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The PC Industry: New Economy or Early Life-Cycle?

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  • Mariana Mazzucato

    (The Open University)

Abstract

The paper studies the co-evolution of industrial turbulence and financial volatility in the early phase of the life-cycle of an old high-tech industry and a new high-tech industry: the U.S. auto industry from 1899-1929 and the U.S. PC industry from 1974-2000. In both industries, the first three decades were characterized by industrial turbulence: radical technological change, high entry and exit rates, and rapidly falling prices. However, unlike in the auto industry, in the PC industry technological change and new entry did not lead to strong instability of market shares-at the core of the monopoly-destroying effect of Schumpeterian creative destruction-until the 1990s, when the lead of the incumbents from the pre-existing mainframe and minicomputer industries was undermined. In both industries, stock prices were the most volatile and idiosyncratic during those years in which technological change disrupted market shares the most (Autos: 1918-1928; PCs: 1990-2000).

Suggested Citation

  • Mariana Mazzucato, 2002. "The PC Industry: New Economy or Early Life-Cycle?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(2), pages 318-345, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:v:5:y:2002:i:2:p:318-345
    DOI: 10.1006/redy.2002.0164
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    2. ARATA Yoshiyuki & ONOZAKI Tamotsu, 2017. "A Compositional Data Analysis of Market Share Dynamics," Discussion papers 17076, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Dosi, Giovanni & Nelson, Richard R., 2010. "Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 51-127, Elsevier.
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    5. Mariana Mazzucato & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2005. "Innovation and Idiosyncratic Risk," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 81, Society for Computational Economics.
    6. Robert Crandall & Charles Jackson, 2011. "Antitrust in High-Tech Industries," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 38(4), pages 319-362, June.
    7. Emin M. Dinlersoz & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo, 2004. "The diffusion of electronic business in the U.S," Working Papers 2004-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    8. BokHyun Lee, 2018. "The Relationship between Technology Life Cycle and Korean Stock Market Performance," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-22, October.
    9. Luboš Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2009. "Technological Revolutions and Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1451-1483, September.
    10. Nilabhra Bhattacharya & Elizabeth Demers & Philip Joos, 2010. "The Relevance of Accounting Information in a Stock Market Bubble: Evidence from Internet IPOs," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3-4), pages 291-321.
    11. Bernard Ben Sita, 2013. "Volatility links between US industries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(15), pages 1273-1286, August.
    12. Ciarli, Tommaso & Savona, Maria, 2019. "Modelling the Evolution of Economic Structure and Climate Change: A Review," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 51-64.
    13. Gregor Semieniuk & Emanuele Campiglio & Jean‐Francois Mercure & Ulrich Volz & Neil R. Edwards, 2021. "Low‐carbon transition risks for finance," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), January.
    14. Boyan Jovanovic, 2004. "The Pre-Producers," NBER Working Papers 10771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Abeer Pervaiz & Christian Lechner, 2019. "Understanding the emergence of an industry through the lens of Social Movements and Entrepreneurial Communities," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS58, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    16. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2006. "The relation between time-series and cross-sectional effects of idiosyncratic variance on stock returns in G7 countries," Working Papers 2006-036, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    17. Nilabhra Bhattacharya & Elizabeth Demers & Philip Joos, 2010. "The Relevance of Accounting Information in a Stock Market Bubble: Evidence from Internet IPOs," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3‐4), pages 291-321, April.
    18. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2006. "Aggregate idiosyncratic volatility in G7 countries," Working Papers 2004-027, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    19. Walid Y. Busaba & Yun Li & Guorong Yang, 2015. "Market Volatility and IPO Filing Activity," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(04), pages 1-46, December.
    20. Mariana Mazzucato & Stuart Parris, 2015. "High-growth firms in changing competitive environments: the US pharmaceutical industry (1963 to 2002)," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 145-170, January.
    21. Kathryn Rudie Harrigan & Maria Chiara Guardo & Elona Marku, 2018. "Patent value and the Tobin’s q ratio in media services," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 1-19, February.
    22. Hyunseog Chung & Soomin Eum & Chulung Lee, 2019. "Firm Growth and R&D in the Korean Pharmaceutical Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, May.
    23. Jackie Krafft & Jacques-Laurent Ravix, 2005. "The governance of innovative firms: an evolutionary approach," Post-Print hal-00203620, HAL.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    industry life-cycle; new economy; technological change; risk; stock price volatility.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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