Shakeout in industrial dynamics: new developments, new puzzles
The purpose of this paper is to stress these different visions of shakeout in industrial dynamics, to characterize the new developments that support these alternative visions, and to clarify the puzzles that these visions may present for industry life cycle analyses. The first section provides a synthesis of the basic framework on industry life cycle proposed by Gort and Klepper in the 1980s. The remainder of the paper investigates more recent developments on shakeout, which is considered a central question in the 1990s and 2000s. The second section focuses on a conception of shakeout which is closely linked to technological conditions. The obsolescence of an old technology and the dominance of a new one involves that a new industry replaces the old one. Firms in the old industry have to face a shakeout, and these firms are generally not the main actors of the new industry. The third section focuses on an alternative conception of shakeout which is closely connected to knowledge accumulation and diffusion. A new industry never starts from scratch, as industries generally arise through a transformation of existing industries. When a shakeout occurs, firms that organized the conditions of knowledge accumulation and diffusion may survive, and eventually become the leaders of the newly-born industry. The fourth section makes some concluding remarks.
|Date of creation:||2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published, Applied Evolutionary Economics, Edward Elgar (Ed.), 2004, 181-196|
|Note:||View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00211802/en/|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Clark, Kim B., 1985. "The interaction of design hierarchies and market concepts in technological evolution," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 235-251, October.
- Gambardella, Alfonso & Torrisi, Salvatore, 1998. "Does technological convergence imply convergence in markets? Evidence from the electronics industry," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 445-463, September.
- Mueller, Dennis C., 1997. "First-mover advantages and path dependence," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 827-850, October.
- Klepper, Steven & Miller, John H., 1995. "Entry, exit, and shakeouts in the United States in new manufactured products," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 567-591, December.
- Bonaccorsi, Andrea & Giuri, Paola, 2001.
"The long-term evolution of vertically-related industries,"
International Journal of Industrial Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1053-1083, July.
- Andrea Bonaccorsi & Paola Giuri, 2000. "The long term evolution of vertically-related industries," LEM Papers Series 2000/01, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
- Malerba, Franco & Orsenigo, Luigi, 1996. "The Dynamics and Evolution of Industries," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 51-87.
- Klepper, Steven & Simons, Kenneth L, 1997. "Technological Extinctions of Industrial Firms: An Inquiry into Their Nature and Causes," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 379-460, March.
- Agarwal, Rajshree, 1998. "Evolutionary trends of industry variables," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 511-525, July.
- Dijk Machiel van, 1998. "Industry Life Cycles in Dutch Manufacturing," Research Memorandum 010, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
- Jovanovic, B. & MacDonald, G., 1993.
"The Life Cycle of a Competitive Industry,"
93-34, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Jovanovic, B. & MacDonald, G.M., 1992. "The Life-Cycle of Competitive Industry," Papers 92-09, Rochester, Business - Financial Research and Policy Studies.
- Boyan Jovanovic & Glenn MacDonald, 1993. "The Life-Cycle of a Competitive Industry," NBER Working Papers 4441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Henderson, Rebecca., 1994.
"Of life cycles real and imaginary : the unexpectedly long old age of optical lithography,"
WP 3661-94., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Henderson, Rebecca, 1995. "Of life cycles real and imaginary: The unexpectedly long old age of optical lithography," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 631-643, July.
- Malerba, Franco, et al, 1999. "'History-Friendly' Models of Industry Evolution: The Computer Industry," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 3-40, March.
- Abernathy, William J. & Clark, Kim B., 1985. "Innovation: Mapping the winds of creative destruction," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-22, February.
- Utterback, James M. & Suarez, Fernando F., 1993. "Innovation, competition, and industry structure," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-21, February.
- Klepper, Steven, 1997. "Industry Life Cycles," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 145-81.
- Jackie Krafft, 2002. "Industrial dynamics," Post-Print hal-00212272, HAL.
- Geroski, P. A., 1995. "What do we know about entry?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 421-440, December.
- Agarwal, Rajshree & Gort, Michael, 1996. "The Evolution of Markets and Entry, Exit and Survival of Firms," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(3), pages 489-98, August.
- Saviotti, Pier Paolo, 1998. "On the dynamics of appropriability, of tacit and of codified knowledge," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(7-8), pages 843-856, April.
- Klepper, Steven & Simons, Kenneth L., 2005. "Industry shakeouts and technological change," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 23(1-2), pages 23-43, February.
- Gort, Michael & Klepper, Steven, 1982. "Time Paths in the Diffusion of Product Innovations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(367), pages 630-53, September.
- Martin Fransman & Jackie Krafft, 2002. "Telecommunications," Post-Print hal-00212269, HAL.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00211802. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.