentini, Gianluca & Bruni, Matteo Lippi & Mammi, Irene, 2022. "The same old medicine but cheaper: The impact of patent expiry on physicians’ prescribing behaviour," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 37-68.
    2. Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2022. "The effects of dynamic and static competition on prescription drug prices in Denmark, 1997–2017," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 1155-1173, September.
    3. Guhl, Dennis & Stargardt, Tom & Schneider, Udo & Fischer, Katharina E., 2016. "Dispensing behaviour of pharmacies in prescription drug markets," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 190-197.
    4. Böhm, Anna-Katharina & Steiner, Isa Maria & Stargardt, Tom, 2023. "Market diffusion of biosimilars in off-patent biologic drug markets across Europe," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    5. Afschin Gandjour & Dennis A. Ostwald, 2018. "Sacubitril/Valsartan (LCZ696): A Novel Treatment for Heart Failure and its Estimated Cost Effectiveness, Budget Impact, and Disease Burden Reduction in Germany," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 36(10), pages 1285-1296, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pharmaceutical industry; Market regulation; Off-patent markets; Product life cycle; Generic entry; Generic market share;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets

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