IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/rfinst/v35y2022i2p720-770..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Selection, Leverage, and Default in the Mortgage Market

Author

Listed:
  • Arpit Gupta
  • Christopher Hansman

Abstract

We ask whether the correlation between mortgage leverage and default is due to moral hazard (the causal effect of leverage) or adverse selection (ex ante risky borrowers choosing larger loans). We separate these information asymmetries using a natural experiment resulting from the contract structure of option adjustable-rate mortgages and unexpected 2008 divergence of indexes that determine rate adjustments. Our point estimates suggest that moral hazard is responsible for 40 of the correlation in our sample, while adverse selection explains 60. We calibrate a simple model to show that leverage regulation must weigh default prevention against distortions due to adverse selection.

Suggested Citation

  • Arpit Gupta & Christopher Hansman, 2022. "Selection, Leverage, and Default in the Mortgage Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(2), pages 720-770.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:35:y:2022:i:2:p:720-770.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhab052
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liran Einav & Amy Finkelstein & Stephen P. Ryan & Paul Schrimpf & Mark R. Cullen, 2013. "Selection on Moral Hazard in Health Insurance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(1), pages 178-219, February.
    2. William Adams & Liran Einav & Jonathan Levin, 2009. "Liquidity Constraints and Imperfect Information in Subprime Lending," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 49-84, March.
    3. Eduardo M. Azevedo & Daniel Gottlieb, 2017. "Perfect Competition in Markets With Adverse Selection," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 67-105, January.
    4. Richard W. Blundell & James L. Powell, 2004. "Endogeneity in Semiparametric Binary Response Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 71(3), pages 655-679.
    5. Liran Einav & Amy Finkelstein & Paul Schrimpf, 2010. "Optimal Mandates and the Welfare Cost of Asymmetric Information: Evidence From the U.K. Annuity Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(3), pages 1031-1092, May.
    6. John Y. Campbell & João F. Cocco, 2015. "A Model of Mortgage Default," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(4), pages 1495-1554, August.
    7. Liran Einav & Amy Finkelstein & Mark R. Cullen, 2010. "Estimating Welfare in Insurance Markets Using Variation in Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(3), pages 877-921.
    8. Wei Jiang & Ashlyn Aiko Nelson & Edward Vytlacil, 2014. "Liar's Loan? Effects of Origination Channel and Information Falsification on Mortgage Delinquency," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(1), pages 1-18, March.
    9. Bucks, Brian & Pence, Karen, 2008. "Do borrowers know their mortgage terms?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 218-233, September.
    10. Liran Einav & Mark Jenkins & Jonathan Levin, 2012. "Contract Pricing in Consumer Credit Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(4), pages 1387-1432, July.
    11. Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Laeven, Luc, 2017. "The use and effectiveness of macroprudential policies: New evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 203-224.
    12. John Geanakoplos, 2009. "The Leverage Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1715R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jan 2010.
    13. Anton Korinek & Alp Simsek, 2016. "Liquidity Trap and Excessive Leverage," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(3), pages 699-738, March.
    14. Cardon, James H & Hendel, Igal, 2001. "Asymmetric Information in Health Insurance: Evidence from the National Medical Expenditure Survey," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 32(3), pages 408-427, Autumn.
    15. Arpit Gupta, 2019. "Foreclosure Contagion and the Neighborhood Spillover Effects of Mortgage Defaults," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(5), pages 2249-2301, October.
    16. Dean Karlan & Jonathan Zinman, 2009. "Observing Unobservables: Identifying Information Asymmetries With a Consumer Credit Field Experiment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(6), pages 1993-2008, November.
    17. Foote, Christopher L. & Gerardi, Kristopher & Willen, Paul S., 2008. "Negative equity and foreclosure: Theory and evidence," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 234-245, September.
    18. Sumit Agarwal & Brent W. Ambrose & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Chunlin Liu, 2011. "The Role of Soft Information in a Dynamic Contract Setting: Evidence from the Home Equity Credit Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(4), pages 633-655, June.
    19. John Y. Campbell & Nuno Clara & João F. Cocco, 2021. "Structuring Mortgages for Macroeconomic Stability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(5), pages 2525-2576, October.
    20. Brueckner, Jan K, 2000. "Mortgage Default with Asymmetric Information," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 251-274, May.
    21. Nathaniel Hendren, 2013. "Private Information and Insurance Rejections," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(5), pages 1713-1762, September.
    22. Patrick Bajari & Chenghuan Sean Chu & Minjung Park, 2008. "An Empirical Model of Subprime Mortgage Default From 2000 to 2007," NBER Working Papers 14625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Sumit Agarwal & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Chunlin Liu, 2010. "The Importance of Adverse Selection in the Credit Card Market: Evidence from Randomized Trials of Credit Card Solicitations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(4), pages 743-754, June.
    24. Amy Finkelstein & Kathleen McGarry, 2006. "Multiple Dimensions of Private Information: Evidence from the Long-Term Care Insurance Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 938-958, September.
    25. Dean Corbae & Erwan Quintin, 2015. "Leverage and the Foreclosure Crisis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 123(1), pages 1-65.
    26. Andrew Hertzberg & Andres Liberman & Daniel Paravisini, 2018. "Screening on Loan Terms: Evidence from Maturity Choice in Consumer Credit," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(9), pages 3532-3567.
    27. Amy Finkelstein & James Poterba, 2004. "Adverse Selection in Insurance Markets: Policyholder Evidence from the U.K. Annuity Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(1), pages 183-208, February.
    28. Anthony A Defusco & Stephanie Johnson & John Mondragon, 2020. "Regulating Household Leverage," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(2), pages 914-958.
    29. Pierre-Andre Chiappori & Bernard Salanie, 2000. "Testing for Asymmetric Information in Insurance Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(1), pages 56-78, February.
    30. Pedro Gete & Michael Reher, 2016. "Two Extensive Margins of Credit and Loan‐to‐Value Policies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(7), pages 1397-1438, October.
    31. Michael Rothschild & Joseph Stiglitz, 1976. "Equilibrium in Competitive Insurance Markets: An Essay on the Economics of Imperfect Information," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 90(4), pages 629-649.
    32. Tomasz Piskorski & Alexei Tchistyi, 2010. "Optimal Mortgage Design," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(8), pages 3098-3140, August.
    33. Neil Bhutta & Jane K. Dokko & Hui Shan, 2010. "The depth of negative equity and mortgage default decisions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    34. Peter Ganong & Pascal Noel, 2020. "Liquidity versus Wealth in Household Debt Obligations: Evidence from Housing Policy in the Great Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3100-3138, October.
    35. Mian, Atif & Sufi, Amir, 2015. "House of Debt," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226271651, January.
    36. Sumit Agarwal & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Chunlin Liu, 2010. "The Importance of Adverse Selection in the Credit Card Market: Evidence from Randomized Trials of Credit Card Solicitations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(4), pages 743-754, June.
    37. Will Dobbie & Paige Marta Skiba, 2013. "Information Asymmetries in Consumer Credit Markets: Evidence from Payday Lending," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 256-282, October.
    38. John Geanakoplos, 2010. "The Leverage Cycle," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 1-65, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. Bester, Helmut, 1985. "Screening vs. Rationing in Credit Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 850-855, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Billio, Monica & Dufour, Alfonso & Segato, Samuele & Varotto, Simone, 2023. "Complexity and the default risk of mortgage-backed securities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Raj Chetty & Amy Finkelstein, 2012. "Social Insurance: Connecting Theory to Data," NBER Working Papers 18433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Andrea Attar & Thomas Mariotti & François Salanié, 2022. "Regulating Insurance Markets: Multiple Contracting And Adverse Selection," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 981-1020, August.
    3. DeFusco, Anthony A. & Tang, Huan & Yannelis, Constantine, 2022. "Measuring the welfare cost of asymmetric information in consumer credit markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 821-840.
    4. Liran Einav & Amy Finkelstein & Jonathan Levin, 2010. "Beyond Testing: Empirical Models of Insurance Markets," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 311-336, September.
    5. Andrea Attar & Thomas Mariotti & François Salanié, 2021. "Entry-Proofness and Discriminatory Pricing under Adverse Selection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(8), pages 2623-2659, August.
    6. Nathaniel Hendren & Camille Landais & Johannes Spinnewijn, 2021. "Choice in Insurance Markets: A Pigouvian Approach to Social Insurance Design," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 457-486, August.
    7. Casey Rothschild & Paul D. Thistle, 2022. "Supply, demand, and selection in insurance markets: Theory and applications in pictures," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 25(4), pages 419-444, December.
    8. Neale Mahoney & E. Glen Weyl, 2017. "Imperfect Competition in Selection Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(4), pages 637-651, July.
    9. Przemysław Jeziorski & Elena Krasnokutskaya & Olivia Ceccarini, 2019. "Skimming from the Bottom: Empirical Evidence of Adverse Selection When Poaching Customers," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(4), pages 543-566, July.
    10. Gunnsteinsson, Snaebjorn, 2020. "Experimental identification of asymmetric information: Evidence on crop insurance in the Philippines," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    11. Liran Einav & Amy Finkelstein & Mark R. Cullen, 2010. "Estimating Welfare in Insurance Markets Using Variation in Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(3), pages 877-921.
    12. Daniel McFadden & Carlos Noton & Pau Olivella, "undated". "Remedies for Sick Insurance," Working Papers 620, Barcelona School of Economics.
    13. Hanming Fang & Zenan Wu, 2018. "Multidimensional private information, market structure, and insurance markets," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 49(3), pages 751-787, September.
    14. Sebastian Soika, 2018. "Moral Hazard and Advantageous Selection in Private Disability Insurance," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 43(1), pages 97-125, January.
    15. Dardanoni, Valentino & Li Donni, Paolo, 2012. "Incentive and selection effects of Medigap insurance on inpatient care," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 457-470.
    16. Philippe De Donder & Marie-Louise Leroux & François Salanié, 2023. "Advantageous selection without moral hazard," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 67(1), pages 21-43, August.
    17. Sumit Agarwal & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Neale Mahoney & Johannes Stroebel, 2018. "Do Banks Pass through Credit Expansions to Consumers Who want to Borrow?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(1), pages 129-190.
    18. Liran Einav & Amy Finkelstein, 2023. "Empirical analyses of selection and welfare in insurance markets: a self-indulgent survey," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 48(2), pages 167-191, September.
    19. Minkyung Kim & K. Sudhir & Kosuke Uetake & Rodrigo Canales, 2016. "Multidimensional Sales Incentives in CRM Settings: Customer Adverse Selection and Moral Hazard," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2085, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    20. Arthur Seibold & Sebastian Seitz & Sebastian Siegloch, 2022. "Privatizing Disability Insurance," CESifo Working Paper Series 9979, CESifo.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:35:y:2022:i:2:p:720-770.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfsssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.