Assessing inequality in access to higher education in Russia: Determinants of enrollment and student migration

This study examines the determinants of inequality in access to higher education in Russia, focusing on both university enrollment and interregional educational migration. Using microdata from the longitudinal survey “Trajectories in Education and Careers” (TrEC), we apply a censored bivariate probit model that jointly estimates these decisions while accounting for sample selection. The results indicate that family socioeconomic status and educational resources play a decisive role in shaping enrollment outcomes. In particular, investments in supplementary preparation, parental education, and school characteristics significantly increase the probability of admission. Additionally, peer effects, reflected in the classmates’ and friends’ educational aspirations, contribute to the formation of educational trajectories. In contrast, educational migration is primarily driven by regional factors, including differences in labor market conditions, tuition costs, and the spatial distribution of higher education institutions. The findings also reveal no significant correlation between unobserved factors affecting enrollment and migration, suggesting that these processes are of a different nature. Overall, the study highlights the need for differentiated policy measures aimed at both reducing socioeconomic inequality and addressing regional disparities in access to higher education.