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Can the LR test be helpful in choosing the optimal lag order in the VAR model when information criteria suggest different lag orders?


  • A. Hatemi-J
  • R. S. Hacker


The objective of this simulation study is to investigate whether the likelihood ratio (LR) test can pick the optimal lag order in the vector autoregressive model when the most applied information criteria (i.e. vector Schwarz-Bayesian, SBC and vector Hannan-Quinn, HQC) suggest two different lag orders. This lag-choosing procedure has been suggested by Hatemi-J (1999). The results based on the Monte Carlo simulations show that combining the LR test with SBC and HQC causes a substantial increase in the success rate of choosing the optimal lag order compared to cases when only SBC or HQC are used. This appears to be the case irrespective of homoscedasticity or conditional heteroscedasticity properties of the error-term in small sample sizes. This improvement in choosing the right lag order also tends to improve the forecasting capability of the underlying model.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Hatemi-J & R. S. Hacker, 2009. "Can the LR test be helpful in choosing the optimal lag order in the VAR model when information criteria suggest different lag orders?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(9), pages 1121-1125.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:41:y:2009:i:9:p:1121-1125
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840601019273

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. A. Hatemi-J, 2003. "A new method to choose optimal lag order in stable and unstable VAR models," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 135-137.
    2. R. Scott Hacker & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2005. "A test for multivariate ARCH effects," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(7), pages 411-417.
    3. Hirotugu Akaike, 1969. "Fitting autoregressive models for prediction," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 21(1), pages 243-247, December.
    4. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Taggert Brooks, 2003. "A new criteria for selecting the optimum lags in Johansen's cointegration technique," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(8), pages 875-880.
    5. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    6. R. Scott Hacker & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2003. "How productivity and domestic output are related to exports and foreign output in the case of Sweden," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 767-782, November.
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