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Évolution à long terme de la convergence régionale au Canada

Listed author(s):
  • Coulombe, Serge

    (Département de science économique, Université d’Ottawa)

  • Lee, Frank C.

    (Industrie Canada)

The objective of this paper is to analyse the evolution of regional disparities in income/output per capita in Canada over a long time interval in light of the recent studies on convergence. We analyse regional convergence in Canada by estimating β-convergence and testing stationarity of σ-convergence over the 1926-1994 interval. Our analysis shows that, on average, convergence has been observed across the Canadian provinces since 1926 but the catch up process of poor regions to rich ones is not a smooth transitional dynamic process altered only temporarily by white noise random shocks. There is no evidence of σ-convergence for the nine provinces prior to the entry of Newfoundland into Confederation in 1949 and, furthermore, most of the σ-convergence detected appears to have occurred in the 1950 to 1977 period. Cette étude a pour objet d’analyser l’évolution à long terme des disparités régionales au Canada sur le plan du revenu et de la production par habitant à la lumière d’études récentes sur la convergence. Nous analysons la convergence régionale au Canada à partir d’estimations de la convergence β et de tests de stationnarité de la convergence σ pendant la période allant de 1926 à 1994. Notre analyse indique qu’en moyenne, une convergence entre les provinces canadiennes s’est produite depuis 1926; toutefois, le processus de rattrapage des régions pauvres par rapport aux régions riches n’a pas suivi un sentier régulier — il fut ralenti de façon sporadique par des chocs aléatoires. Il n’existe pas de preuve empirique d’une convergence σ entre les neuf provinces avant l’entrée de Terre-Neuve dans la Confédération en 1949; de plus, une bonne partie de la convergence σ observée semble s’être produite entre 1950 et 1977.

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Article provided by Société Canadienne de Science Economique in its journal L'Actualité économique.

Volume (Year): 74 (1998)
Issue (Month): 1 (mars)
Pages: 5-27

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Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:74:y:1998:i:1:p:5-27
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  1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
  2. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X, 1996. "The Classical Approach to Convergence Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 1019-1036, July.
  3. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1988. "Variable Trends in Economic Time Series," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 147-174, Summer.
  4. Kevin H. O'Rourke & Jeffrey G. Williamson & T. J. Hatton, 1993. "Mass migration, commodity market integration and real wage convergence : the late nineteenth century Atlantic economy," Working Papers 199325, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
  5. Amos, Orley Jr., 1988. "Unbalanced regional growth and regional income inequality in the latter stages of development," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 549-566, November.
  6. Marvin McInnis, 1968. "The Trend of Regional Income Differentials in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 1(2), pages 440-470, May.
  7. Danny Quah, 1995. "Empirics for Economic Growth and Convergence," CEP Discussion Papers dp0253, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  8. Bernard, Andrew B. & Durlauf, Steven N., 1996. "Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 161-173.
  9. Robert M. Solow, 1994. "Perspectives on Growth Theory," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 45-54, Winter.
  10. Coulombe, S. & Lee, F.C., 1993. "Regional Economic Disparities in Canada," Working Papers 9317e, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
  11. Lee, F.C. & Coulombe, S., 1993. "Regional Productivity Convergence in Canada," Working Papers 9318e, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
  12. Quah, Danny, 1995. "Empirics for Economic Growth and Convergence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1140, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
  14. Quah, Danny, 1993. " Galton's Fallacy and Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95(4), pages 427-443, December.
  15. Friedman, Milton, 1992. "Do Old Fallacies Ever Die?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 2129-2132, December.
  16. Carlino, Gerald A. & Mills, Leonard O., 1993. "Are U.S. regional incomes converging? : A time series analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 335-346, November.
  17. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-251, April.
  18. Paul M. Romer, 1994. "The Origins of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 3-22, Winter.
  19. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
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