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A revisitation of the export-led growth hypothesis in Malaysia using the leveraged bootstrap simulation and rolling causality techniques

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  • Chor Foon Tang

Abstract

According to the neoclassical growth theory, export expansion could stimulate economic growth because it promotes specialisation and raises factor productivity. Thus, many developing countries depend heavily on export-orientated businesses to accelerate economic growth. Nevertheless, the causality evidences on the export-led growth hypothesis remain elusive and controversial. Two primary empirical questions emerged in the international trade and development literatures are: (a) Does the export-led growth hypothesis still valid? (b) Why causality evidences are inconsistent among studies? In light of these, the present study attempts to contribute to the export-led growth literature by using the Malaysian data set. This study covers the monthly data set from January 1975 to August 2010. To achieve the objectives of this study, we employ the leveraged bootstrap simulation causality test and also the rolling regression-based causality tests. The leveraged bootstrap simulation causality results suggest that exports and output growth are bilateral causality in nature. However, the rolling causality results demonstrate that the causality inferences for export-led growth hypothesis are unstable over time. For this reason, policy initiative to promote exports may not always stimulate economic growth and development in Malaysia. Therefore, balancing policy is urged to ensure that the economic growth in Malaysia can be materialised.

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  • Chor Foon Tang, 2013. "A revisitation of the export-led growth hypothesis in Malaysia using the leveraged bootstrap simulation and rolling causality techniques," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(11), pages 2332-2340, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:40:y:2013:i:11:p:2332-2340
    DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2013.810195
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    Cited by:

    1. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad & Jammazi, Rania, 2016. "Nexus between U.S Energy Sources and Economic Activity: Time-Frequency and Bootstrap Rolling Window Causality Analysis," MPRA Paper 68724, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Jan 2016.
    2. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Alexander Ludwig, 2014. "The export-led growth hypothesis for India: examining causality by a new approach in the time-frequency domain," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(18), pages 1297-1301, December.
    3. Bibhuti Ranjan Mishra, 2020. "Role of External and Domestic Demand in Economic Growth: A Study of BRICS Countries," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(2), pages 547-566, April.
    4. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Naifar, Nader & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Directional predictability from oil market uncertainty to sovereign credit spreads of oil-exporting countries: Evidence from rolling windows and crossquantilogram analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 327-339.
    5. Md. Samsul Alam & Sajid Ali & Naceur Khraief & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2021. "Time‐varying causal nexuses between economic growth and CO2 emissions in G‐7 countries: A bootstrap rolling window approach over 1820–2015," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 6128-6148, October.
    6. Tang, Chor Foon & Abosedra, Salah, 2019. "Logistics performance, exports, and growth: Evidence from Asian economies," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    7. Tang, Chor Foon & Lai, Yew Wah & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2015. "How stable is the export-led growth hypothesis? Evidence from Asia's Four Little Dragons," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 229-235.
    8. Salah Abosedra & Chor Foon Tang, 2019. "Are exports a reliable source of economic growth in MENA countries? New evidence from the rolling Granger causality method," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 831-841, March.
    9. Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Czudaj, Robert L., 2020. "Renewable energy consumption and industrial production: A disaggregated time-frequency analysis for the U.S," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    10. Sasa OBRADOVIĆ & Nemanja LOJANICA, 2019. "Export-Led Growth: Evidence from Post-Communist Serbia," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 131-145, June.
    11. Chor Foon Tang & Ilhan Ozturk, 2017. "Can Inflation be Claimed as a Monetary Phenomenon? The Malaysian Experience," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 453-460.

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