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Are exports a reliable source of economic growth in MENA countries? New evidence from the rolling Granger causality method

Author

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  • Salah Abosedra

    () (American University in the Emirates)

  • Chor Foon Tang

    (Universiti Sains Malaysia)

Abstract

Earlier investigations have concentrated on the effect of export expansion on economic growth while ignoring the importance of the stability of such relationship. This paper re-investigates empirically the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis for five countries in the MENA region: Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia, and Turkey, using the Granger causality technique. This study covers the sample period from 1980:Q1 to 2012:Q4. With the full sample, we find evidence supporting the ELG hypothesis only in Jordan, Morocco, and Turkey. Nonetheless, our time-varying Granger causality results have significantly validated the evidence of instability of the ELG hypothesis in these MENA countries. Therefore, changes in policies and regulations to improve the export sector of these countries will not ultimately pay off in terms of achieving high rates of stable economic growth in these countries. Policymakers in these countries should search for the alternative catalyst of growth to continuously as well as to effectively promote long-term economic growth in these countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Salah Abosedra & Chor Foon Tang, 2019. "Are exports a reliable source of economic growth in MENA countries? New evidence from the rolling Granger causality method," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 831-841, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:56:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s00181-017-1374-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-017-1374-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tang, Chor Foon & Abosedra, Salah, 2019. "Logistics performance, exports, and growth: Evidence from Asian economies," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Granger causality; Export-led growth; MENA; Rolling regression;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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