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Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Rollouts and Their Effects on Health Outcomes

Author

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  • Ostry, Jonathan D.
  • Deb, Pragyan
  • Furceri, Davide
  • Jiménez, Daniel
  • Kothari, Siddharth
  • Tawk, Nour

Abstract

This paper examines empirically the determinants of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and their effects on health outcomes. We assemble a comprehensive and novel cross-country database at a daily frequency on vaccinations and various health outcomes (new COVID-19 cases, fatalities, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions) for the period December 16, 2020–June 20, 2021. Using this data, we find that: (i) early vaccine procurement, domestic production of vaccines, the severity of the pandemic, a country’s health infrastructure, and vaccine acceptance are significant determinants of the speed of vaccination rollouts; (ii) vaccine deployment significantly reduces new COVID-19 infections, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admissions, and fatalities, and is more effective when coupled with stringent containment measures, or when a country is experiencing a large outbreak; and (iii) COVID-19 cases in neighboring countries can lead to an increase in a country’s domestic caseload, and hamper efforts in taming its own local outbreak.

Suggested Citation

  • Ostry, Jonathan D. & Deb, Pragyan & Furceri, Davide & Jiménez, Daniel & Kothari, Siddharth & Tawk, Nour, 2021. "Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Rollouts and Their Effects on Health Outcomes," CEPR Discussion Papers 16681, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16681
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Pragyan Deb & Davide Furceri & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Nour Tawk, 2020. "The Effect of Containment Measures on the COVID-19 Pandemic," IMF Working Papers 2020/159, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    3. Rajeev K. Goel & Michael A. Nelson, 2021. "Drivers of COVID-19 vaccinations: vaccine delivery and delivery efficiency in the United States," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 53-69, June.
    4. Isaiah Andrews & James H. Stock & Liyang Sun, 2019. "Weak Instruments in Instrumental Variables Regression: Theory and Practice," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 727-753, August.
    5. Ruchir Agarwal & Ms. Gita Gopinath, 2021. "A Proposal to End the COVID-19 Pandemic," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2021/004, International Monetary Fund.
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    7. Philipp Engler & Nathalie Pouokam & Diego Rodriguez Guzman & Mrs. Irina Yakadina, 2020. "The Great Lockdown: International Risk Sharing Through Trade and Policy Coordination," IMF Working Papers 2020/242, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Hibah Khan & Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Frederico Lima & Alexandre Sollaci, 2021. "Who Doesn’t Want to be Vaccinated? Determinants of Vaccine Hesitancy During COVID-19," IMF Working Papers 2021/130, International Monetary Fund.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; Pandemics; Vaccinations; Containment measures;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • O50 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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