IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/hepoli/v125y2021i9p1200-1207.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

School openings and the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. A provincial-level analysis using the synthetic control method

Author

Listed:
  • Alfano, Vincenzo
  • Ercolano, Salvatore
  • Cicatiello, Lorenzo

Abstract

Schools have been central in the debate about COVID-19. On the one hand, many have argued that they should be kept open, given their importance to youngsters and the future of the country, and the effort many countries have made in establishing protocols to keep them safe. On the other hand, it has been argued that open schools further the spread of the virus, given that these are places with large-scale interaction between teenagers and adults accompanying their children, as well as a major source of congestion on public transportation. We aim to identify the effect of school openings on the spread of COVID-19 contagion. Italy offers an interesting quasi-experimental setting in this regard due to the scattered openings that schools have experienced. By means of a quantitative analysis, employing a synthetic control method approach, we find that Bolzano, the first province in Italy to open schools after the summer break, had far more cases than its synthetic counterfactual, built from a donor pool formed from the other Italian provinces. Results confirm the hypothesis that despite the precautions, opening schools causes an increase in the infection rate, and this must be taken into account by policymakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfano, Vincenzo & Ercolano, Salvatore & Cicatiello, Lorenzo, 2021. "School openings and the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. A provincial-level analysis using the synthetic control method," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(9), pages 1200-1207.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:hepoli:v:125:y:2021:i:9:p:1200-1207
    DOI: 10.1016/j.healthpol.2021.06.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168851021001676
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.healthpol.2021.06.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cerulli, Giovanni, 2019. "A flexible Synthetic Control Method for modeling policy evaluation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 40-44.
    2. Susan Athey & Guido W. Imbens, 2017. "The State of Applied Econometrics: Causality and Policy Evaluation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 3-32, Spring.
    3. Facundo Piguillem & Liyan Shi, 2022. "Optimal Covid-19 Quarantine and Testing Policies," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(647), pages 2534-2562.
    4. Sardar, Tridip & Nadim, Sk Shahid & Rana, Sourav & Chattopadhyay, Joydev, 2020. "Assessment of lockdown effect in some states and overall India: A predictive mathematical study on COVID-19 outbreak," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    5. Alberto Abadie, 2021. "Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 391-425, June.
    6. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    7. Benjamin Born & Alexander M Dietrich & Gernot J Müller, 2021. "The lockdown effect: A counterfactual for Sweden," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(4), pages 1-13, April.
    8. Vincenzo Alfano & Salvatore Ercolano, 2020. "The Efficacy of Lockdown Against COVID-19: A Cross-Country Panel Analysis," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 509-517, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. López-Mendoza, Héctor & González-Álvarez, María A. & Montañés, Antonio, 2024. "Assessing the effectiveness of international government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    2. Gabriele Ciminelli & Sílvia Garcia‐Mandicó, 2022. "When and how do business shutdowns work? Evidence from Italy's first COVID‐19 wave," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(9), pages 1823-1843, September.
    3. Alfano, Vincenzo & Cicatiello, Lorenzo & Ercolano, Salvatore, 2023. "Assessing the effectiveness of mandatory outdoor mask policy: The natural experiment of Campania," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    4. Alfano, Vincenzo, 2024. "Unlocking the importance of perceived governance: The impact on COVID-19 in NUTS-2 European regions," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 343(C).
    5. Lattanzio, Salvatore, 2024. "Schools and the transmission of Sars-Cov-2: Evidence from Italy," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    6. Vincenzo Alfano, 2022. "Work ethics, stay-at-home measures and COVID-19 diffusion," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 23(5), pages 893-901, July.
    7. Mingolla, Stefano & Lu, Zhongming, 2022. "Impact of implementation timing on the effectiveness of stay-at-home requirement under the COVID-19 pandemic: Lessons from the Italian Case," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(6), pages 504-511.
    8. Bonander, Carl & Ekman, Mats & Jakobsson, Niklas, 2022. "Vaccination nudges: A study of pre-booked COVID-19 vaccinations in Sweden," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    9. Alfano, Vincenzo, 2023. "God or good health? Evidence on belief in God in relation to public health during a pandemic," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    10. Mei, Yingdan & Liu, Wenbo & Wang, Jianliang & Bentley, Yongmei, 2022. "Shale gas development and regional economic growth: Evidence from Fuling, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PC).
    11. Lee, Ryan C. & Sood, Neeraj & Deva, Sohini & Macedo, Marisol & Soto, Daniel W. & Unger, Jennifer B., 2023. "Evaluation of a COVID-19 rapid antigen testing program among student athletes in a public high school district," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    12. Alfano, Vincenzo & Ercolano, Salvatore, 2022. "Back to school or … back to lockdown? The effects of opening schools on the diffusion of COVID-19 in Italian regions," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 82(PB).
    13. Vincenzo Alfano, 2022. "Does social capital enforce social distancing? The role of bridging and bonding social capital in the evolution of the pandemic," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 39(3), pages 839-859, October.
    14. Alfano, Vincenzo & Guarino, Massimo, 2023. "The effect of self-esteem on the spread of a pandemic. A cross-country analysis of the role played by self-esteem in the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    15. Giovanni Busetta & Maria Gabriella Campolo & Demetrio Panarello, 2023. "Economic expectations and anxiety during the COVID-19 pandemic: a one-year longitudinal evaluation on Italian university students," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 59-76, February.
    16. Vincenzo Alfano, 2022. "COVID-19 Diffusion Before Awareness: The Role of Football Match Attendance in Italy," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 23(5), pages 503-523, June.
    17. Janbani, Zahra & Osmani, Freshteh, 2023. "Performance of two educational approaches in increasing knowledge of high-school students about COVID-19 during the first wave of pandemic," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    18. Alfano, Vincenzo & Ercolano, Salvatore & Pinto, Mauro, 2022. "Carrot and stick: Economic support and stringency policies in response to COVID-19," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vincenzo Alfano & Salvatore Ercolano & Lorenzo Cicatiello, 2020. "A Synthetic Control Method Analysis of Schools Opening and Covid-19 Outbreak in Italy," CESifo Working Paper Series 8784, CESifo.
    2. Roy Cerqueti & Raffaella Coppier & Alessandro Girardi & Marco Ventura, 2022. "The sooner the better: lives saved by the lockdown during the COVID-19 outbreak. The case of Italy," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 46-70.
    3. David Gilchrist & Thomas Emery & Nuno Garoupa & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Synthetic Control Method: A tool for comparative case studies in economic history," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 409-445, April.
    4. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3249-3288, December.
    5. Michael Funke & Kadri Männasoo & Helery Tasane, 2023. "Regional Economic Impacts of the Øresund Cross-Border Fixed Link: Cui Bono?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10557, CESifo.
    6. Emiliano Toni & Pablo Paniagua & Patricio 'Ordenes, 2024. "Policy Changes and Growth Slowdown: Assessing the Lost Decade of the Latin American Miracle," Papers 2407.02003, arXiv.org.
    7. Stefano, Roberta di & Mellace, Giovanni, 2020. "The inclusive synthetic control method," Discussion Papers on Economics 14/2020, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
    8. Tomasz Serwach, 2022. "The European Union and within-country income inequalities. The case of the New Member States," Working Papers hal-03548416, HAL.
    9. Vincenzo Alfano & Salvatore Ercolano, 2022. "Stay at Home! Governance Quality and Effectiveness of Lockdown," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 159(1), pages 101-123, January.
    10. Zhang, Qian & Cheng, Baodong & Diao, Gang & Tao, Chenlu & Wang, Can, 2023. "Does China's natural forest logging ban affect the stability of the timber import trade network?," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    11. Kraft, Kornelius & Lammers, Alexander, 2021. "Bargaining Power and the Labor Share - a Structural Break Approach," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242342, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Frants, Marina, 2024. "Measuring the impact of economic sanctions on the Russian economy using the synthetic control group method," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 74, pages 104-123.
    13. Nils Verheuvel & Joost Witteman & Marilou Vlaanderen, 2023. "Synthetic Control Method for Dutch Policy Evaluation," De Economist, Springer, vol. 171(1), pages 51-83, March.
    14. Lucke, Bernd, 2022. "Growth Effects of European Monetary Union: A Synthetic Control Approach," MPRA Paper 115373, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Denti, Daria & Iammarino, Simona, 2022. "Coming Out of the Woods. Do local support services influence the propensity to report sexual violence?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 334-352.
    16. Harouna Sedgo, 2024. "Corruption and leadership in Africa: Evidence from Burkina Faso," EconomiX Working Papers 2024-16, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    17. Dovern, Jonas & Frank, Johannes & Glas, Alexander & Müller, Lena Sophia & Perico Ortiz, Daniel, 2023. "Estimating pass-through rates for the 2022 tax reduction on fuel prices in Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    18. Tianyuan Luo & Genti Kostandini, 2022. "Stringent immigration enforcement and responses of the immigrant‐intensive sector: Evidence from E‐Verify adoption in Arizona," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(4), pages 1411-1434, August.
    19. Masahiro Kato & Akari Ohda & Masaaki Imaizumi, 2023. "Asymptotically Unbiased Synthetic Control Methods by Distribution Matching," Papers 2307.11127, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    20. Campos, Nauro F. & Coricelli, Fabrizio & Franceschi, Emanuele, 2022. "Institutional integration and productivity growth: Evidence from the 1995 enlargement of the European Union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Synthetic control method; School openings; Italy; Coronavirus;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:hepoli:v:125:y:2021:i:9:p:1200-1207. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu or the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/healthpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.