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The Pre-Producers

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  • Boyan Jovanovic

Abstract

Until its sales of a product materialize, a firm is a "pre-producer" in the market for that product. That firm may may be a new start-up, or it may already sell other products. Firms that do not succeed in generating sales eventually become discouraged and move on to other activities. When this fate befalls a lot of firms, as it recently did in several IT-related businesses, the industry experiences a "shakeout." In the model that I will present, during the shakeout some firms switch to flatter, safer earnings. This switch raises earnings at the time of the shakeout but lowers them in the long run, and it therefore raises earnings-price ratios. This has happened on the Nasdaq since March, 2000 when the Nasdaq shakeout began.

Suggested Citation

  • Boyan Jovanovic, 2004. "The Pre-Producers," NBER Working Papers 10771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10771
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jovanovic, Boyan & Rosenthal, Robert W., 1988. "Anonymous sequential games," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 77-87, February.
    2. Pastor, Lubos & Veronesi, Pietro, 2006. "Was there a Nasdaq bubble in the late 1990s?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 61-100, July.
    3. Boyan Jovanovic & Peter L. Rousseau, 2001. "Why Wait? A Century of Life before IPO," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 336-341, May.
    4. Evans, David S, 1987. "Tests of Alternative Theories of Firm Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(4), pages 657-674, August.
    5. Steven N. Kaplan & Per Strömberg, 2003. "Financial Contracting Theory Meets the Real World: An Empirical Analysis of Venture Capital Contracts," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(2), pages 281-315.
    6. Jovanovic, Boyan & MacDonald, Glenn M, 1994. "The Life Cycle of a Competitive Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(2), pages 322-347, April.
    7. Lubos Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2005. "Rational IPO Waves," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1713-1757, August.
    8. Michael Gort, 1962. "Diversification and Integration in American Industry," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gort62-1.
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    10. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-670, May.
    11. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877, January.
    12. Mariana Mazzucato, 2002. "The PC Industry: New Economy or Early Life-Cycle?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(2), pages 318-345, April.
    13. David Dranove & David Meltzer, 1994. "Do Important Drugs Reach the Market Sooner?," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(3), pages 402-423, Autumn.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chung-Yi Tse, 2008. "Diffusion with variable production lead times," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 93(2), pages 177-202, March.
    2. Zhu Wang, 2007. "Technological Innovation and Market Turbulence: The Dot-com Experience," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(1), pages 78-105, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L0 - Industrial Organization - - General
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

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