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Foreclosure Contagion and the Neighborhood Spillover Effects of Mortgage Defaults

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  • ARPIT GUPTA

Abstract

In this paper, I identify shocks to interest rates resulting from two administrative details in adjustable‐rate mortgage contract terms: the choice of financial index and the choice of lookback period. I find that a 1 percentage point increase in interest rate at the time of adjustable‐rate mortgage (ARM) reset results in a 2.5 percentage increase in the probability of foreclosure in the following year, and that each foreclosure filing leads to an additional 0.3 to 0.6 completed foreclosures within a 0.10‐mile radius. In explaining this result, I emphasize price effects, bank‐supply responses, and borrower responses arising from peer effects.

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  • Arpit Gupta, 2019. "Foreclosure Contagion and the Neighborhood Spillover Effects of Mortgage Defaults," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(5), pages 2249-2301, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:74:y:2019:i:5:p:2249-2301
    DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12821
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