IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/compes/v59y2017i3d10.1057_s41294-017-0030-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Tariff-Induced (De)industrialization: An Empirical Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Marjan Petreski

    (University American College Skopje)

  • Branimir Jovanovic

    (University of Turin)

  • Igor Velickovski

    (National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia)

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate if tariffs affected manufacturing value added in 25 countries from Central and Southeast Europe, the Commonwealth of Independent States, and the Middle East and North Africa over the period 1990–2010. We identify and test three channels through which tariffs may affect industry value added. We use various fixed effects and an instrumental variable approach to address tariffs’ endogeneity with respect to value added. The results suggest that, in general, lower tariffs seem to lead to higher value added, mainly through the higher imports of inputs in the production process, which were either non-existent or more expensive on the domestic market previously. However, there are notable differences in the effects between different groups of countries and industries: tariffs are not found to affect industrialization in Southeast Europe and the Middle East and North Africa, which implies that their decision to liberalize trade was likely premature. This is supported by the finding that lower tariffs have positive effects on industry value added only in more mature industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Marjan Petreski & Branimir Jovanovic & Igor Velickovski, 2017. "Tariff-Induced (De)industrialization: An Empirical Analysis," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 59(3), pages 345-381, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:compes:v:59:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1057_s41294-017-0030-8
    DOI: 10.1057/s41294-017-0030-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41294-017-0030-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s41294-017-0030-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gamberoni, Elisa & Lanz, Rainer & Piermartini, Roberta, 2010. "Timeliness and contract enforceability in intermediate goods trade," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5482, The World Bank.
    2. Brock, William A & Magee, Stephen P, 1978. "The Economics of Special Interest Politics: The Case of the Tariff," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 246-250, May.
    3. Da Rin, Marco & Hellmann, Thomas, 2002. "Banks as Catalysts for Industrialization," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 366-397, October.
    4. Mr. Stephen Tokarick, 2006. "Does Import Protection Discourage Exports?," IMF Working Papers 2006/020, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
    6. Tybout, James & de Melo, Jamie & Corbo, Vittorio, 1991. "The effects of trade reforms on scale and technical efficiency : New evidence from Chile," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3-4), pages 231-250, November.
    7. Tybout, James R. & Westbrook, M. Daniel, 1995. "Trade liberalization and the dimensions of efficiency change in Mexican manufacturing industries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 53-78, August.
    8. Mary Amiti & Jozef Konings, 2007. "Trade Liberalization, Intermediate Inputs, and Productivity: Evidence from Indonesia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1611-1638, December.
    9. Harrison, Ann E., 1994. "Productivity, imperfect competition and trade reform : Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 53-73, February.
    10. Shafaeddin, Mehdi, 2010. "Trade liberalization, industrialization and development; experience of recent decades," MPRA Paper 26355, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Michele Di Maio, 2008. "Industrial Policies in Developing Countries: History and Perspectives," Working Papers 48-2008, Macerata University, Department of Finance and Economic Sciences, revised Oct 2008.
    12. Rajan, Raghuram G. & Subramanian, Arvind, 2011. "Aid, Dutch disease, and manufacturing growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 106-118, January.
    13. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
    14. Anne O. Krueger, 1978. "Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Liberalization Attempts and Consequences," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number krue78-1.
    15. Eva Paus & Nola Reinhardt & Michael Robinson, 2003. "Trade Liberalization and Productivity Growth in Latin American Manufacturing, 1970-98," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 1-15.
    16. Jeroen Hinloopen & Charles van Marrewijk, 2008. "Empirical relevance of the Hillman condition for revealed comparative advantage: 10 stylized facts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(18), pages 2313-2328.
    17. Romain Wacziarg & Karen Horn Welch, 2008. "Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 22(2), pages 187-231, June.
    18. Handoussa, Heba & Nishimizu, Mieko & Page, John Jr., 1986. "Productivity change in Egyptian public sector industries after the opening, 1973-1979," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 53-73.
    19. Francisco Rodríguez & Dani Rodrik, 2001. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 261-338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Aichele, Rahel & Heiland, Inga, 2014. "Where is the value added? China's WTO entry, trade and value chains," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100424, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    21. Sachs, Jeffrey D & Warner, Andrew M, 1997. "Fundamental Sources of Long-Run Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 184-188, May.
    22. Jing Jun Chang & Been-Lon Chen & Mei Hsu, 2006. "Agricultural Productivity and Economic Growth: Role of Tax Revenues and Infrastructures," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 72(4), pages 891-914, April.
    23. Krueger, Anne O, 1980. "Trade Policy as an Input to Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 288-292, May.
    24. Alan Deardorff & Jee-Hyeong Park, 2010. "A Story of Trade-induced Industrialization," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 283-296.
    25. Levine, Ross, 2005. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 865-934, Elsevier.
    26. Valerie R. Bencivenga & Bruce D. Smith, 1991. "Financial Intermediation and Endogenous Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 195-209.
    27. Richard Baldwin & Javier Lopez-Gonzalez, 2015. "Supply-chain Trade: A Portrait of Global Patterns and Several Testable Hypotheses," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(11), pages 1682-1721, November.
    28. Acemoglu, Daron & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1997. "Was Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk, Diversification, and Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 709-751, August.
    29. Beshkar, Mostafa & Bond, Eric W. & Rho, Youngwoo, 2015. "Tariff binding and overhang: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 1-13.
    30. Molly Lesher & Sébastien Miroudot, 2008. "FDI Spillovers and their Interrelationships with Trade," OECD Trade Policy Papers 80, OECD Publishing.
    31. Baldwin, Richard, 2011. "21st century regionalism: Filling the gap between 21st century trade and 20th century trade rules," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2011-08, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    32. Mayer, Wolfgang, 1984. "Endogenous Tariff Formation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 970-985, December.
    33. Richard Baldwin, 2011. "Trade And Industrialisation After Globalisation's 2nd Unbundling: How Building And Joining A Supply Chain Are Different And Why It Matters," NBER Working Papers 17716, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Torfinn Harding & Jørn Rattsø, 2010. "Industrial labour productivities and tariffs in South Africa," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 18(3), pages 459-485, July.
    35. Jagdish N. Bhagwati, 1978. "Anatomy of Exchange Control Regimes," NBER Chapters, in: Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Anatomy and Consequences of Exchange Control Regimes, pages 7-52, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. David Roodman, 2011. "Fitting fully observed recursive mixed-process models with cmp," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 11(2), pages 159-206, June.
    37. Bhagwati, Jagdish N, 1988. "Export-Promoting Trade Strategy: Issues and Evidence," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 3(1), pages 27-57, January.
    38. Ann Harrison & Ana Revenga, 1995. "The Effects of Trade Policy Reform: What Do We Really Know?," NBER Working Papers 5225, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. Ronald Findlay & Stanislaw Wellisz, 1982. "Endogenous Tariffs, the Political Economy of Trade Restrictions, and Welfare," NBER Chapters, in: Import Competition and Response, pages 223-244, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Jagdish N. Bhagwati, 1978. "Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Anatomy and Consequences of Exchange Control Regimes," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bhag78-1.
    41. Maurizio Zanardi & Alberto Paloni, 2007. "The IMF, World Bank and policy reform," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/9823, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    42. Arye Hillman, 1980. "Observations on the relation between “revealed comparative advantage” and comparative advantage as indicated by pre-trade relative prices," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 116(2), pages 315-321, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pawel Dobrzanski & Wojciech Grabowski, 2019. "Structural and productivity changes of Central and Eastern Europe," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 37(2), pages 427-471.
    2. Mateo Hoyos López, 2017. "Trade liberalization and premature deindustrialization in Colombia," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 6(1), pages 1-30, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Branimir Jovanović & Marjan Petreski & Igor Velickovski, 2015. "Tariff-induced (de)industrialization in transition economies: A comparative analysis," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 116, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    2. Tarlok Singh, 2010. "Does International Trade Cause Economic Growth? A Survey," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(11), pages 1517-1564, November.
    3. Shafaeddin, Mehdi, 2010. "Trade liberalization, industrialization and development; experience of recent decades," MPRA Paper 26355, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Gabriel Sánchez, 1998. "Lobbying, innovation and protectionist cycles," Economics Working Papers 272, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    5. Diaz-Bautista, Alejandro, 2002. "The role of telecommunications infrastructure and human capital: Mexico´s economic growth and convergence," ERSA conference papers ersa02p102, European Regional Science Association.
    6. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Atif Ali Jaffri & Faisal Abbas & Azad Haider, 2017. "Does Trade Liberalization Improve Trade Balance in Pakistan?," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 18(2), pages 158-183, September.
    7. Patricia Augier & Michael Gasiorek & Gonzalo Varela, 2007. "Determinants of Productivity in Morocco - The Role of Trade?," CARIS Working Papers 02, Centre for the Analysis of Regional Integration at Sussex, University of Sussex.
    8. Prema-chandra Athukorala & Kunal Sen, 2015. "Industrialisation, Employment and Poverty," Departmental Working Papers 2015-11, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    9. Sudip Ranjan Basu, 2005. "Correlating Growth with Well-Being during Economic Reforms Evidence from India and China," Development and Comp Systems 0509010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Saon Ray, 2014. "What Explains the Productivity Decline in Manufacturing in the Nineties in India?," Working Papers id:6280, eSocialSciences.
    11. A. U. Santos-Paulino, 2002. "Trade Liberalisation and Export Performance in Selected Developing Countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 140-164.
    12. Francois, Joseph & Manchin, Miriam, 2013. "Institutions, Infrastructure, and Trade," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 165-175.
    13. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    14. Daniel Trefler, 2004. "The Long and Short of the Canada-U. S. Free Trade Agreement," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 870-895, September.
    15. R. Rijesh, 2019. "International Trade and Productivity Growth in Indian Industry: Evidence from the Organized Manufacturing Sector," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 14(1), pages 1-39, April.
    16. Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2012. "Does trade openness affect long run growth? Cointegration, causality and forecast error variance decomposition tests for Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2325-2339.
    17. Berhanu Abegaz & Arnab K. Basu, 2011. "The Elusive Productivity Effect of Trade Liberalization in the Manufacturing Industries of Emerging Economies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 5-27, January.
    18. Armah Bartholomew, 2000. "Does Latin America Have More to Gain From Exchange Rate Liberalization than Sub-Saharan Africa?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 113-132.
    19. Douglas A. Irwin, 2019. "Does Trade Reform Promote Economic Growth? A Review of Recent Evidence," Working Paper Series WP19-9, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    20. Ann Harrison & Ana Revenga, 1995. "The Effects of Trade Policy Reform: What Do We Really Know?," NBER Working Papers 5225, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    industrialization; trade liberalization; tariffs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:compes:v:59:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1057_s41294-017-0030-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.