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The Effects of School Closures on COVID-19: A Cross-Country Panel Analysis

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  • Vincenzo Alfano

    (Westminster International University in Tashkent
    CES-ifo)

Abstract

Background There has been much debate about the effects and importance of closing, keeping closed, or not opening schools in order to prevent COVID-19 contagion. This policy has been questioned regarding both its efficacy and the social cost it entails, including the possible asymmetric impact it has on genders in many societies due to traditional childcare roles. To the best of our knowledge no existing contribution has attempted to gauge the effectiveness of such a policy over time, in a longitudinal cross-country perspective. Objectives This paper aimed to fill the gap in the literature by assessing, at a European level, the effect of school closures (or the lack of such measures) on the numbers of new COVID-19 infections, in the absence of vaccines. Given this policy’s expected change in effectiveness over time, we also measured the effectiveness of having schools closed after a given number of days (from 7 to 100). Methods We pursued our objectives by means of a quantitative panel analysis, building a longitudinal dataset with observations from countries in Europe, from 1 January to 30 September, and estimating the impact of school closure via feasible-generalised least-squares fixed effect and random effect estimators, and analysis of variance (ANOVA) mixed models. Results Our results show that having schools closed is effective in reducing the number of new cases. Countries that implement closure have fewer new COVID-19 cases than those that do not. This becomes a reality around 20 days after the implementation of the policy. Its efficacy continues to be detectable up to 100 days after implementation. The result is robust to controls for other forms of social distancing. Conclusion Results suggest that school closure is effective in reducing the number of people who are infected with COVID-19. Unlike what has been suggested in previous analyses or with regard to other diseases, its efficacy continues to be detectable up to 100 days after the introduction of the policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincenzo Alfano, 2022. "The Effects of School Closures on COVID-19: A Cross-Country Panel Analysis," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 223-233, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:aphecp:v:20:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s40258-021-00702-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s40258-021-00702-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Facundo Piguillem & Liyan Shi, 2022. "Optimal Covid-19 Quarantine and Testing Policies," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(647), pages 2534-2562.
    2. Sardar, Tridip & Nadim, Sk Shahid & Rana, Sourav & Chattopadhyay, Joydev, 2020. "Assessment of lockdown effect in some states and overall India: A predictive mathematical study on COVID-19 outbreak," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
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    4. João Pedro & Amer Hasan & Diana Goldemberg & Koen Geven & Syedah Aroob Iqbal, 2021. "Simulating the Potential Impacts of COVID-19 School Closures on Schooling and Learning Outcomes: A Set of Global Estimates [Tackling Inequity in Education during and after COVID-19]," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 36(1), pages 1-40.
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    Cited by:

    1. Emanuele Amodio & Michele Battisti & Antonio Francesco Gravina & Andrea Mario Lavezzi & Giuseppe Maggio, 2023. "School‐age vaccination, school openings and Covid‐19 diffusion," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 1084-1100, May.
    2. Darcy A. Freedman & Timothy H. Ciesielski & Owusua Yamoah & Elaine A. Borawski & Kristie R. Ross & Nora L. Nock & Eun Kyung Lee & Anastasia Dimitropoulos & Sonia Minnes & Kimberly Burkhart & Callie Og, 2022. "Improving Surveillance and Epidemic Response in Ohio Childcare Settings," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Lee, Ryan C. & Sood, Neeraj & Deva, Sohini & Macedo, Marisol & Soto, Daniel W. & Unger, Jennifer B., 2023. "Evaluation of a COVID-19 rapid antigen testing program among student athletes in a public high school district," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    4. Alfano, Vincenzo & Ercolano, Salvatore, 2022. "Back to school or … back to lockdown? The effects of opening schools on the diffusion of COVID-19 in Italian regions," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 82(PB).
    5. Janbani, Zahra & Osmani, Freshteh, 2023. "Performance of two educational approaches in increasing knowledge of high-school students about COVID-19 during the first wave of pandemic," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    6. Alfano, Vincenzo & Ercolano, Salvatore & Pinto, Mauro, 2022. "Carrot and stick: Economic support and stringency policies in response to COVID-19," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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