IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/vy2016i4p95-114.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do Remittances Hurt Domestic Prices? New Evidence from Low, Lower-Middle and Middle–Income Groups

Author

Listed:
  • Adnan KHURSHID

    ()

  • Yin KEDONG

    (Director and Head of Department, Email: dr.yinkedong@gmail.com, College of Economics, Department of Finance, Ocean University of China. Qingdao, China.)

  • Adrian Cantemir CALIN

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Romania)

  • Oana Cristina POPOVICI

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Romania)

Abstract

We examine the remittances-inflation Nexus using System Generalized Method of Moments and bootstrap panel Granger causality approach. This study selected 58 countries from low, lower-middle and middle-income groups and tested the relationship using newly constructed remittances series. The outcome using the SGMM approach reveals that remittances have a negative and significant impact on inflation in low and lower-middle income countries, while positively influencing it in the middle-income group. Furthermore, remittances used for consumption and saving cause inflationary situation only in low and lower-middle income groups. The bootstrap panel Granger test results show that remittances have a strong impact on the prices of the lower-middle income countries. However, we find causality evidence only in one-fifth of the low and one-fourth of the middle-income countries. In general, the results are more country specific. The outcomes have significant policy implications for the researchers and decision-makers targeting the groups under study.

Suggested Citation

  • Adnan KHURSHID & Yin KEDONG & Adrian Cantemir CALIN & Oana Cristina POPOVICI, 2016. "Do Remittances Hurt Domestic Prices? New Evidence from Low, Lower-Middle and Middle–Income Groups," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 95-114, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2016:i:4:p:95-114
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef4_16/rjef4_2016p95-114.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. Ulyses Balderas & Hiranya Nath, 2007. "Inflation and relative price variability in Mexico: the role of remittances," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 181-185.
    2. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    3. Adams, Richard Jr. & Page, John, 2005. "Do international migration and remittances reduce poverty in developing countries?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1645-1669, October.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    5. Stark, Oded & Taylor, J Edward & Yitzhaki, Shlomo, 1986. "Remittances and Inequality," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(383), pages 722-740, September.
    6. Calero, Carla & Bedi, Arjun S. & Sparrow, Robert, 2009. "Remittances, Liquidity Constraints and Human Capital Investments in Ecuador," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1143-1154, June.
    7. Acosta, Pablo A. & Lartey, Emmanuel K.K. & Mandelman, Federico S., 2009. "Remittances and the Dutch disease," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 102-116, September.
    8. Taylor, J. Edward, 1992. "Remittances and inequality reconsidered: Direct, indirect, and intertemporal effects," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 187-208, April.
    9. Christopher P. Ball & Claude Lopez & Javier Reyes, 2013. "Remittances, Inflation and Exchange Rate Regimes in Small Open Economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 487-507, April.
    10. Granger, Clive W. J., 2003. "Some aspects of causal relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 69-71, January.
    11. Bugamelli, Matteo & Paternò, Francesco, 2009. "Do Workers' Remittances Reduce the Probability of Current Account Reversals?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 1821-1838, December.
    12. Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & Susan Pozo, 2006. "Remittance Receipt and Business Ownership in the Dominican Republic," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(7), pages 939-956, July.
    13. Khan, Abdul Aleem & Ahmed, Qazi Masood & Hyder, Kalim, 2007. "Determinants oF Recent Inflation in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 16254, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007.
    14. Mandelman, Federico S., 2013. "Monetary and exchange rate policy under remittance fluctuations," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 128-147.
    15. Kuckulenz, Anja & Buch, Claudia M., 2004. "Worker Remittances and Capital Flows to Developing Countries," ZEW Discussion Papers 04-31, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    16. Mazhar Y. Mughal, 2013. "Remittances As Development Strategy: Stepping Stones Or Slippery Slope?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 583-595, May.
    17. Michael T. Gapen & Ralph Chami & Peter J Montiel & Adolfo Barajas & Connel Fullenkamp, 2009. "Do Workers’ Remittances Promote Economic Growth?," IMF Working Papers 09/153, International Monetary Fund.
    18. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    19. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan & Sagarika Mishra, 2011. "Do Remittances Induce Inflation? Fresh Evidence from Developing Countries," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 914-933, April.
    20. Nazlioglu, Saban & Lebe, Fuat & Kayhan, Selim, 2011. "Nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in OECD countries: Cross-sectionally dependent heterogeneous panel causality analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6615-6621, October.
    21. Ramon A. CASTILLO-PONCE & Maria de Lourdes RODRIGUEZ-ESPINOSA & Erika GARCIA-MENESES, 2011. "The Importance Of Macroeconomic Conditions On Remittances In The Long-Run And In The Short-Run: The Case Of Mexico," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 11(1).
    22. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    23. repec:hrv:faseco:34721963 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:rjr:romjef:v::y:2018:i:1:p:20-41 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:rej:journl:v:20:y:2017:i:63:p:29-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:vls:finstu:v:21:y:2017:i:4:p:6-26 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    remittances; inflation; panel bootstrap Granger test; income groups; foreign exchange;

    JEL classification:

    • F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2016:i:4:p:95-114. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Corina Saman). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.