Forecasting branded and generic pharmaceuticals
We forecast UK pharmaceutical time series before and after the time of patent expiry. This is a critical point in the lifecycle, as a generic form of the product is then introduced into the market, while the branded form is still available for prescription. Forecasting the numbers of units of branded and generic forms of pharmaceuticals dispensed is becoming increasingly important, due to their huge market value and the limited number of new ‘blockbuster’ branded drugs, as well as the imposed cost for national healthcare systems like the NHS. In this paper, eleven methods are used to forecast drug time series, including diffusion models (Bass model & RPDM), ARIMA, exponential smoothing (Simple and Holt), naïve and regression methods. ARIMA and Holt produce accurate short term (annual) forecasts for branded and generic drugs respectively, while for the more strategic horizons of 2–5 years ahead, naïve with drift provides the most accurate forecasts.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 32 (2016)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Polli, Rolando & Cook, Victor, 1969. "Validity of the Product Life Cycle," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(4), pages 385-400, October.
- Makridakis, Spyros & Hibon, Michele, 2000. "The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 451-476.
- Andrew T. Ching & Masakazu Ishihara, 2012. "Measuring the Informative and Persuasive Roles of Detailing on Prescribing Decisions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(7), pages 1374-1387, July.
- Ambar G. Rao & Masataka Yamada, 1988. "Forecasting with a Repeat Purchase Diffusion Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(6), pages 734-752, June.
- Marc Fischer & Peter Leeflang & Peter Verhoef, 2010. "Drivers of peak sales for pharmaceutical brands," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 429-460, December.
- Richard G. Frank & David S. Salkever, 1997.
"Generic Entry and the Pricing of Pharmaceuticals,"
Journal of Economics & Management Strategy,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 75-90, 03.
- Richard G. Frank & David S. Salkever, 1995. "Generic Entry and the Pricing of Pharmaceuticals," NBER Working Papers 5306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Scott Armstrong, J. & Brodie, Roderick J. & McIntyre, Shelby H., 1987. "Forecasting methods for marketing: Review of empirical research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(3-4), pages 355-376.
- Rajshree Agarwal & Michael Gort, 2002. "Firm and Product Life Cycles and Firm Survival," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 184-190, May.
- William E. Cox & Jr., 1967. "Product Life Cycles as Marketing Models," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40, pages 375-375.
- Peter N. Golder & Gerard J. Tellis, 2004. "Growing, Growing, Gone: Cascades, Diffusion, and Turning Points in the Product Life Cycle," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(2), pages 207-218, December.
- Bauer, Hans H. & Fischer, Marc, 2000. "Product life cycle patterns for pharmaceuticals and their impact on R&D profitability of late mover products," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(6), pages 703-725, December.
- Darroch, Jenny & Miles, Morgan P., 2011. "A research note on market creation in the pharmaceutical industry," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(7), pages 723-727, July.
- Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
- Assimakopoulos, V. & Nikolopoulos, K., 2000. "The theta model: a decomposition approach to forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 521-530.
- Petropoulos, Fotios & Makridakis, Spyros & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2014. "‘Horses for Courses’ in demand forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(1), pages 152-163.
- Thomas Aronsson & Mats Bergman & Niklas Rudholm, 2001. "The Impact of Generic Drug Competition on Brand Name Market Shares – Evidence from Micro Data," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 19(4), pages 423-433, December.
- Verniers, I.W.J. & Stremersch, S. & Croux, C., 2011. "The Global Entry of New Pharmaceuticals: A Joint Investigation of Launch Window and Price," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2011-010-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
- Ricardo Montoya & Oded Netzer & Kamel Jedidi, 2010. "Dynamic Allocation of Pharmaceutical Detailing and Sampling for Long-Term Profitability," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(5), pages 909-924, 09-10.
- Gary L. Lilien & Ambar G. Rao & Shlomo Kalish, 1981. "Bayesian Estimation and Control of Detailing Effort in a Repeat Purchase Diffusion Environment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(5), pages 493-506, May. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:32:y:2016:i:2:p:344-357. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.