IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the climate change and its impact on rice yields of Haridwar district using PRECIS RCM data


  • G. Pranuthi

    (Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee)

  • S. K. Tripathi

    (Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee)


In the past few decades, continuous intervention with the environmental landscape in the form of land use practices (water diversions, deforestation, local agriculture practices, industrialization etc.) in the Haridwar district of Uttarakhand, India, has impacted the region on various accounts. This is likely to be further aggravated in view of the increasing variability in the weather condition. Thus, there is urgent need felt to quantitatively asses the future climatic scenario for initiating and effectively undertaking the adaptation strategies for safe and sustained agricultural growth. For undertaking this study, PRECIS RCM data was downloaded for Roorkee grid station for the period (1961–2090). This PRECIS RCM data was biased corrected by merging two different bias correction methods which involves correcting mean and standard deviation simultaneously. Observed and bias corrected daily data was tested for their significance at 95% probability of occurrence employing various statistical methods such as correlation coefficient, mean bias error, normalized mean squared error, and Z and F statistical tests. These tests revealed that the difference between the observed and bias corrected PRECIS RCM data was insignificant. Trend analysis was done using Mann-Kendall’s test and Theil Sen’s Slope. Analysis of the bias corrected data revealed that the Roorkee station will, in general, record increasing trends in rainfall (at 5.83 mm/year), maximum temperature (at 0.05 °C/year), and minimum temperature (at 0.04 °C/year). This indicates that by 2090 AD present normal rainfall of 1006 mm/year will rise to 1447 mm/year; maximum temperature of 30.1 °C will rise to 33.9 °C and minimum temperature of 17.5 °C will rise to 20.5 °C by 2090. This weather scenario cautions at the future agronomic practices for sustained productivity. Grain yield of rice cv. Sharbati for the period 2014–2090 was simulated by running DSSAT CERES rice model with PRECIS RCM weather data of Haridwar district and RCP CO2 emission scenarios. The simulation result showed that if the crop is grown with the existing soil and crop management conditions, rice productivity of Haridwar in general will decrease 31.7 kgs/ha/year. This could be attributed to the climate change and decreased rice yields from increased maximum temperature. In the case of RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5, the effect of CO2 on grain yields is more pronounced compared to RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5. With the higher CO2 concentrations (above 450 ppm), the rice crop cv. Sharbati did not show much CO2 fertilization effect. DSSAT CERES rice simulations under climate change and higher CO2 concentrations showed that the yields will decline with the advancing climate change but CO2 intervention will compensate the loss in yield.

Suggested Citation

  • G. Pranuthi & S. K. Tripathi, 2018. "Assessing the climate change and its impact on rice yields of Haridwar district using PRECIS RCM data," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 265-278, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:148:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2176-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2176-4

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL:
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Junichi Fujino, Rajesh Nair, Mikiko Kainuma, Toshihiko Masui and Yuzuru Matsuoka, 2006. "Multi-gas Mitigation Analysis on Stabilization Scenarios Using Aim Global Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 343-354.
    2. Steven J. Smith and T.M.L. Wigley, 2006. "Multi-Gas Forcing Stabilization with Minicam," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 373-392.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sohl, Terry L. & Wimberly, Michael C. & Radeloff, Volker C. & Theobald, David M. & Sleeter, Benjamin M., 2016. "Divergent projections of future land use in the United States arising from different models and scenarios," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 337(C), pages 281-297.
    2. Angel Manuel Benitez Rodriguez & Ian Michael Trotter, 2019. "Climate change scenarios for Paraguayan power demand 2017–2050," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 425-445, October.
    3. Kuik, Onno & Brander, Luke & Tol, Richard S.J., 2009. "Marginal abatement costs of greenhouse gas emissions: A meta-analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1395-1403, April.
    4. Duro Moreno, Juan Antonio & Giménez Gómez, José M. (José Manuel) & Vilella, Cori, 2018. "The allocation of CO2 emissions as a claims problem," Working Papers 2072/351585, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    5. Guerra, Omar J. & Tejada, Diego A. & Reklaitis, Gintaras V., 2019. "Climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for a hydro-dominated power system via stochastic optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 584-598.
    6. Chen, Yong & Marek, Gary W. & Marek, Thomas H. & Moorhead, Jerry E. & Heflin, Kevin R. & Brauer, David K. & Gowda, Prasanna H. & Srinivasan, Raghavan, 2019. "Simulating the impacts of climate change on hydrology and crop production in the Northern High Plains of Texas using an improved SWAT model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 13-24.
    7. Malte Meinshausen & S. Smith & K. Calvin & J. Daniel & M. Kainuma & J-F. Lamarque & K. Matsumoto & S. Montzka & S. Raper & K. Riahi & A. Thomson & G. Velders & D.P. Vuuren, 2011. "The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 213-241, November.
    8. Duro, Juan Antonio & Giménez-Gómez, José-Manuel & Vilella, Cori, 2020. "The allocation of CO2 emissions as a claims problem," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    9. Muhammad Rizwan Shahid & Abdul Wakeel & Wajid Ishaque & Samia Ali & Kamran Baksh Soomro & Muhammad Awais, 2021. "Optimizing different adaptive strategies by using crop growth modeling under IPCC climate change scenarios for sustainable wheat production," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(8), pages 11310-11334, August.
    10. Kayla A. Cotterman & Anthony D. Kendall & Bruno Basso & David W. Hyndman, 2018. "Groundwater depletion and climate change: future prospects of crop production in the Central High Plains Aquifer," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 187-200, January.
    11. Jon Sampedro & Iñaki Arto & Mikel González-Eguino, 2017. "Implications of Switching Fossil Fuel Subsidies to Solar: A Case Study for the European Union," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(1), pages 1-12, December.
    12. Qian, Yuan & Scherer, Laura & Tukker, Arnold & Behrens, Paul, 2020. "China's potential SO2 emissions from coal by 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    13. Samuel Carrara & Giacomo Marangoni, 2013. "Non-CO2 greenhouse gas mitigation modeling with marginal abatement cost curv es: technical change, emission scenarios and policy costs," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2013(1), pages 91-124.
    14. Yong Chen & Gary W. Marek & Thomas H. Marek & Dana O. Porter & Jerry E. Moorhead & Qingyu Wang & Kevin R. Heflin & David K. Brauer, 2020. "Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Historical and Future Climate Data in the Texas High Plains," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(15), pages 1-19, July.
    15. Amélie Rajaud & Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, 2017. "Tropical semi-arid regions expanding over temperate latitudes under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(4), pages 703-719, October.
    16. Steven Smith & J. West & Page Kyle, 2011. "Economically consistent long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(3), pages 619-627, October.
    17. Nölte, Anja & Yousefpour, Rasoul & Hanewinkel, Marc, 2020. "Changes in sessile oak (Quercus petraea) productivity under climate change by improved leaf phenology in the 3-PG model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 438(C).
    18. Antolin, Luís A.S. & Heinemann, Alexandre B. & Marin, Fábio R., 2021. "Impact assessment of common bean availability in Brazil under climate change scenarios," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    19. Mason-D'Croz, Daniel & Sulser, Timothy B. & Wiebe, Keith & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Lowder, Sarah K. & Nin-Pratt, Alejandro & Willenbockel, Dirk & Robinson, Sherman & Zhu, Tingju & Cenacchi, Nicola & Duns, 2019. "Agricultural investments and hunger in Africa modeling potential contributions to SDG2 – Zero Hunger," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 38-53.
    20. Dudley, Peter N. & Bonazza, Riccardo & Porter, Warren P., 2016. "Climate change impacts on nesting and internesting leatherback sea turtles using 3D animated computational fluid dynamics and finite volume heat transfer," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 320(C), pages 231-240.

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:148:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2176-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.