Unsettled horizon: adolescents’ career expectations in the volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous contexts

Navigating the school-to-work transition is essential for students in the volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) environment. Despite the growing importance of understanding these challenges, the differential impact of proximal and distal contexts on adolescents’ career decision-making remains underexplored. This study is grounded in Social Cognitive Career Theory (SCCT), which highlights self-efficacy, outcome expectations, and contextual influences in career decision-making. Using data from the Programme of International Student Assessment 2022, we applied multilevel linear models to examine how VUCA contexts shape adolescents’ career expectation uncertainty across 80 diverse educational systems. Results reveal that (a) the proportion of adolescents uncertain about their career plans nearly doubled after the pandemic and persisted in certain economies; (b) proximal environments (school and individual inputs) explained only 10% of the uncertainty, while distal contexts (economic conditions) accounted for 65%; (c) students with lower self-efficacy and inadequate future preparation were more susceptible to career indecision; (d) higher youth NEET (Not in Employment, Education, or Training) were positively associated with career indecision, especially disadvantaged students; and (e) educational disruptions had minimal impact on career decisions, while girls benefited more from targeted career guidance.