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Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Rollouts and Their Effects on Health Outcomes


  • Pragyan Deb

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Davide Furceri

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Daniel Jimenez

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Siddharth Kothari

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Jonathan D. Ostry

    (Georgetown University)

  • Nour Tawk

    (International Monetary Fund)


Background Vaccination against the coronavirus disease (SARS-CoV-2) is understood to be the key way out of the COVID-19 pandemic. Limited evidence exists on the determinants of vaccine rollouts and their health effects at the country level. Objective Examine the determinants of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and their effects on health outcomes. Methods Ordinary least squares regressions with standard errors clustered at the country level for Cross-section and Panel daily data of vaccinations and various health outcomes (new COVID-19 cases, fatalities, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions) for an unbalanced sample of about 200 countries during the period 16 December 2020 to 20 June 2021. Results We find evidence that: (i) early vaccine procurement, domestic production of vaccines, the severity of the pandemic, a country’s health infrastructure, and vaccine acceptance are significant determinants of the speed of vaccination rollouts; (ii) vaccine deployment significantly reduces new COVID-19 infections, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admissions, and fatalities, and is more effective when coupled with stringent containment measures, or when a country is experiencing a large outbreak; and (iii) COVID-19 cases in neighboring countries can lead to an increase in a country’s domestic caseload, and hamper efforts in taming its own local outbreak. Conclusions By providing an early broad overview of the quantitative empirical estimates of the determinants of vaccine rollouts and the effects of COVID-19 vaccines, our paper can help policymakers make informed decisions about local and global distributions of vaccines, as well as related policy tools, such as containment measure.

Suggested Citation

  • Pragyan Deb & Davide Furceri & Daniel Jimenez & Siddharth Kothari & Jonathan D. Ostry & Nour Tawk, 2023. "Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Rollouts and Their Effects on Health Outcomes," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 71-89, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:aphecp:v:21:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s40258-022-00757-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s40258-022-00757-6

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Mr. Pragyan Deb & Davide Furceri & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Nour Tawk, 2020. "The Effect of Containment Measures on the COVID-19 Pandemic," IMF Working Papers 2020/159, International Monetary Fund.
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    4. Isaiah Andrews & James H. Stock & Liyang Sun, 2019. "Weak Instruments in Instrumental Variables Regression: Theory and Practice," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 727-753, August.
    5. Ruchir Agarwal & Ms. Gita Gopinath, 2021. "A Proposal to End the COVID-19 Pandemic," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2021/004, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1993. "Modelling Non-Linear Economic Relationships," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773207.
    7. Philipp Engler & Nathalie Pouokam & Diego Rodriguez Guzman & Mrs. Irina Yakadina, 2020. "The Great Lockdown: International Risk Sharing Through Trade and Policy Coordination," IMF Working Papers 2020/242, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Hibah Khan & Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Frederico Lima & Alexandre Sollaci, 2021. "Who Doesn’t Want to be Vaccinated? Determinants of Vaccine Hesitancy During COVID-19," IMF Working Papers 2021/130, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Hernán Sánchez Pazmiño, 2022. "Immunizing the Economy: A Causality Discussion on Vaccines and Economic Recovery," X-pedientes_Economicos, X-pedientes Económicos, vol. 6(14), pages 65-82.

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    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • O50 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance


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