IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agiwat/v221y2019icp13-24.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Simulating the impacts of climate change on hydrology and crop production in the Northern High Plains of Texas using an improved SWAT model

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Yong
  • Marek, Gary W.
  • Marek, Thomas H.
  • Moorhead, Jerry E.
  • Heflin, Kevin R.
  • Brauer, David K.
  • Gowda, Prasanna H.
  • Srinivasan, Raghavan

Abstract

Modeling the effects of climate change on hydrology and crop yield provides opportunities for choosing appropriate crops for adapting to climate change. In this study, climate change impacts on irrigated corn and sorghum, dryland (rainfed) sorghum, and continuous fallow in the Northern High Plains of Texas were evaluated using an improved Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model equipped with management allowed depletion (MAD) irrigation scheduling. Projected climate data (2020–2099) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP 5) of 19 General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used. Climate data were divided into four 20-year periods of near future (2020–2039), middle (2040–2059), late (2060–2079), and end (2080–2099) of the 21st century under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). For irrigated corn, median annual crop evapotranspiration (ET) and irrigation decreased by 8%–25% and 15%–42%, respectively, under the climate change scenarios compared to the historical period (2001–2010). The median yield was reduced by 3%–22% with exponentially decreases in the latter half of the 21st century. For sorghum, the reduction of median annual crop ET ranged from 6%–27%. However, the decline in the median annual irrigation was within 15%, except for the 2060–2079 and 2080–2099 periods under RCP 8.5 scenarios with 30% and 49% reductions in median annual irrigation. The median irrigated sorghum yield declined by 6%–42%. The median annual crop ET of dryland sorghum decreased by 10%–16%. The reduction in median yield was within 10% of the historical dryland sorghum yield. The decrease in median annual evaporation varied from 15%–23% under future continuous fallow conditions. The elevated CO2 level of future climate scenarios was the primary factor for the decrease in the ET and irrigation. The reduction in future crop yield was mainly attributed to the shortening of the maturity period caused by increased future temperature.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Yong & Marek, Gary W. & Marek, Thomas H. & Moorhead, Jerry E. & Heflin, Kevin R. & Brauer, David K. & Gowda, Prasanna H. & Srinivasan, Raghavan, 2019. "Simulating the impacts of climate change on hydrology and crop production in the Northern High Plains of Texas using an improved SWAT model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 13-24.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:221:y:2019:i:c:p:13-24
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2019.04.021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377418317980
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agwat.2019.04.021?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Junichi Fujino, Rajesh Nair, Mikiko Kainuma, Toshihiko Masui and Yuzuru Matsuoka, 2006. "Multi-gas Mitigation Analysis on Stabilization Scenarios Using Aim Global Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 343-354.
    2. Gheysari, Mahdi & Mirlatifi, Seyed Majid & Homaee, Mehdi & Asadi, Mohammad Esmaeil & Hoogenboom, Gerrit, 2009. "Nitrate leaching in a silage maize field under different irrigation and nitrogen fertilizer rates," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 96(6), pages 946-954, June.
    3. Jamie Sanderson & Sardar M. N. Islam, 2007. "Climate Change and Economic Development," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-59012-0.
    4. Detlef Vuuren & Elke Stehfest & Michel Elzen & Tom Kram & Jasper Vliet & Sebastiaan Deetman & Morna Isaac & Kees Klein Goldewijk & Andries Hof & Angelica Mendoza Beltran & Rineke Oostenrijk & Bas Ruij, 2011. "RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 95-116, November.
    5. Kayla A. Cotterman & Anthony D. Kendall & Bruno Basso & David W. Hyndman, 2018. "Groundwater depletion and climate change: future prospects of crop production in the Central High Plains Aquifer," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 187-200, January.
    6. Steven J. Smith and T.M.L. Wigley, 2006. "Multi-Gas Forcing Stabilization with Minicam," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 373-392.
    7. Wang, Ruoyu & Bowling, Laura C. & Cherkauer, Keith A. & Cibin, Raj & Her, Younggu & Chaubey, Indrajeet, 2017. "Biophysical and hydrological effects of future climate change including trends in CO2, in the St. Joseph River watershed, Eastern Corn Belt," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 180(PB), pages 280-296.
    8. Rose, Steven K. & Ahammad, Helal & Eickhout, Bas & Fisher, Brian & Kurosawa, Atsushi & Rao, Shilpa & Riahi, Keywan & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2012. "Land-based mitigation in climate stabilization," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 365-380.
    9. Yiping Wu & Shuguang Liu & Omar Abdul-Aziz, 2012. "Hydrological effects of the increased CO 2 and climate change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin using a modified SWAT," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 977-1003, February.
    10. Allyson Williams & Neil White & Shahbaz Mushtaq & Geoff Cockfield & Brendan Power & Louis Kouadio, 2015. "Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 183-196, March.
    11. Lin Ye & Nancy Grimm, 2013. "Modelling potential impacts of climate change on water and nitrate export from a mid-sized, semiarid watershed in the US Southwest," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 419-431, September.
    12. Adhikari, Pradip & Ale, Srinivasulu & Bordovsky, James P. & Thorp, Kelly R. & Modala, Naga R. & Rajan, Nithya & Barnes, Edward M., 2016. "Simulating future climate change impacts on seed cotton yield in the Texas High Plains using the CSM-CROPGRO-Cotton model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 164(P2), pages 317-330.
    13. Chen, Yong & Ale, Srinivasulu & Rajan, Nithya & Srinivasan, Raghavan, 2017. "Modeling the effects of land use change from cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) to perennial bioenergy grasses on watershed hydrology and water quality under changing climate," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 198-208.
    14. Louis Verchot & Meine Noordwijk & Serigne Kandji & Tom Tomich & Chin Ong & Alain Albrecht & Jens Mackensen & Cynthia Bantilan & K. Anupama & Cheryl Palm, 2007. "Climate change: linking adaptation and mitigation through agroforestry," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 12(5), pages 901-918, June.
    15. D.P. van Vuuren, B. Eickhout, P.L. Lucas and M.G.J. den Elzen, 2006. "Long-Term Multi-Gas Scenarios to Stabilise Radiative Forcing - Exploring Costs and Benefits Within an Integrated Assessment Framework," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 201-234.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kang, Xiaoyu & Qi, Junyu & Li, Sheng & Meng, Fan-Rui, 2022. "A watershed-scale assessment of climate change impacts on crop yields in Atlantic Canada," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    2. King, Darran A. & Meyer, Wayne S. & Connor, Jeffery D., 2019. "Interactive land use strategic assessment: An assessment tool for irrigation profitability under climate uncertainty," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Yong Chen & Gary W. Marek & Thomas H. Marek & Dana O. Porter & Jerry E. Moorhead & Qingyu Wang & Kevin R. Heflin & David K. Brauer, 2020. "Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Historical and Future Climate Data in the Texas High Plains," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-19, July.
    4. Elbeltagi, Ahmed & Deng, Jinsong & Wang, Ke & Malik, Anurag & Maroufpoor, Saman, 2020. "Modeling long-term dynamics of crop evapotranspiration using deep learning in a semi-arid environment," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Yong & Ale, Srinivasulu & Rajan, Nithya & Srinivasan, Raghavan, 2017. "Modeling the effects of land use change from cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) to perennial bioenergy grasses on watershed hydrology and water quality under changing climate," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 198-208.
    2. Guerra, Omar J. & Tejada, Diego A. & Reklaitis, Gintaras V., 2019. "Climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for a hydro-dominated power system via stochastic optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 584-598.
    3. Robinson, Sherman & Mason d'Croz, Daniel & Islam, Shahnila & Sulser, Timothy B. & Robertson, Richard D. & Zhu, Tingju & Gueneau, Arthur & Pitois, Gauthier & Rosegrant, Mark W., 2015. "The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model description for version 3:," IFPRI discussion papers 1483, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Muhammad Rizwan Shahid & Abdul Wakeel & Wajid Ishaque & Samia Ali & Kamran Baksh Soomro & Muhammad Awais, 2021. "Optimizing different adaptive strategies by using crop growth modeling under IPCC climate change scenarios for sustainable wheat production," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(8), pages 11310-11334, August.
    5. Kuik, Onno & Brander, Luke & Tol, Richard S.J., 2009. "Marginal abatement costs of greenhouse gas emissions: A meta-analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1395-1403, April.
    6. Mason-D'Croz, Daniel & Sulser, Timothy B. & Wiebe, Keith & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Lowder, Sarah K. & Nin-Pratt, Alejandro & Willenbockel, Dirk & Robinson, Sherman & Zhu, Tingju & Cenacchi, Nicola & Duns, 2019. "Agricultural investments and hunger in Africa modeling potential contributions to SDG2 – Zero Hunger," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 38-53.
    7. Elettra Agliardi & Thomas Alexopoulos & Christian Cech, 2019. "On the Relationship Between GHGs and Global Temperature Anomalies: Multi-level Rolling Analysis and Copula Calibration," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(1), pages 109-133, January.
    8. G. Pranuthi & S. K. Tripathi, 2018. "Assessing the climate change and its impact on rice yields of Haridwar district using PRECIS RCM data," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 265-278, May.
    9. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    10. Duro, Juan Antonio & Giménez-Gómez, José-Manuel & Vilella, Cori, 2020. "The allocation of CO2 emissions as a claims problem," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    11. Kayla A. Cotterman & Anthony D. Kendall & Bruno Basso & David W. Hyndman, 2018. "Groundwater depletion and climate change: future prospects of crop production in the Central High Plains Aquifer," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 187-200, January.
    12. Qian, Yuan & Scherer, Laura & Tukker, Arnold & Behrens, Paul, 2020. "China's potential SO2 emissions from coal by 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    13. Samuel Carrara & Giacomo Marangoni, 2013. "Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Modeling with Marginal Abatement Cost Curves: Technical Change, Emission Scenarios and Policy Costs," Working Papers 2013.110, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    14. Amouzou, Kokou Adambounou & Naab, Jesse B. & Lamers, John P.A. & Borgemeister, Christian & Becker, Mathias & Vlek, Paul L.G., 2018. "CROPGRO-Cotton model for determining climate change impacts on yield, water- and N- use efficiencies of cotton in the Dry Savanna of West Africa," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 85-96.
    15. Yong Chen & Gary W. Marek & Thomas H. Marek & Dana O. Porter & Jerry E. Moorhead & Qingyu Wang & Kevin R. Heflin & David K. Brauer, 2020. "Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Historical and Future Climate Data in the Texas High Plains," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-19, July.
    16. Alice Favero & Robert Mendelsohn, 2013. "Evaluating the Global Role of Woody Biomass as a Mitigation Strategy," Working Papers 2013.37, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    17. Riccardo Rebonato & Riccardo Ronzani & Lionel Melin, 2023. "Robust management of climate risk damages," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(3), pages 1-43, September.
    18. Detlef Vuuren & Elke Stehfest & Michel Elzen & Tom Kram & Jasper Vliet & Sebastiaan Deetman & Morna Isaac & Kees Klein Goldewijk & Andries Hof & Angelica Mendoza Beltran & Rineke Oostenrijk & Bas Ruij, 2011. "RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 95-116, November.
    19. Sohl, Terry L. & Wimberly, Michael C. & Radeloff, Volker C. & Theobald, David M. & Sleeter, Benjamin M., 2016. "Divergent projections of future land use in the United States arising from different models and scenarios," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 337(C), pages 281-297.
    20. Zhang, Hailing & Liu, Changxin & Wang, Can, 2021. "Extreme climate events and economic impacts in China: A CGE analysis with a new damage function in IAM," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:221:y:2019:i:c:p:13-24. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agwat .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.