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Groundwater depletion and climate change: future prospects of crop production in the Central High Plains Aquifer

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  • Kayla A. Cotterman

    (Michigan State University)

  • Anthony D. Kendall

    (Michigan State University)

  • Bruno Basso

    (Michigan State University
    Michigan State University)

  • David W. Hyndman

    (Michigan State University)

Abstract

Crop production in the Central High Plains is at an all-time high due to increased demand for biofuels, food, and animal products. Despite the need to produce more food by mid-century to meet expected population growth, under current management and genetics, crop production is likely to plateau or decline in the Central High Plains due to groundwater withdrawal at rates that greatly exceed recharge to the aquifer. The Central High Plains has experienced a consistent decline in groundwater storage due to groundwater withdrawal for irrigation greatly exceeding natural recharge. In this heavily irrigated region, water is essential to maintain yields and economic stability. Here, we evaluate how current trends in irrigation demand may impact groundwater depletion and quantify the impacts of these changes on crop yield and production through to 2099 using the well-established System Approach to Land Use Sustainability (SALUS) crop model. The results show that status quo groundwater management will likely reduce irrigated corn acreage by ~60% and wheat acreage by ~50%. This widespread forced shift to dryland farming, coupled with the likely effects of climate change, will contribute to overall changes in crop production. Taking into account both changes in yield and available irrigated acreage, corn production would decrease by approximately 60%, while production of wheat would remain fairly steady with a slight increase of about 2%.

Suggested Citation

  • Kayla A. Cotterman & Anthony D. Kendall & Bruno Basso & David W. Hyndman, 2018. "Groundwater depletion and climate change: future prospects of crop production in the Central High Plains Aquifer," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 187-200, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:146:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-017-1947-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1947-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Foster, T. & Brozović, N., 2018. "Simulating Crop-Water Production Functions Using Crop Growth Models to Support Water Policy Assessments," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 9-21.
    2. Chen, Yong & Marek, Gary W. & Marek, Thomas H. & Moorhead, Jerry E. & Heflin, Kevin R. & Brauer, David K. & Gowda, Prasanna H. & Srinivasan, Raghavan, 2019. "Simulating the impacts of climate change on hydrology and crop production in the Northern High Plains of Texas using an improved SWAT model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 13-24.
    3. Baogui Li & Gary W. Marek & Thomas H. Marek & Dana O. Porter & Srinivasulu Ale & Jerry E. Moorhead & David K. Brauer & Raghavan Srinivasan & Yong Chen, 2023. "Impacts of Ongoing Land-Use Change on Watershed Hydrology and Crop Production Using an Improved SWAT Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-17, March.
    4. Kelechi Igwe & Vaishali Sharda & Trevor Hefley, 2023. "Evaluating the Impact of Future Seasonal Climate Extremes on Crop Evapotranspiration of Maize in Western Kansas Using a Machine Learning Approach," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-26, July.
    5. Reyes, Julian & Elias, Emile & Haacker, Erin & Kremen, Amy & Parker, Lauren & Rottler, Caitlin, 2020. "Assessing agricultural risk management using historic crop insurance loss data over the ogallala aquifer," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    6. Jordan Labbe & Hélène Celle & Jean-Luc Devidal & Julie Albaric & Gilles Mailhot, 2023. "Combined Impacts of Climate Change and Water Withdrawals on the Water Balance at the Watershed Scale—The Case of the Allier Alluvial Hydrosystem (France)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-23, February.
    7. Travis A. Dahl & Anthony D. Kendall & David W. Hyndman, 2021. "Climate and hydrologic ensembling lead to differing streamflow and sediment yield predictions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-15, March.
    8. Deines, Jillian M. & Schipanski, Meagan E. & Golden, Bill & Zipper, Samuel C. & Nozari, Soheil & Rottler, Caitlin & Guerrero, Bridget & Sharda, Vaishali, 2020. "Transitions from irrigated to dryland agriculture in the Ogallala Aquifer: Land use suitability and regional economic impacts," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).

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