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The Effect of Trade on Agglomeration within Regions

Author

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  • Grace Carolina GUEVARA-ROSERO

    (Departamento de Matemáticas, Facultad de Ciencias, Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Ecuador. University of Lyon, France.)

Abstract

This paper assesses for the first time the effect of regional trade openness on spatial distribution of population within regions by using a database on exports and imports of sub-national regions of Colombia from 1999 to 2010. Studies using such type of data are of significant relevance because the concentration in large cities of regions can be reinforced by trade. The results of our panel model show that the effect of trade on the spatial concentration of population depends upon the characteristics of regions. On the one hand, trade enhances the spatial agglomeration within regions with large home market and location advantages. On the other hand, trade induces dispersion within regions that lack access to international trade or historical disadvantage. These results hold when controlling for the natural course of agglomeration, congestion effects in cities, road infrastructure and historical factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Grace Carolina GUEVARA-ROSERO, 2017. "The Effect of Trade on Agglomeration within Regions," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 75-97, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2017:i:1:p:75-97
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade openness; spatial concentration; congestion; Economic Geography; regional data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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