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The Market Evolution and Sales Takeoff of Product Innovations

  • Rajshree Agarwal

    ()

    (Department of Business Administration, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 350 Wohlers Hall, 1206 S. Sixth Street, Champaign, Illinois 61822)

  • Barry L. Bayus

    ()

    (Kenan-Flagler Business School, University of North Carolina, CB 3490, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599)

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    In contrast to the prevailing supply-side explanation that price decreases are the key driver of a sales takeoff, we argue that outward shifting supply and demand curves lead to market takeoff. Our fundamental idea is that sales in new markets are initially low because the first commercialized forms of new innovations are primitive. Then, as new firms enter, actual and perceived product quality improves (and prices possibly drop), which leads to a takeoff in sales. To provide empirical evidence for this explanation, we explore the relationship between takeoff times, price decreases, and firm entry for a sample of consumer and industrial product innovations commercialized in the United States over the past 150 years. Based on a proportional hazards analysis of takeoff times, we find that new firm entry dominates other factors in explaining observed sales takeoff times. We interpret these results as supporting the idea that demand shifts during the early evolution of a new market due to nonprice factors is the key driver of a sales takeoff.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.48.8.1024.167
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    Article provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.

    Volume (Year): 48 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 8 (August)
    Pages: 1024-1041

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    Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:48:y:2002:i:8:p:1024-1041
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    1. Boyan Jovanovic & Glenn MacDonald, 1993. "The Life-Cycle of a Competitive Industry," NBER Working Papers 4441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Bass, Frank M, 1980. "The Relationship between Diffusion Rates, Experience Curves, and Demand Elasticities for Consumer Durable Technological Innovations," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(3), pages S51-67, July.
    3. Nina Shapiro, 1986. "Innovation, New Industries and New Firms," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 27-43, Jan-Mar.
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    5. Klepper, Steven, 1996. "Entry, Exit, Growth, and Innovation over the Product Life Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 562-83, June.
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    7. Agarwal, Rajshree & Bayus, Barry L., 2002. "The Market Evolution and Sales Take-Off of Product Innovations," Working Papers 02-0104, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, College of Business.
    8. Gort, Michael & Klepper, Steven, 1982. "Time Paths in the Diffusion of Product Innovations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(367), pages 630-53, September.
    9. repec:fth:harver:1473 is not listed on IDEAS
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    11. Zvi Griliches, 1998. "Patent Statistics as Economic Indicators: A Survey," NBER Chapters, in: R&D and Productivity: The Econometric Evidence, pages 287-343 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    15. Ron Adner & Daniel Levinthal, 2001. "Demand Heterogeneity and Technology Evolution: Implications for Product and Process Innovation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(5), pages 611-628, May.
    16. Agarwal, Rajshree & Gort, Michael, 1996. "The Evolution of Markets and Entry, Exit and Survival of Firms," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(3), pages 489-98, August.
    17. Geroski, P. A., 1995. "What do we know about entry?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 421-440, December.
    18. Agarwal, Rajshree, 1998. "Evolutionary trends of industry variables," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 511-525, July.
    19. Steven Klepper & Kenneth L. Simons, 2000. "The Making of an Oligopoly: Firm Survival and Technological Change in the Evolution of the U.S. Tire Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(4), pages 728-760, August.
    20. Christensen, Clayton M., 1993. "The Rigid Disk Drive Industry: A History of Commercial and Technological Turbulence," Business History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 67(04), pages 531-588, December.
    21. Peter N. Golder & Gerard J. Tellis, 1997. "Will It Every Fly? Modeling the Takeoff of Really New Consumer Durables," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 16(3), pages 256-270.
    22. Gort, Michael & Konakayama, Akira, 1982. "A Model of Diffusion in the Production of an Innovation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(5), pages 1111-20, December.
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