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Multi-Gas Forcing Stabilization with Minicam


  • Steven J. Smith and T.M.L. Wigley


This paper examines the role of climate forcing agents other than carbon dioxide using the MiniCAM integrated assessment model for both no-climatepolicy and policy emissions scenarios. Non-CO2 greenhouse-gas forcing is dominated by methane and tropospheric ozone. Assumptions about the prevalence of methane recovery and local air pollution controls in the no-policy cases are a critical determinant of methane and ozone-precursor emissions. When these factors are considered, emissions are substantially reduced relative to earlier estimates. This reduces their potential as climate mitigation agents through specific climate policies. Nevertheless, the addition of non-CO2 greenhouse gas and ozone precursor abatement options significantly reduces mitigation costs in the first half of the 21st century (by up to 40%) compared to the case where only CO2 abatement options are pursued. While the influences of aerosols are small by the end of the century, there is a significant interaction in the early 21st century between policies to reduce CO2 emissions and SO2 emissions, even in the presence of SO2-related pollution control policies. The attendant reduced aerosol cooling can more than offset the reduction in warming that accrues from reduced CO2. When non-CO2 gases are included in the policy, the net effect is that global-mean climate change to 2050 is practically unaffected by mitigation policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven J. Smith and T.M.L. Wigley, 2006. "Multi-Gas Forcing Stabilization with Minicam," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 373-392.
  • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:2006se_weyant-a19

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Malte Meinshausen & S. Smith & K. Calvin & J. Daniel & M. Kainuma & J-F. Lamarque & K. Matsumoto & S. Montzka & S. Raper & K. Riahi & A. Thomson & G. Velders & D.P. Vuuren, 2011. "The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 213-241, November.
    2. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2017:i:1:p:50-:d:124415 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Samuel Carrara & Giacomo Marangoni, 2013. "Non-CO2 greenhouse gas mitigation modeling with marginal abatement cost curv es: technical change, emission scenarios and policy costs," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2013(1), pages 91-124.
    4. Asbjørn Torvanger & Marianne Lund & Nathan Rive, 2013. "Carbon capture and storage deployment rates: needs and feasibility," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 187-205, February.
    5. Stephen Newbold & Adam Daigneault, 2009. "Climate Response Uncertainty and the Benefits of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 44(3), pages 351-377, November.
    6. Steven Smith & J. West & Page Kyle, 2011. "Economically consistent long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(3), pages 619-627, October.
    7. Robinson, Sherman & Mason d'Croz, Daniel & Islam, Shahnila & Sulser, Timothy B. & Robertson, Richard D. & Zhu, Tingju & Gueneau, Arthur & Pitois, Gauthier & Rosegrant, Mark W., 2015. "The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model description for version 3:," IFPRI discussion papers 1483, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. repec:spr:climat:v:146:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-017-1947-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Steven Smith & Joseph Karas & Jae Edmonds & Jiyong Eom & Andrew Mizrahi, 2013. "Sensitivity of multi-gas climate policy to emission metrics," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(4), pages 663-675, April.
    10. Sohl, Terry L. & Wimberly, Michael C. & Radeloff, Volker C. & Theobald, David M. & Sleeter, Benjamin M., 2016. "Divergent projections of future land use in the United States arising from different models and scenarios," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 337(C), pages 281-297.
    11. Dudley, Peter N. & Bonazza, Riccardo & Porter, Warren P., 2016. "Climate change impacts on nesting and internesting leatherback sea turtles using 3D animated computational fluid dynamics and finite volume heat transfer," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 320(C), pages 231-240.
    12. Kuik, Onno & Brander, Luke & Tol, Richard S.J., 2009. "Marginal abatement costs of greenhouse gas emissions: A meta-analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1395-1403, April.

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General


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