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Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Rollouts and Their Effects on Health Outcomes

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Pragyan Deb
  • Davide Furceri
  • Daniel Jimenez
  • Siddharth Kothari
  • Mr. Jonathan David Ostry
  • Nour Tawk

Abstract

This paper examines empirically the determinants of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and their effects on health outcomes. We assemble a comprehensive and novel cross-country database at a daily frequency on vaccinations and various health outcomes (new COVID-19 cases, fatalities, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions) for the period December 16, 2020-June 20, 2021. Using this data, we find that: (i) early vaccine procurement, domestic production of vaccines, the severity of the pandemic, a country’s health infrastructure, and vaccine acceptance are significant determinants of the speed of vaccination rollouts; (ii) vaccine deployment significantly reduces new COVID-19 infections, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admissions, and fatalities, and is more effective when coupled with stringent containment measures, or when a country is experiencing a large outbreak; and (iii) COVID-19 cases in neighboring countries can lead to an increase in a country’s domestic caseload, and hamper efforts in taming its own local outbreak.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Pragyan Deb & Davide Furceri & Daniel Jimenez & Siddharth Kothari & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Nour Tawk, 2021. "Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Rollouts and Their Effects on Health Outcomes," IMF Working Papers 2021/247, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/247
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    Cited by:

    1. Petrovici, Norbert & Belbe, Stefana (Ștefana) & Mare, Codruta (Codruța) & Cotoi, Calin (Călin), 2023. "Hybrid health regimes: Access to primary care physicians and COVID-19 vaccine uptake across municipalities in Romania," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 337(C).
    2. Daniel Hernán Sánchez Pazmiño, 2022. "Immunizing the Economy: A Causality Discussion on Vaccines and Economic Recovery," X-pedientes_Económicos, X-pedientes Económicos, vol. 6(14), pages 65-82.

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    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • O50 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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